Ted's Takes: The Setup for Pac-12's Final Weekend, Stanford in Unfamiliar Role

The stage is set for the Pac-12’s final weekend, and it's one we could not have predicted.

UCLA plays for a second South title in three years, Stanford shifts to the unfamiliar spoiler role, Arizona and Arizona State fight each other while they share a need for a Stanford win, Oregon pushes toward the national playoff, Marcus Mariota drives toward the Heisman, and, in a shock, USC and Notre Dame meet in what feels like a consolation game. 

Here are snapshots from two key games last Saturday that defined this weekend’s script.

Berkeley, Late First Quarter: Stanford 10, Cal 0

Looking to finish a scoring drive, Cal turned to its emerging runner, Daniel Lasco. As Lasco crossed the Stanford 5-yard line, Cardinal linebacker Blake Martinez drilled him, jarring the ball free into the arms of A.J. Tarpley.

Through seven conference games, Stanford’s defense had only created two takeaways. This Big Game saw the Cardinal force five Cal turnovers. 

Berkeley, Second Quarter: Stanford 10, Cal 7

Most notable in the struggles of Stanford’s offense has been the vulnerability of the Cardinal to blitzing. Kevin Hogan entered the weekend with the worst conference passer rating against the blitz (52.9 completion percentage, 127.3 rating), per STATS LLC.

Two plays in a drive that led to Stanford opening a 17-7 lead demonstrated an adjustment for the Big Game. On a second down from the 50-yard line, Cal blitzed two linebackers inside. Against a six-man rush, Hogan calmly waited for freshman Christian McCaffrey to get free over the middle and delivered a pass an instant before two Bears slammed him to the turf.

The second “blitz beater” came later in the drive on another 2nd-and-10. A swing pass to Kelsey Young in the left flat beat another six-man rush and placed Stanford inside Cal’s 20.

Given the circumstances, Hogan had arguably his best game of the season, completing 15 of 20 passes for 214 yards. For the second consecutive week, Stanford pleased its fans by using McCaffrey as an offensive weapon (three carries and two receptions). Ultimately, Stanford’s decisive win over Cal must give UCLA pause approaching the Bruins’ biggest game of the season.

Pasadena, Second Quarter: UCLA 14, USC 7 

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The Trojans had moved the ball to the UCLA 4-yard line. They scrambled to run their goal-line offense at a quick tempo.

Here is the play sequence:

• 1st-and-goal: Shotgun run by Justin Davis to the 1-yard line.
• 2nd-and-goal: Shotgun keep by Cody Kessler for minus-one yard.
• 3rd-and-goal: Shotgun pass to Davis in left flat for two-yard TD.

Three goal-line plays, three shotgun formations, zero downs for leading conference rusher Buck Allen, zero snaps from center and run formations. On the third play, there was a touchdown, but there have been many moments this year when a fan has been left wondering, "Is this USC?"

Pasadena, Second Quarter: UCLA 14, USC 14

UCLA's response to the tying touchdown was a drive that underscored the decisive win for the Bruins. Their offensive line kept Brett Hundley clean. He was sacked twice on Saturday, but USC’s defense succeeded in targeting Hundley’s running, holding him to two net rushing yards.

At midfield in this drive, that was apparent on 3rd-and-4. USC offered a controlled rush that neither pressured Hundley nor allowed him an escape. Hundley’s reaction was to calmly stand in the pocket and use the extra time to scan the field, advancing through progressions until he found Mossi Johnson for a first down.

The measure of Hundley’s play was apparent in his ability and willingness to beat USC as a pocket passer.

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Coach of the Week honors should go to UCLA defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich—the same man whose emotional snap during the Oregon game went viral. The same man, in his first year as a coordinator, whose defense had lingered in the middle of the conference rankings.

Ulbrich is also the man who lasted 10 years as an NFL linebacker and who excelled on special teams. Upon arriving at UCLA, he helped mold Anthony Barr from an H-back to a linebacker selected ninth overall in the 2014 NFL draft. 

Ulbrich and his defense won this night. The defense held USC to 62 net rushing yards, limited Nelson Agholor to 24 receiving yards as the Trojans threat occasionally saw Myles Jack opposite him as a slot defender and, until a desperation fourth-quarter drive, had kept the Trojans under 200 total yards. Who predicted that?

Consecutive plays by the Bruins defense late in the second quarter triggered the game-deciding shift.

On a 3rd-and-4 from the UCLA 38, Javorius Allen ran for a first down despite fierce pressure from UCLA’s Deon Hollins, who appeared to anticipate the snap count.

The next play, first down from the UCLA 33, saw Kessler throw a quick pass in the right flat. Again, Hollins jumped on the exact snap count, his head start allowing him to blow by tackle Zach Bonner. The immediate presence of Hollins forced a quick, high throw from Kessler; a USC receiver tipped the ball, allowing a diving Eric Kendricks to come up with the interception.

Hundley capitalized on the takeaway, orchestrating an 11-play, 68-yard drive finished by a scoring pass to Eldridge Massington, to give UCLA a 24-14 halftime lead.

Pasadena, Third Quarter: UCLA 24, USC 14

The Bruins doubled down on their touchdown that ended the first half. Taking the second-half kickoff, UCLA went 84 yards on nine plays to break open the game. 

Essential to this drive was the pass game. First was 3rd-and-7 from the UCLA 19. USC could have regained some balance had it forced a three-and-out punt to start the half. Hundley fired a left side pass to Devin Lucien, whose route had carried him beyond the line to gain. But to catch the pass, Lucien’s momentum carried him back inside the first-down marker.

USC freshman Adoree' Jackson needed to simply wrap up Lucien, even if the catch was completed, short of the first down. But Jackson took a path inside Lucien’s left hip, trying to deflect or intercept the pass. He missed the ball, and Lucien used that mistake to catch the ball and wheel upfield for first-down yardage. 

Two plays later, Hundley lofted a deep pass down the right sideline. Thomas Duarte leapt over USC’s Leon McQuay to complete a 38-yard gain. Two plays where the UCLA receiver defeated the USC defensive back eventually cemented this game.

Four plays later, Paul Perkins ran for a touchdown that gave UCLA a 31-14 lead, and the Bruins never looked back. 

UCLA vs. Stanford

This week, Stanford’s role as spoiler presents unease for UCLA. Do the Cardinal embrace this task given their fate to play in a lower-tier bowl game? Can UCLA reach the same emotional state as last Saturday?

On the field, one matchup should be the most significant in the outcome: UCLA's defensive line vs. Stanford's offensive line.

If the Bruins front can replicate the game-long pressure it applied on Kessler, it will test Hogan’s performance against the blitz.

If Stanford’s offensive line can repeat the push it employed against Cal, the Cardinal's dormant run game could relieve Hogan of the burden to make big plays.

Can Stanford find its “identity” for one day? Or does UCLA validate its dominance of USC and keep Jim Mora on track to build in Westwood what Pete Carroll brought to USC?