Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings: Breaking Down Green Bay's Game Plan
Last week, with a 53-20 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Green Bay Packers vaulted to the top of the NFC North. The Detroit Lions, who beat Green Bay earlier in the season, also sit atop the division but with a tiebreaker in hand.
On the flip side, the Minnesota Vikings lost in a 21-13 effort against the Chicago Bears last weekend, allowing the Bears to move from the cellar of the North to a tie with the Vikings in third place.
To say the least, last week's stretch of games was big for everyone involved in the division.
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While no one seems to want to call Minnesota to win this week's match against the Packers, the value of a divisional game, as a tiebreaker if nothing else, is important to the future of Green Bay's season.
According to OddShark, the Packers opened up as 7.5-point favorites on the road, but the line has jumped to either 10 or 9.5 in favor of Green Bay since Sunday night. Overall, bettors are 2.5 or three points higher on Green Bay than Vegas had originally projected, which can likely be attributed to the Packers' recent hot streak.
Offensive Key: Avoid Sacks
Minnesota's defense, overall, isn't bad. On the season, it ranks 12th in the league in yards per game. Where it does its damage, though, is in big plays. In interceptions, it ranks 10th in the league for the year. In sacks, it ranks third.
Both of the ways the Vikings defense wins come from pressures, either by getting home and taking the quarterback down or by forcing a poor pass, which the Vikings secondary can take advantage of.
As noted in last week's game plan, the Packers faced a similar defense when heading into the Eagles match last week.
"The booms, though, come from the front seven. When regarding sacks, Philadelphia ranks second in the league.
As Fran Duffy of PhiladelphiaEagles.com noted in his postgame study of last week's matchup with the Panthers, Philadelphia's pass rush was a big a reason for the Eagles' prime-time victory.
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Unfortunately for the Eagles, they weren't able to net the interceptions or sacks needed to come out with a win. In a blowout, Philadelphia got a single sack and caught no passes from quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Instead, the Packers twice picked up stunts from the pass-rushing front six and executed on passes of over 25 yards. What was seen as the strength of the Eagles was negated by the Green Bay offensive line, which Pro Football Focus listed as the 10th-best offensive line in early October, when Derek Sherrod, who no longer is employed in the NFL, was starting at right tackle for the injured Bryan Bulaga.
As Pro Football Focus' Khaled Elsayed wrote, the Packers offensive line "would be higher if not forced into starting a right tackle not prepared for the intensity of life at the NFL level. As it all the starters bar the left tackle have positives overall, and even he has a significant positive in pass protection. Strong unit."
This week, the site even listed left guard Josh Sitton and rookie center Corey Linsley as Pro Bowl candidates on its Pro Bowl Cheat Sheet.
Though the unit has played well up to this point, giving Rodgers a projected 33 sacks for the season, which would be a career low for a 16-game sample for the passer, it cannot afford to take a week off—not in a season in which every divisional game carries so much weight.
This diagram is of a sack against quarterback Robert Griffin III from earlier in the season. Minnesota lines up with a man assigned to every A-, B- and C-gap, with Washington's tight end not staying back to block. What this means is that the Redskins had to play man-on-man with no error for Griffin to get the pass off.
Chad Greenway, the highlighted linebacker, had a particularly interesting assignment on the play. The call was what many call a "green dog blitz," meaning that he had the running back if he immediately ran out out of the backfield on a route but had a delayed blitz if the running back stayed in the backfield.
As the play progressed, the running back stayed in pass protection, assigning the center of the offensive line on a block. Noticing a lane, Greenway crashed through the left A-gap on Griffin's blind side.
When another linebacker, top-10 selection Anthony Barr, threw the running back, who was assigned to him in pass protection, off himself, he went straight into Greenway, effectively blocking Barr's teammate. Barr, though, was free in an even wider lane to crash in on the quarterback.
Griffin was still waiting on his tight end, who was on a corner route, to make a break on the play.
By the time he was open, it was too late. Both linebackers had met at the quarterback for a sack.
These plays are exactly why Green Bay's communication on the offensive line is crucial in the match. With an offense based on the passing game, picking up delayed blitzes and stunts will be a huge factor.
If Linsley is able to get the offensive line calls correctly, Rodgers may be laughing at the line of scrimmage, like Philly's Brandon Graham claimed he did against the Eagles, as opposed to picking himself up from a sack.
Defensive Key: Stay Consistent
When looking at Minnesota's stats, it's hard to say the offense has been doing well this season. In yards per pass, it ranks 30th in the league. When rushing the ball, it's better but still in the middle of the pack in nearly all categories. The issue is the Vikings are usually down so often that they can't even run the ball frequently, ranking 22nd in the league in rushes.
What the game comes down to defensively for the Packers is not beating themselves. On paper, unless the Vikings run it down their throat, the Packers should prevail.
The story of the 2014 Minnesota offense could be different if former NFL MVP Adrian Peterson wasn't suspended from the team. The running back was told this week that he was not going to play in any match this season, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert.
"Here is the updated news story on Peterson suspension thru at least end of 2014 season: http://t.co/HfKt86PEOP
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) November 18, 2014"
A huge blow to the offense, the Vikings' rookie quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, must now shoulder the load of the squad for the remainder of the season as the face of the franchise.
In Green Bay's first match against Minnesota this season, Bridgewater missed the game due to injury, putting quarterback Christian Ponder at the helm for the Vikings during a 42-10 loss. Without a live look at the quarterback, there are some variables that the Packers may need to factor in.
Even in college, Bridgewater's best attribute was consistency. He may not have had a hose, which could have led to his slip to the late first round, but he has the ability to pick apart the weakness of a defense if you give it to him.
On this play, the Bears gave a blitzing look, showing six men near the line of scrimmage with only five offensive linemen and a potential running back to pick them up in pass protection. Based on the pre-snap look, the ball was hot.
When only four of the six came after the quarterback, though, Bridgewater flipped the mental switch and decided he could throw the ball downfield. With a nice pocket, he had a lane to step up. Many rookies will just hit the back of their drop, gather and throw, but the Louisville product was able to step into the space like a veteran on the rep.
Eventually finding his target, Bridgewater first had to throw through a defender in his face, which he seemingly had no issue with.
He then connected with Charles Johnson, a former Packer, who found the hole in the zone coverage of the Bears. No one was around him.
Despite the blitz look in pre-snap and the man in his face during the throw, Bridgewater was able to find his man for a big gain. This is exactly what Green Bay should be worried about on Sunday.
If it makes mistakes, he'll find them. As mentioned before, the only people who can beat a red-hot Packers team are the Packers themselves.
Luckily for Green Bay fans, though, they are third in interceptions, second in takeaways and sixth in opponent passer rating this season. Overall, they play well against the pass, forcing bad throws and sacks with pressure from their tremendous rotation of athletes such as Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, Mike Neal and Nick Perry. With that many pass-rushers in a healthy rotation, those are the expected results.
While no one can play perfectly, a quality pass rush, which Chicago didn't show on the highlighted play, can mask a lot on the back end. It's up to the front of the Packers defense to rattle the rookie quarterback in this matchup.
Final Thoughts
In a highly competitive NFC North, each team needs this win. Green Bay needs it for its playoff chances, while Minnesota, with a rookie quarterback leading the team, needs it for momentum in the future.
Offensively, the Packers must stop the efficient pass rush of the Vikings, as they did to Philadelphia just one week ago. Giving quarterback Aaron Rodgers time to throw would be deadly against the Vikings, who already lost in a prime-time blowout against Green Bay this season.
On defense, the Green and Gold must simply not beat themselves. Their front seven is good enough to mask their back end's mistakes, which Teddy Bridgewater has already proved he can find at the next level. Each snap in every game is somewhat centered around luck, but if the front and back of the defense perform poorly on a rep, Bridgewater will be focused on a play that could gash the team.
If Green Bay can accomplish those goals, it can continue its hot streak and may even end Sunday as the lone leader of the NFC North.
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