1st Impressions of Top 2015 NBA Draft Prospects at State Farm Classic
Between Duke, Michigan State, Kansas and Kentucky, we saw a whole lot of future NBA talent on the floor at this year's State Farm Classic.
Many of the prospects have made strong first impressions, while, quite frankly, a few others have not.
And once again, we'll probably be looking at another giant group of one-and-done freshmen. Only unlike last year, it appears that some will have to earn bigger roles over time.
Whether they played 30 minutes or 13, I went ahead and broke down each top prospect's performance at the State Farm Classic and noted how they seem to stack up in the projected 2015 class.
Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman
1 of 12
Statistics vs. Michigan State: 17 points, 8-of-10 shooting, five rebounds, one assist, two blocks, two steals
The Good
After he shot 17-of-20 from the floor over his first two games, it was no surprise Duke went to Jahlil Okafor early against Michigan State. He finished a pick-and-roll with ease on his first offensive possession, which he followed with a flurry of post moves, including a rise-and-fire 10-foot jumper, a baseline spin for a layup and a back-to-the-basket power move on the low block.
In the second half, he showcased a beautiful drop step resulting in an unguardable layup. Okafor also scored on two catch-and-finishes and a putback—each with fluidity.
Offensively, Okafor's blend of size, footwork and touch is extraordinary. He has moves to go to and others to counter with, along with a feel for the rim inside that allows him to score from every angle.
He's now scored at least 17 points in each of his first three games without missing more than two shots in any of them.
The Bad
With just less than nine minutes left in the second half, Okafor committed a silly offensive foul trying to gain position in the post. It was silly because it was his fourth, which forced him to the bench.
Before that foul, he committed a loose-ball foul and another offensive foul in the post.
Defensively, he got taken out of a few plays while guarding pick-and-rolls—one resulted in a layup and another in a trip to the line. He also made a lazy block attempt that resulted in an unnecessary and-1.
While he'll remain a defensive asset at the college level based on his athleticism, size and monster wingspan, it's pretty clear that defense doesn't come nearly as natural to him as offense.
Overall First Impression
Okafor is at another level than any of the top prospects in Division I. He's as polished as any big man we've seen in a while, from his physical tools and skill set to his basketball IQ.
He doesn't get up very high and must improve his defense, but through three games, he looks like the safest option in the country for whoever ends up winning the lottery. Those willing to take on bigger risk for bigger potential reward will likely be drawn to Emmanuel Mudiay in China and Karl-Anthony Towns at Kentucky.
Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'7", SF, Freshman
2 of 12
Statistics vs. Michigan State: 15 points, 4-of-11 shooting, 6-of-9 free throws, six rebounds, three assists, one block, 1-of-2 three-pointers
The Good
After scoring 33 points between his first two games, Justise Winslow kept the offensive pressure on against Michigan State.
He showed off a slightly higher skill level than he's been given credit for, especially with regard to his handle. At one point, he made a pretty behind-the-back dribble and slashed to the hoop for a layup.
Otherwise, Winslow did a nice job of using his physical tools to his advantage. He finished with nine free-throw attempts, with two off a post up, two off a drive and two off a second-chance opportunity.
He also hit a catch-and-shoot three-pointer, his fourth in three games.
Winslow made a number of high-IQ assists as well—one off a pick-and-roll dish, one that hit his trailer for a three on the secondary break and one off a drive-and-kick.
Defensively, he forced a turnover and grabbed five defensive boards.
The Bad
Winslow's lack of polish was evident on a few plays. He found himself out of control in transition that resulted in a fast-break miss; he bricked a three-pointer that nearly hit backboard first and missed a bunny layup late in the game.
It was good to see Winslow connect on another three-pointer, but his jumper and perimeter-scoring arsenal seem to be lacking for a projected NBA wing.
First Overall Impression
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist with a better handle—that's essentially what I was thinking during the game. He's going to make things happen just based on his athleticism and motor. Expect the media and fans—and ultimately NBA scouts and executives—to fall in love with Winslow's two-way versatility and overall activity.
He'll need to continue improving his ball skills and expanding his offensive repertoire, but the framework is there.
Tyus Jones, Duke, 6'2", PG, Freshman
3 of 12
Statistics vs. Michigan State: 4-of-5 field goals, 17 points, 7-of-7 free throws, four assists, two steals, 2-of-3 three-pointers
The Good
It was a tale of two halves for Tyus Jones against Michigan State, with the second being the one he chose to erupt in. "I thought in the second half, Tyus was amazing," coach Mike Krzyzewski told ESPN's Andy Katz following the game.
Jones made a number of big-time plays, highlighting his mental toughness and excellent ball skills.
At one point, he got to the rack and converted a strong and-1 lefty finish. He also nailed a jumper off a ball screen and connected on a three-pointer despite getting fouled in the process.
As a facilitator, his four assists came off simple yet effective passes. Running the pick-and-roll, he did hit Jahlil Okafor once for an open layup, though the big man was fouled and went to the line.
Defensively, he used his quick hands to poke away a steal in the second half and then ultimately converted it into points the other way by finishing on the break.
The Bad
Jones deferred a bit in the first half—you didn't see much dribble penetration or offensive creativity, although maybe that's just because it wasn't called for on the sidelines.
Physically, he doesn't have that explosiveness, and based on the eye test, he's probably not going to be a strong finisher at the rim.
Defensively, he got lost on a ball screen and unsuccessfully gambled on another. Early on, he let his man rise up for an uncontested jumper that ultimately fell.
Still, Jones wasn't very bad at all in Duke's win over Michigan State.
Overall First Impression
There's a lot to like about Jones' particular game and poised approach. He's a high-IQ guy who is willing to pass before shoot, though his quickness and offensive confidence allow him to score off the dribble and with the jumper.
Unfortunately, Jones' underwhelming physical tools limit his upside, and he'll be sharing the ball with Quinn Cook, but look for him to generate plenty of buzz based on his polish and decision-making.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky ,7'0", C, Freshman
4 of 12
Stats vs. Kansas: Nine points, 4-of-8 shooting, eight rebounds, three assists, four blocks
The Good
Against Kansas, Karl-Anthony Towns showcased the skills and versatility that have some calling him a potential No. 1 overall candidate.
He hit a lefty jump hook, as well as a righty running hook in the lane. He also tossed a number of high-level passes out of the post, where he looked comfortable handling double-teams and willing to give it up.
Towns did his job on the glass as well, racking up eight boards including a lefty putback.
Defensively, he had his way with Kansas' undersized front line, blocking four shots and altering a few others.
The Bad
His ball skills are somewhat loose in traffic. Though he didn't turn the ball over, Towns fumbled the ball twice when spinning into the lane.
He also rushed and ultimately air-balled a righty hook shot in the post. It's not a surprise, but with defenders around him, he's nowhere near as fluid as he is when operating in isolation.
Overall First Impression
Towns has a complete offensive game, along with the physical tools to man the paint at the NBA level. He makes you say "wow" every now and then with a play not typically delivered by a 7-footer.
Unfortunately, with so many big men in Kentucky's rotation, he isn't going to get a chance to dominate. But in terms of long-term upside, I'm not sure there's a Division I prospect with a higher ceiling, given his skill level, two-way presence and inside-out mismatch potential.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Junior
5 of 12
Stats vs. Kansas: Seven points, 3-of-7 shooting, 10 rebounds, one block, one assist, one steal
The Good
Willie Cauley-Stein was a difference-maker inside against Kansas. He grabbed 10 boards in only 21 minutes, putting back one of them for a big highlight slam.
Defensively, he altered a number of shots and blocked one while chasing down a play.
Offensively, he scored on a catch-and-finish around the hoop, and if you could believe it, he knocked down a 17-foot jumper late in the second half.
Even some of Cauley-Stein's misses looked good, as he actually delivered a few nice post moves, only he couldn't get them to drop.
The Bad
Offensively, Cauley-Stein missed a couple of shots around the foul line and restricted area, and he bobbled a pick-and-roll. His ball skills remain a work in progress, though his footwork looks somewhat better.
However, he still isn't much of a threat to score unless he's set up, and that limits his offensive upside.
Overall First Impression
Not much has changed regarding Cauley-Stein's outlook. He projects as an interior specialist who thrives making plays without the ball, whether he's finishing, defending or rebounding.
Obviously, if he can start knocking down that 17-foot jumper on a routine basis, he'll serve a much bigger offensive purpose on the floor.
But his size, athleticism and mobility still hold plenty of NBA value. I imagine Cauley-Stein will remain in that lottery-to-mid-first-round conversation from now until June regardless of how much he adds to his repertoire.
Andrew Harrison, Kentucky, 6'6", PG, Sophomore
6 of 12
Stats vs. Kansas: 10 points, 3-of-5 shooting, four assists, two rebounds, 2-of-2 three-pointers, two turnovers
The Good
Andrew Harrison bounced back from a poor showing against Buffalo with a strong one on a much brighter stage against Kansas.
As a facilitator, he made some nice passes off the dribble, including a drive-and-kick dime to his brother and a pretty pick-and-roll feed to Dakari Johnson.
As a scorer, he nailed his only two three-point attempts, both off the catch, and he finished the game with a sweet crossover resulting in an and-1 bucket in the lane.
The Bad
Harrison looked good overall against Kansas, but he still made some questionable decisions. On one play, he attempted a fake behind-the-back pass in transition before jumping in the air and throwing it away. He also forced a bad pass resulting in a turnover on a pick-and-roll.
He ultimately shot the ball well against Kansas, but against Buffalo, he missed three pull-up jumpers, two open spot-ups and a floater.
Overall First Impression
We've seen the ups and downs of Andrew Harrison through three games early on. His size makes him tough to stop in the lane, whether he's dishing or finishing. And it allows him to rise and fire over defenders on the perimeter.
But Harrison's isn't very quick or explosive, and that seems to limit his playmaking and finishing ability. I'm not sure there's as much upside here as we once thought, but given his physical tools and skill set for the position, he'll likely remain on the first-round fence.
Dakari Johnson, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Sophomore
7 of 12
Stats vs. Kansas: 11 points, 5-of-6 shooting, three rebounds, zero blocks, one assist
The Good
Dakari Johnson lost some weight this offseason, and he appears lighter on his feet as a result.
He was awfully active in the paint against Kansas, both with the ball and without it. With it, he converted two jump hooks after bullying his way for position.
Without it, he tipped in two putbacks and finished a pick-and-roll.
Johnson doesn't have the softest hands, but his footwork has improved, and it's led to some cleaner looks inside.
The Bad
Johnson only made seven of 15 shots combined against Buffalo and Grand Canyon, as his touch still isn't the greatest. Against Kentucky, he airmailed his first shot in the post.
We also haven't seen anything from Johnson away from the rim. He doesn't appear to have a jumper, while he's just 6-of-12 from the line to start the year.
Overall First Impression
Johnson looks more fluid at both ends of the floor, and despite having lost weight, he's still a physical 7-footer on the block.
However, he doesn't jump very high, and he remains somewhat one-dimensional at the offensive end, where he can only score within a few feet from the rim, whether it's off a hook, catch-and-finish or tip-in.
Still, his size and skill hold NBA value. He'll find himself anywhere in the mid-to-late first-round conversation when draft talk starts heating up.
Trey Lyles, Kentucky, 6'10", SF/PF, Freshman
8 of 12
Stats vs. Kansas: Four points, 1-of-5 shooting, four rebounds, 0-of-2 three-pointers
The Good
Because of Kentucky's depth up front, we're probably only going to see Trey Lyles' upside in flashes. And we've seen a few early on.
His versatility has stood out the most—at 6'10", he's playing small forward out on the perimeter, where he can face and attack or stretch the floor as a shooter.
Against Kansas, his best highlight came on a two-dribble pull-up jumper he hit from the wing early in the second half. He hit a few of these in his first two games, as well as two threes off the catch prior to the State Farm Classic.
The Bad
Lyles plays a bit smaller than he is, though it doesn't help he's been forced to hang around the arc due to Kentucky's depth. Still, you can be sure skeptics will fear him becoming a tweener at the pro level.
Against Kansas, he missed his only two three-point attempts and didn't get any quality opportunities around the rim.
Overall First Impression
Lyles is definitely skilled, and he covers plenty of offensive ground, but he's not currently strong enough in any one area of the game.
On the bright side, he has comfortable shooting mechanics, a threatening handle for a big man and a nice feel in the post.
There's upside here due to that versatility, but it could be tough for him to put it all together with limited touches in Kentucky's deep rotation. My guess is that Lyles is more of a 2016 draft candidate than a one-and-done guy.
Aaron Harrison, Kentucky, 6'6", SG, Sophomore
9 of 12
Stats vs. Kansas: Eight points, 3-of-8 shooting, two assists, 2-of-3 three-pointers
The Good
Aaron Harrison had two rough games to start the year, but he bounced back with a few nice moments against Kansas.
His core strengths shined the brightest. Harrison made three pull-up jumpers with two of them coming from behind the arc.
And that's his game—Harrison projects as a perimeter-scoring specialist who can knock down shots and create them in the mid-to-long range.
The Bad
Harrison hasn't gotten to the rim (no free-throw attempts versus Kansas) or finished once he's gotten there. On one late drive, he threw a lefty layup right off the glass.
The fact that he lives on the perimeter and isn't much of a playmaker—he has two assists through three games—reduces his margin for error, as a bad shooting night could crush his effectiveness.
Overall First Impression
He's a skilled, dangerous shooter, and that will keep him on NBA radars. But we still haven't seen any standout qualities that would make you want to reach.
Coming in, we've had him ranked as a second-round prospect, and that's still how we feel three games in.
Cliff Alexander, Kansas, 6'9", PF, Freshman
10 of 12
Stats vs. Kentucky: Eight points, 2-of-7 shooting, eight rebounds, 4-of-8 free throws, zero blocks
The Good
Cliff Alexander, one of Kansas' two prized recruits, only played 12 minutes in his debut prior to the State Farm Classic, though he did rack up nine points and four boards against UC Santa Barbara.
In the first half against Kentucky, he made a few plays that highlighted his athleticism and motor, including a putback attempt that drew a foul and a successful putback on the break.
In the second half, he did a nice job of using his strength to draw a few fouls in the post, one of which sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the bench.
Alexander's signature play of the night was ultimately a money jump hook in the lane that came late in the second half.
He also grabbed eight boards in 20 minutes, something we should start getting used to, given his activity level inside.
The Bad
Against Kentucky, Alexander picked up two fouls before you could even blink. He'll have to adjust to the whistle in terms of what he can get away with physically.
It didn't help he was playing against guys with a good three inches of height on him. At one point, Dakari Johnson attempted a jump hook over Alexander, who just wasn't tall enough to contest it.
Offensively, we saw Alexander's limited ball skills on a couple of missed opportunities inside, including a baby jumper around the foul line.
Overall First Impression
Alexander is a monster physically, and even without skills, his presence on that low block is bound to be felt. He has all the tools you can't teach and room for growth in areas you can.
We're clearly talking about a project here, but if Alexander's post game improves and that shooting potential we saw in high school comes to life, the reward could be top-five worthy. Just don't expect much statistical consistency.
Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6'7", SF, Freshman
11 of 12
Stats vs. Kentucky: Six points, 2-of-3 shooting, four rebounds, 1-of-1 three-pointers, zero assists, one steal
The Good
After only logging four minutes in Kansas' opener, it was just nice to see Kelly Oubre get involved against Kentucky.
Foul trouble limited him early, but he bounced back for a nice sequence that highlighted his offensive strengths.
He scored six straight points rather quickly. Oubre's first bucket came in isolation, where he took his defender off the dribble and hit a runner in the lane. He then knocked down a corner three-pointer without hesitation right in his man's grill and followed that with a trip to the line.
The Bad
Oubre got lost badly on a pick-and-roll early on and eventually left the game after a few minutes following two quick fouls.
Outside of a short stretch that saw him score six points, he wasn't much of a factor. He only played 13 minutes despite starting.
First Overall Impression
An ESPN 5-star recruit out of high school, Oubre has only played 17 total minutes through two college games. He clearly hasn't earned the trust of coach Bill Self yet, and depending on his role moving forward, it could be tough for him to make much of an NBA sales pitch in an offense that shares the rock.
Having said that, Oubre is a stud athlete who can handle the ball, score in the mid-range and shoot from outside. The upside is there—he just looks a lot farther away from reaching it than initially expected.
Wayne Selden, Kansas, 6'5", SG, Sophomore
12 of 12
Stats vs. Kentucky: Nine points, 4-of-12 shooting, four rebounds, one assist, 1-of-4 three-pointers
The Good
Against Kentucky, Wayne Selden hit some shots he'll have to continue hitting if he wants to generate first-round interest. He knocked down three pull-up jumpers in the mid-range instead of forcing the ball into traffic.
He also converted a catch-and-shoot three in rhythm.
Outside of scoring, Selden delivered a pretty pass to Cliff Alexander that resulted in a trip to the line.
The Bad
Selden wasn't very impressive in Kansas' opener, and he started off slow against Kentucky, when he committed two bad turnovers. Both were careless. On the first, he dribbled into the corner before throwing it away. On the second, he jumped in the air with nowhere to go and tossed it out of bounds.
He also showed little ability to get to the rim. Selden isn't overly quick or crafty off the dribble, which limits his offensive creativity and keeps him out on the perimeter. And unfortunately, he's just not a good enough shooter to make a living out there.
Overall First Impression
I'm still not quite sure what he does well or better than anyone else. You like his size and strength for the position, but with an inconsistent jumper and nonthreatening attack game, Selden hasn't differentiated himself from the pack.
Unless he finds a way to establish a core strength or any consistency, don't be surprised if his name falls out of that first-round conversation.
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