Ole Miss vs. Arkansas: How Rebels' Loss Reshapes Playoff Picture
The Arkansas Razorbacks ended the Ole Miss Rebels' fledging quest for a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff on Saturday, cruising to a 30-0 home win over their SEC rivals.
The loss drops the Rebels to 8-3 on the season (4-3 SEC) while Arkansas improves to 6-5 overall (2-5 SEC). It was a convincing win for coach Bret Bielema's improving squad. The defense absolutely shut down Ole Miss' rushing attack, holding them to just 1.9 yards per carry as a team. They also forced a staggering six turnovers.
The Razorbacks' offense did enough to get by on the defense's heroics, with running backs Josh Williams and Alex Collins combining for 160 yards and a touchdown on 43 carries.
The upset alert was on at halftime, per SportsCenter:
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The Razorbacks killed off any chance of a Rebels comeback when Rohan Gaines picked off Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace in the third quarter and returned the ball 100 yards for a touchdown that made the score 27-0.
The Rebels entered Saturday's contest ranked eighth in the official College Football Playoff rankings, and yet had only a puncher's chance of making the playoffs.
Ole Miss once looked to be front-runners for the playoffs, but a 35-31 loss to Auburn on Nov. 1 was a huge blow to their chances.
"It was a couple day of gut-wrenching feelings around here,” Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said of the disappointing loss, via The Associated Press (h/t Washington Post). “So, the combination of all that certainly hurt, but if you don’t have the ability to move on past a big win or difficult loss, you won’t be very good for the duration."
According to FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, Ole Miss had just a 20.3 percent chance of sneaking into the CFP top four by the end of the season. Silver also gave his take on Ole Miss' narrow path to the postseason.
"Ole Miss is a longshot to make the playoff—it will have to beat Mississippi State and perhaps hope that Alabama loses also so that it can get into the SEC Championship—but it’s at the top of the pecking order as far as two-loss teams go," Silver wrote.
That scenario is no longer on the table after Saturday.
Considering the talented teams in front of them—Mississippi State, TCU, Ohio State and Baylor being the immediate impediments to a playoff spot—those slim hopes might have seemed like a non-factor to some. A two-loss SEC team is at least worthy of consideration, but three losses ends the conversation.
The disappointing Rebels loss could have an indirect effect on the playoff chances of Mississippi State, who dropped to fourth in the CFP rankings after their loss to Alabama. The SEC's carousel of upsets and losses muddles the playoff picture, and some, like NFL Network's Albert Breer, question the true depth of the conference:
A win for the Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29 is necessary for them to stay in the playoff hunt, but if they turn in a sloppy performance against an exposed Rebels squad, the playoff committee could look at that as a sign the Bulldogs ran out of steam at the end of the season.
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Oregon |
| 3 | Florida State |
| 4 | Mississippi State |
With TCU and Baylor hot on their heels and with little risk of dropping another game without a Big 12 championship contest to play, the Bulldogs can't have their schedule looking too soft.
They already rolled over weaker teams like South Alabama and Tennessee-Martin to score wins; Ole Miss looking like an also-ran rather than a legitimate top 10 or top 15 squad could hurt them in the exercise in hair splitting that will be deciding the final playoff spots.
Alabama's only loss came against the Rebels. Should the Crimson Tide botch the Iron Bowl against rival Auburn on Nov. 29, the SEC would be a nearly incomprehensible mishmash. That would be good news for the Big 12 hopefuls, as well as the Ohio State Buckeyes, who have scored impressive wins against Michigan State and Minnesota in the past few weeks and clinched a berth in the Big Ten title game.
It's a disappointing end to the season for the Rebels. Wallace wasn't able to put enough solid performances together to keep this team in the running and will likely shoulder much of the blame for what's transpired over the past few weeks.
The Razorbacks, who at one point appeared to specialize in frustrating losses to slightly-more-talented opponents, now have a couple of strong wins to build upon heading into next season.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
