What to Expect from Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers Offense in Week 12
Formulating expectations for Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers offense has proven a fool’s errand more often than not in 2014.
This will likely continue when the Washington Redskins travel to Levi’s Stadium in Week 12.
Or will it?
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The 49ers’ formula for winning games, on offense at least, is rather straightforward.
For perspective, when Kaepernick hands the ball off to running back Frank Gore at least 16 times, the 49ers are 6-0. When Gore receives 14 or fewer carries, they’re 0-4.
Kap, similarly, has averaged 29.2 pass attempts in six 49ers wins and 35.6 in the team’s four losing outcomes.
Yet there have been two games when Gore tallied single-digit touches and a pair of back-to-back sets when he notched 19 and 23 carries in total.
It’s also no coincidence that Kap's two highest passing outputs and Gore’s two lowest rushing aggregates each occurred during the same two 49ers losses.
Either offensive coordinator Greg Roman loves keeping fans on their toes or he simply over-strategizes to the point of inadvertently coughing up winnable games.
With all due respect to the veteran play-caller, we’ll err toward the latter.
But as for this week against the struggling Redskins, we expect Roman to finally buck the trend.
Gore and Carlos Hyde will lead a run-heavy offensive charge, while Kaepernick targets Washington’s vulnerable secondary with deep play-action passes to tight end Vernon Davis.
They’ll even score in the red zone—including touchdowns.
This is precisely the blueprint through which the 49ers must use en route to a 5-1 finish and wild-card berth in the playoffs.
Let’s see how it will unfold against the Redskins in Week 12.
Note: We’ll provide important statistics and an overview of the 49ers’ offensive game plan before detailing the specific players and head-to-head matchups.
Run Gore, Hit Play Action Between the 20s
So simple, yet so profound: Giving the rock to Gore and burning defenses off run fakes downfield is how the 49ers have—and must continue—to win games.
Allow us to invoke the oft-cited but always-significant number:
The 49ers are 40-2-1 when Gore amasses at least 20 carries since Jim Harbaugh became head coach in 2011.
They are indeed nearly perfect when the franchise’s all-time leading back establishes the run and shoulders the offensive load.
Add in Kaepernick’s 73 percent completion rate, 116.4 passer rating and 11 touchdowns to only one interception off play action last year, and the Niners’ game plan becomes quite clear, via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Gore will wear down Washington’s defense and bring the safeties down in the box with his 20-plus attempts.
This will free up Davis and Brandon Lloyd deep against a unit that’s already allowed the fourth-most touchdowns through the air (20) and second-most gains of 40-plus yards (nine), while totaling the fewest interceptions (three).
Albeit in limited action, Kaepernick has thrown four touchdowns next to just one pick in 62 play-action attempts this season. Three of those traveled 20 or more yards.
The Redskins, however, do rank an impressive 11th against the run. That includes just six scores given up on the ground.
Yet this defensive strength is why the 49ers will employ their own on the other side of the ball.
The Red and Gold will use this game as a momentum builder. They will use it as a platform for their seventh-ranked power-run offense with looming matchups against the Seattle Seahawks’ and Arizona Cardinals’ formidable run defenses.
These division rivals rate seventh and third, respectively, in that category.
So, instead of launching an aerial assault from the very start, Gore will serve as the driving force between the 20-yard lines.
That is, on the series in which Davis and Co. don’t secure touchdown paydirt before the 49ers make their way deep into Redskins territory.
Hammer It Home with Hyde, Johnson in the Red Zone
Even in a week when No. 21 accumulated his fewest carries of the season, the 49ers still managed a touchdown on the ground.
During a divisional bout with Arizona on Sept. 21, Gore ran just six times. Hyde had only half of that already meager total against the Cardinals’ unyielding No. 3 run defense.
But when there’s a will, there’s a way—especially when a 6’0”, 230-pound back from Ohio State is involved.
Hyde bulldozed his way for six yards and six points on a sweep off the left tackle. His complementary blend of speed and power fueled the red-zone score in Week 3.
That was a rare development for a 49ers team that ranks “31st in the NFL with a 39.4-percent touchdown rate on trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard line,” per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.
Now, can the Niners faithful count on any notable improvement versus the Redskins’ 16th-ranked red-zone defense, per TeamRankings.com, in Week 12?
With Hyde and the catch-everything Stevie Johnson, yes they can.
Roughly 25 percent of Hyde’s carries this year have come in the red zone (16 of 63). And nearly a quarter of those have gone for touchdowns (three of 16).
Similarly, almost one-fourth of Johnson’s 41 targets have materialized in the opposition’s territory. And of those eight targets, four have arrived inside the 20-yard line, with three going for scores.
The 49ers, come Sunday, will finally utilize the scoring duo of Hyde and Johnson.
Roman will call the numbers of those draft-day acquisitions inside the red zone. And both will score in the same game for the first time this year.
Hyde’s two first-half touchdowns against Washington will facilitate play-action opportunities later on for Kaepernick. Johnson, for his part, will find himself on the receiving end for one of his own.
Key Players, Pivotal Matchups
Everything begins and ends in the trenches—this phrase holds true every time out for San Francisco.
Offensively speaking, the 49ers prefer running off the left side of the line. The majority of both Gore and Hyde’s carries play out behind blocking schemes in that direction of the field.
This tandem has a combined 221 attempts on the season, with 118 of them going left.
Furthermore, 85 of the 118 have materialized behind guard Mike Iupati, tackle Joe Staley and whichever tight end is sealing off the left end (Davis, Vance McDonald or Derek Carrier).
But it’s with the blocking combination of Staley and Iupati that Gore and Hyde have scored each of the 49ers’ five rushing touchdowns this year, all per Pro Football Focus.
Concerning the Redskins, defensive tackle Jason Hatcher and outside linebacker Trent Murphy, who’s filling in for the injured Brian Orakpo, have been the team’s two strongest run defenders.
They’re actually the only two among Washington’s starting front seven who have earned positive scores from PFF.
Iupati will have the responsibility of eliminating Hatcher while Staley occupies Murphy.
Right guard Alex Boone will also find himself in the mix when pulling to the left in front of the Niners rushers. Fullback Bruce Miller, meanwhile, will help pave the way through middle linebacker Keenan Robinson.
Hyde will do his thing in the red zone by bulldozing safety Brandon Meriweather—a la Tony Jefferson in Week 3—when the appropriate time comes.
Speaking of which, the 49ers will expose both Meriweather and inside linebacker Perry Riley in coverage with Davis. This duo has surrendered nine of the Redskins’ 20 passing touchdowns.
Davis will finally pick himself off the mat and notch his first score since Week 1.
Johnson will also use crafty footwork in the red zone and beat Bashaud Breeland for the rookie corner’s fifth touchdown allowed in 2014.
Of course, Kaepernick will need time in the pocket to target his pass-catchers.
Hatcher and outside ‘backer Ryan Kerrigan have combined for 11.5 of the Redskins’ 25 sacks. They have also racked up 64 additional quarterback pressures.
Fortunately, Staley and right tackle Anthony Davis will play their part by neutralizing these dangerous pass-rushers from the equation.
They and the rest of the offensive line will build off their zero-sack effort last week against the New York Giants. Kap will do the same by releasing the ball in a timelier manner and helping lead a four-touchdown effort by the Niners offense.
Bring all these factors together and the 49ers will have used consecutive NFC East opponents to move to 7-4, boost their standing in the West and solidify their approach toward the postseason.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, ESPN and NFL.com unless otherwise noted. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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