UFC 181 Preliminary Card Predictions

The UFC is back on Saturday with a return to pay-per-view. Headlined by two title fights, UFC 181 promises to be one of the biggest cards of the year.

The main attraction will be a welterweight title rematch between Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler, who fought in a classic bout earlier this year. It will be supported by a lightweight title bout between Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez.

UFC Fight Night 57 saw me go just .500, which basically kept my win-to-loss margin the same. We will look to improve on that subpar performance here at UFC 181.

Without further ado, here are the preliminary card predictions for this card. 

2014 Riley's Record: 163-98

Last Event: UFC Fight Night 57 (3-3)

Clay Collard vs. Alex White

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Kicking off the card will be a pair of featherweight prospects who are looking to get back into the win column, as Clay Collard looks for his first UFC win against Alex White.

Collard, a rep of The Pit Elevated, took a late-notice bout with Max Holloway in his UFC debut and fought admirably. He showed off some grittiness and an iron chin before he was eventually finished late in the fight.

He is most definitely a striker, having finished eight of his 13 wins via knockout. He even owns a win over UFC vet and Team Alpha Male's Justin Buchholz, which is his biggest victory to date.

Meanwhile, White is a boxer who has some underrated ground skills in his arsenal. Like Collard, he is also a finisher, as nine of his 10 wins have come by knockout or submission.

He started off his UFC tenure strong, knocking Estevan Payan senseless in less than 90 seconds. However, in his sophomore outing, he was put down violently by Lucas Martins in a respectable showing.

This is a tough one to call. Both guys are skilled strikers and tough as nails, so in a toss-up, I will say Collard's toughness and determination get him by White, just barely. 

Prediction: Collard def. White via decision

Matt Hobar vs. Sergio Pettis

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The bantamweights will close things out on the UFC Fight Pass portion of the card, as Matt Hobar looks to build on his most recent success when he takes on fellow prospect Sergio Pettis.

Hobar is a wrestler with good submission skills to his credit. Almost all of his wins have been by tapout, as he uses takedowns to secure positions and finish with holds.

He suffered a quick loss on late notice in his first UFC bout to Pedro Munhoz but came back in his second UFC outing against Aaron Phillips impressively. He will need to replicate what he did against Phillips in order to be successful against Pettis.

Pettis, the younger brother of UFC champ Anthony Pettis, is just 21 years old and has 12 career fights under his belt. He is a kickboxer with great kicks and quick hands but is still developing his ground game.

Though he does have a blemish on his record against Alex Caceres, Pettis has earned two decision wins over the likes of Will Campuzano and Yaotzin Meza. He will need to use movement and quickness to stay out of Hobar's takedown range.

This is a toss-up, and I really want to take Hobar based on his wrestling and persistence. However, Pettis comes out of a camp where he trains with great wrestlers, so he may be well-prepared for a 15-minute war. 

Prediction: Pettis def. Hobar via decision

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Raquel Pennington

Kicking off the prelims on Fox Sports 1 are the female bantamweights, as Raquel Pennington welcomes WSOF veteran Ashlee Evans-Smith to the Octagon. Evans-Smith replaces Holly Holm, who suffered an injury in the lead-up to this bout.

Pennington is a brawler who likes to get into dogfights, though she definitely has some unrecognized submission ability on the ground. She got her recognition on The Ultimate Fighter 18, where she scored wins over Tonya Evinger and Jessamyn Duke before falling out of the competition at the hands of Jessica Rakoczy.

She has experienced ups and downs since coming to the UFC. She edged out Roxanne Modafferi on the scorecards in a close bout before dropping another close decision to Jessica Andrade in her most recent outing.

She will want to stay off her back in this fight if she wants to be successful.

Evans-Smith is a wrestler with good determination and grit, as seen in her three pro bouts. Two of her three wins have come by finish in the third round, which shows she is in good shape and always a threat to put someone away.

Her biggest win to date was against transgender fighter Fallon Fox, whom Evans-Smith smashed with brutal ground-and-pound. That was followed up in her one WSOF bout against Marciea Allen, where she overcame adversity to finish her with ground strikes.

Pennington is as tough as they come and has showed she can hang with some tough opposition. However, when Evans-Smith gets on top, she is a wet blanket with devastating strikes. She should edge Pennington in a close one.

Prediction: Evans-Smith def. Pennington via decision

Corey Anderson vs. Justin Jones

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A light heavyweight bout is due up next, as TUF 19 winner Corey Anderson takes on late-replacement opponent Justin Jones. Jones fills in for Jonathan Wilson, who also filled in for Gian Villante, both of whom were injured in the lead-up to this bout.

Anderson is a wrestler and a boxer who cut his teeth on TUF 19, where he dominated the light heavyweight bracket. He earned decisions over Bellator vet Kelly Anundson, Josh Clark and Patrick Walsh on his way to the finals.

On the finale, he quickly knocked out Matt van Buren, which was his biggest win to date since besting Myron Dennis. That impressive win showed the great improvements he has made since moving out to New Jersey to work with Frankie Edgar.

He takes on a guy who is fighting up a weight class on about two weeks' notice. Jones is an RFA veteran known for his ground work, as seen in his pro and amateur fights where he owns four submission wins.

His biggest win to date came against John Hackleman Jr., where he slapped on a guillotine choke in just over two minutes. However, his three-fight pro experience is concerning, especially against a beast of a man like Anderson.

Prediction: Anderson def. Jones via TKO

Eddie Gordon vs. Josh Samman

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An intriguing middleweight bout is due up next, as TUF 19 winner Eddie Gordon meets up with TUF 17 veteran Josh Samman.

Gordon is a Serra-Longo Fight Team member who ran the table on his season of TUF. He used his well-rounded skills and great size to decision Matt Gabel, Mike King and Cathal Pendred on his way to the finale.

In the finale, he quickly destroyed Dhiego Lima with strikes, earning his most impressive win to date. Most of the former football player's wins have come via strikes, showing how heavy handed he is.

Samman is a physical specimen and wrestler who is finally getting back to the cage following injuries and personal setbacks. He hasn't competed since April of 2013, which could affect him in the cage.

His stint on TUF 17 was solid, as he earned knockouts of Leo Bercier and Tor Troeng, as well as tapped out Jimmy Quinlan. However, he was taken out of the competition by Kelvin Gastelum, but he earned his spot with the UFC at the finale, finishing Kevin Casey.

This should be a good scrap. Both men are well-rounded and physically strong. However, Gordon looks like the better prospect and hasn't been away from the cage as long, which will carry him in a close one.

Prediction: Gordon def. Samman via decision

Urijah Faber vs. Francisco Rivera

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Capping off the prelims will be a bantamweight bout, as Urijah Faber takes on Francisco Rivera in what should be a thriller.

Faber is a wrestler and a boxer who reps the famous Team Alpha Male gym. He has great hands and good submissions, including his trademark guillotine choke.

In his career, his only losses have come in title fights. He has been relegated to novelty fights since losing to Renan Barao for a second time, and that's what he gets in Rivera, who, though skilled, is not in Faber's league.

Rivera is a power striker. Since returning to the UFC after a failed first run, he has been a destroyer. He has knockouts of George Roop and Edwin Figueroa, although he faltered against Takeya Mizugaki in his most recent outing.

Submission defense and the ground game have been the biggest holes in his arsenal. That is where Faber will expose him, making short work of Rivera with a rear-naked choke or trademark guillotine.

Prediction: Faber def. Rivera via submission