College Football Playoff Standings: Week 13 Rankings and Bowl Game Projections
Ever so slightly, the playoff field is getting smaller. This week, it's all about which team gets that fourth and final spot.
For everyone else, it's bowl season. Projections are back, and we're here to give the postseason our best guess.
Here's how the two major Top 25 polls looked after Week 12. The following slides contain bowl projections heading into Week 13. Click on the links below to view the latest College Football Playoff, Associated Press and USA Today Top 25 polls.
New Orleans Bowl
1 of 39
Dec. 20, New Orleans: Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Fresno State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
ULL running back Elijah McGuire leads a rushing attack that averages 5.5 yards per carry and 230 yards per game. Fresno State gives up nearly five yards a carry. This is a de facto home game for ULL, so the Ragin' Cajuns get it done.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Projected Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette
New Mexico Bowl
2 of 39
Dec. 20, Albuquerque, New Mexico: Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee
The magic number to beat San Diego State is 21. The Aztecs have lost all five games this season when opponents score more than 21 points...and are undefeated when holding opponents to 21 points or fewer.
Can the Blue Raiders muster 22 points? We'll say yes.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Middle Tennessee
Las Vegas Bowl
3 of 39
Dec. 20, Las Vegas: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Stanford vs. Boise State
Stanford is actually fighting for bowl eligibility, but the defense is good enough to at least split the Cardinal's final two games. That's what carries Stanford in this game. The offense has been a liability, and Stanford has not been great in close games. However, 23.9 points per game is impressive. The defense puts the team on its back for a victory.
Matchup Type: Low scoring
Predicted Winner: Stanford
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
4 of 39
Dec. 20, Boise, Idaho: MAC vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Akron vs. Nevada
It's been a disappointing campaign for Akron given the preseason expectations, and Nevada is closer than you'd think to being undefeated. All four losses for the Wolf Pack have been by a touchdown or less. Quarterback Cody Fajardo is almost a one-man show for this offense. The Wolf Pack win big.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Nevada
Camellia Bowl
5 of 39
Dec. 20, Montgomery, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Bowling Green vs. South Alabama
Dino Babers' first year as Bowling Green's head coach could have gone poorly because of the season-ending hip injury to quarterback Matt Johnson. However, the Falcons are still 7-3 and have an offense that averages 33 points per game. South Alabama simply doesn't have the offense to keep up.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Bowling Green
Miami Beach Bowl
6 of 39
Dec. 22, Miami: BYU vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: BYU vs. Cincinnati
BYU has been able to get back on track with two straight wins, but it has been without starting quarterback Taysom Hill for a little over a month.
The Bearcats like to throw the ball around and can put up about 37 points a game. They can also give up a lot of points. Still, without Hill, BYU isn't the same team.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Cincinnati
Boca Raton Bowl
7 of 39
Dec. 23, Boca Raton, Florida: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: UAB vs. Central Michigan
Central Michigan running back Thomas Rawls has had a great year up until the past few weeks while being hampered with a knee injury. Fully healthy, he runs through a UAB defense that gives up 4.36 yards per rush.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Central Michigan
Poinsettia Bowl
8 of 39
Dec. 23, San Diego: Navy vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Navy vs. Utah State
Obviously, Navy can rack up yards on the ground, but Utah State's defense is disciplined and one of the best in the country against the run, allowing just 2.97 yards per carry. The Aggies have still been solid on offense—about 27 points per game—despite losing quarterback Chuckie Keeton again to a season-ending injury.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Utah State
Bahamas Bowl
9 of 39
Dec. 24, Nassau, Bahamas: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: Marshall vs. Toledo
I stand by my assertion that Marshall isn't going to get a Group of Five slot in a major bowl, so a trip to the Bahamas is deserved.
Marshall averages nearly 300 rushing yards a game, and Toledo's defense gives up 31.6 points per game. The Herd have been blowing out opponents all year, and this one feels the same way.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Marshall
Hawai'i Bowl
10 of 39
Dec. 24, Honolulu: Conference USA vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: UTEP vs. Air Force
As you'd expect, Air Force ranks eighth in the country with 288 rushing yards per game. UTEP, on the other hand, allows more than five yards per carry. This one feels like it could get out of hand rather quickly.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Air Force
Heart of Dallas Bowl
11 of 39
Dec. 26, Dallas: Big Ten vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: Rutgers vs. Rice
Rice could be struggling down the stretch after a blowout loss to Marshall. The Owls don't have a particularly potent offense, but Rutgers is giving up about 29 points per game.
Still, this game comes down to whether the Scarlet Knights can make good decisions on offense and not turn the ball over. Even if Rutgers does turn it over, can Rice capitalize?
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Rutgers
Quick Lane Bowl
12 of 39
Dec. 26, Detroit: Big Ten vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Maryland vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
The season-ending injury to receiver Stefon Diggs, a lacerated kidney, is a big blow to a Maryland team that has really struggled to stay healthy. Western Michigan has been a great turnaround story from its 1-11 season in 2013 and has the best scoring offense in the MAC.
In an upset, the Broncos just edge the Terps in a shootout.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Western Michigan
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl
13 of 39
Dec. 26, St. Petersburg, Florida: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Central Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Central Florida quarterback Justin Holman against Virginia Tech's pass defense will be the matchup to watch. The Hokies have perhaps the best player on the field in cornerback Kendall Fuller.
Virginia Tech has had zero luck with injuries at the running back spot, which means it could be up to quarterback Michael Brewer to carry the offense.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: UCF
Military Bowl
14 of 39
Dec. 27, Annapolis, Maryland: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: East Carolina vs. North Carolina State
NC State gets the bid in order to avoid a rematch between East Carolina and Virginia Tech. The Pirates have dropped two in a row and are headed toward a disappointing end of the season. Containing NC State quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a challenge, but the Wolfpack have allowed 15 passing touchdowns this season. East Carolina's offense does some damage.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: East Carolina
Sun Bowl
15 of 39
Dec. 27, El Paso, Texas: ACC vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Louisville vs. Utah
The Utes got back on track defensively against a struggling Stanford team in a 20-17 overtime win. Since Louisville is without starting quarterback Will Gardner for the rest of the season, Utah is able to control the game defensively.
Louisville's defense still has former coach Charlie Strong's stamp on it, so expect a low-scoring struggle.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Utah
Independence Bowl
16 of 39
Dec. 27, Shreveport, Louisiana: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: North Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech has a solid pass defense that gives up just six yards per attempt and has forced 17 interceptions. The Tar Heels have one of the worst scoring defenses in the country, giving up 41 points per game.
This game could be a shootout, but the Bulldogs have enough defense to win.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Louisiana Tech
Pinstripe Bowl
17 of 39
Dec. 27, Bronx, New York: ACC vs. Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Boston College vs. Penn State
If you like defense—or, rather, hate offense—then this might be the game for you. And seeing as it will take place in New York in late December, your sick fantasy of a 9-6 final score in cruddy conditions is very much a possibility.
Protection has been shaky for Penn State up front all season, but Temple isn't particularly good at getting in the backfield. That gives quarterback Christian Hackenberg enough time to make a few plays.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Penn State
Holiday Bowl
18 of 39
Dec. 27, San Diego: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Iowa vs. USC
USC has a ton of offensive playmakers, from Nelson Agholor and Juju Smith in the passing game to Buck Allen in the ground attack. Iowa has been involved in a couple of shootouts, but the Hawkeyes haven't faced an offense like the Trojans.
Away from the skill positions, this game would feature two potential first-round picks in Trojans defensive tackle Leonard Williams and Iowa offensive tackle Brandon Scherff.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: USC
Liberty Bowl
19 of 39
Dec. 29, Memphis, Tennessee: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Texas vs. LSU
Texas is starting to find its identity after winning three in a row and four of its last five. The defense is still solid, but the offense is beginning to put points on the board.
LSU is used to playing in low-scoring, close games, but quarterback Anthony Jennings has been such a liability for the Tigers.
No, there won't be a ton of points. It may even be ugly. But Texas' offensive improvement is the difference.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Texas
Russell Athletic Bowl
20 of 39
Dec. 29, Orlando, Florida: Big 12 vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Clemson
This has been a disappointing season for Oklahoma and Clemson. Both had high hopes but have had quarterback injuries and unexpected losses.
How Oklahoma's offense compares to Clemson's defensive line will be the matchup to watch. Tigers defensive end Vic Beasley is fierce and quick off the edge. But Oklahoma has an athletic defensive front as well. There could be more defense than anticipated.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Texas Bowl
21 of 39
Dec. 29, Houston: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: West Virginia vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M fans may prefer to see Texas in this slot, but given the messy divorce from the Big 12 a few years ago, it wouldn't be surprising if the powers that be made sure this didn't happen. Chip Brown of Horns Digest reports that a Longhorn-Aggie matchup is unlikely.
West Virginia's offense has been a little less explosive over the past few weeks, but some additional bowl practices, coupled with a fast track indoors, may be just what the doctor ordered. Texas A&M's defense is a liability, but there's so much athleticism and the Mountaineers are one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Texas A&M
Music City Bowl
22 of 39
Dec. 30, Nashville, Tennessee: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Auburn vs. Duke
Auburn scored just seven points against Georgia, but that's more of a rarity than a common occurrence. Also, the Tigers remain one of the best rushing teams in the nation with 273 yards per game. Duke gives up 4.4 yards per rush, so that's a bad matchup for the Blue Devils.
Both offenses should be able to score plenty, but Auburn's quick-strike ability is the difference.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Auburn
Belk Bowl
23 of 39
Dec. 30, Charlotte, North Carolina: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Notre Dame vs. Florida
Florida coach Will Muschamp will "step down" after season's end, but the Gators can still get to a bowl game so long as they beat Eastern Kentucky. Florida has forced 18 turnovers this season, and it feels like Notre Dame has turned the ball over 18 times in a couple of different games.
The question would be whether the Gators could capitalize on those mistakes given their offensive struggles. Florida is able to run the ball well enough to grind out a victory.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Florida
San Francisco Bowl
24 of 39
Dec. 30, Santa Clara, California: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Minnesota vs. Arizona
Though Rich Rodriguez's offenses have always been known for the run, the Wildcats rank No. 14 in the country in passing yards. Minnesota has prided itself on defense, but it gave up some huge plays to Ohio State in Week 12—in the snow, no less. That's not a great look.
However, tight end Maxx Williams is a major scoring weapon and causes fits all day.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Minnesota
Peach Bowl
25 of 39
Dec. 31, Atlanta: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: Ole Miss vs. Colorado State
There hasn't been any love for Group of Five teams in the playoff polls, but Colorado State is beginning to creep into the other polls. An undefeated Marshall would seem like a logical choice, but the committee hasn't budged on its stance with the Thundering Herd.
The Rams have a lot of talent and skill on offense, led by quarterback Garrett Grayson, but the Rebels defense should be able to contain it. Colorado State may get a few shots early, but for 60 minutes, Ole Miss' defense will get the job done.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
Fiesta Bowl
26 of 39
Dec. 31, Glendale, Arizona: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: UCLA vs. Ohio State
If Ohio State barely misses the playoff, it could be the team that tries to show the selection committee it made the wrong choice in its bowl game. Head coach Urban Meyer is already campaigning that his team is playing as well as anyone in the country.
"I challenge any team in the country that wants to schedule this one in November," Meyer said, via Brian Bennett of ESPN.com. "Have at it."
On a fast track indoors, Ohio State's skill players should be able to make big plays. Put the Buckeyes defensive line against UCLA's offense, which has allowed three sacks per game, and the results could be bad.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Orange Bowl
27 of 39
Dec. 31, Miami: ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Predicted Matchup: Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State
Georgia Tech's triple-option yields, obviously, one of the best rushing attacks in the country, but quarterback Justin Thomas is a decent enough passer. Mississippi State's defense gives up a lot of yards—418 a game—but only allows 20 points per game.
For one reason or another—likely the 15 extra practices—teams have been fairly successful against Georgia Tech in bowl games. The Bulldogs have enough offense with quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Josh Robinson to pull away.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Mississippi State
Outback Bowl
28 of 39
Jan. 1, Tampa, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Quietly, Missouri is 8-2 and controls its SEC East destiny. I say quietly because, well, folks would rather not talk about losing to Indiana at home. They'd rather sit in awkward silence.
Anyway, the question will be whether the Tigers can slow down Nebraska's do-it-all running back, Ameer Abdullah. Also, Missouri quarterback Maty Mauk has been inconsistent, to say the least. The Huskers have an edge.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Nebraska
Cotton Bowl
29 of 39
Jan. 1, Arlington, Texas: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: TCU vs. Michigan State
TCU has playmakers for days on offense. Finally, those players have an offensive coaching staff to match. Michigan State has the offense capable of a lot of points, and the Frogs defense is more vulnerable than you'd think. Because of that, the scoreboard could be busy.
However, the Spartans have been in two big games this season against Oregon and Ohio State. Both were shootouts, with the Ducks and Buckeyes scoring 46 and 49 points, respectively. Michigan State lost both games.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: TCU
Citrus Bowl
30 of 39
Jan. 1, Orlando, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Wisconsin vs. Georgia
If you like great running backs, you'll probably want to tune in to the Citrus Bowl. Though Georgia's Todd Gurley is done for the season with a knee injury, freshman Nick Chubb has been a breakout star. He'll square off opposite Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin, who currently has more rushing yards in one game (408 vs. Nebraska) than Wake Forest has as a team (341).
It's difficult to figure out what to make of the Bulldogs. One day, they're giving up 418 rushing yards to Florida; the next, they're blowing out Auburn 34-7.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Georgia
Rose Bowl
31 of 39
Jan. 1, Pasadena, California: CFP No. 2 vs. CFP No. 3
Predicted Matchup: Oregon vs. Florida State
Whether Florida State or Oregon is the No. 2 or No. 3 seed matters little, but the two seem interchangeable at the moment.
The question here is this: If Oregon gets off to a fast start, can Florida State mount another comeback? The Seminoles have been able to do it a handful of times this season, most recently against Miami. But Oregon is at another level offensively than any team the Seminoles have played.
Florida State may actually be the best team in the country. When this team is clicking on all cylinders, it doesn't look like anyone can stop it. But at what point do the slow starts finally catch up?
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Oregon
Sugar Bowl
32 of 39
Jan. 1, New Orleans: CFP No. 1 vs. CFP No. 4
Predicted Matchup: Alabama vs. Baylor
Alabama is arguably college football's hottest team after beating No. 1 Mississippi State in Week 12. It's that No. 4 spot that's up for grabs, though. Considering how highly the committee thinks of TCU, being the team that beat the Frogs, even with a "co-champion" title, could be enough to give Baylor an edge.
Statistically speaking, Baylor has a better defense than it'll get credit for, and the Bears are crazy athletic along the defensive front. However, so is Alabama, and the Bears have some injuries along the offensive line. Blitz quarterback Bryce Petty and you can get some results.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Armed Forces Bowl
33 of 39
Jan. 2, Fort Worth, Texas: American Athletic vs. Army
Predicted Matchup: Houston vs. Cal
Houston has the ninth-best scoring defense in the country, allowing 17.7 points per game. Part of that may be the competition, but the Cougars defense has nevertheless picked off 16 passes this year. That means Cal's Bear Raid offense could succumb to some turnovers.
But if points start piling up, give me Cal's offense in this one.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Cal
TaxSlayer Bowl
34 of 39
Jan. 2, Jacksonville, Florida: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Tennessee vs. Miami
Miami's mix of running back Duke Johnson and quarterback Brad Kaaya provides a potent, balanced attack capable of scoring points. While Tennessee has plenty of offensive talent of its own, Hurricanes linebacker Denzel Perryman is a major playmaker on defense.
Miami is good at getting in the backfield, averaging about 2.5 sacks per game, and the Vols are one of the worst teams in the country at giving up sacks.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Miami
Alamo Bowl
35 of 39
Jan. 2, San Antonio: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Kansas State vs. Arizona State
Arizona State coughed on up against Oregon State, but the Sun Devils still have plenty of offensive weapons and a defense that has surpassed expectations. Kansas State doesn't have many star players outside of receiver Tyler Lockett, but it has one of the better defenses in the Big 12.
Kansas State does a great job of controlling the tempo of the game, maybe better than anyone in the country, but Sun Devils wide receiver Jaelen Strong is emerging as one of the best wide receivers in the FBS. He makes a few crucial plays to be the difference.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Arizona State
Cactus Bowl
36 of 39
Jan. 2, Tempe, Arizona: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Michigan vs. Washington
Washington hasn't been consistent on offense, and quarterback play has been average. If there's any stat that shows that, it's linebacker Shaq Thompson being the team's second-leading rusher with 456 yards.
But put the Huskies' athletic and formidable defensive front seven against Michigan's offense? Yikes. Washington might finish with eight sacks.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Washington
Birmingham Bowl
37 of 39
Jan. 3, Birmingham, Alabama: SEC vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: South Carolina vs. Memphis
Memphis is bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. That's a credit to head coach Justin Fuente, who has turned around a once-abysmal program.
The strength of this Tigers team is the defense, whereas the Gamecocks have one of the worst defenses in the country, giving up 32.7 points per game. Motivated to be back in a bowl, Memphis grabs the upset.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Memphis
GoDaddy Bowl
38 of 39
Jan. 4, Mobile, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Both offenses run the ball well, averaging more than 200 yards on the ground each game. Statistically, in terms of strength, these are two teams that are about as even as you're going to get. We'll say Huskies quarterback Drew Hare, who has accounted for 19 touchdowns to just one interception, is the difference-maker.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Northern Illinois
College Football Playoff Championship
39 of 39
Jan. 12, Arlington, Texas: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Predicted Matchup: Alabama vs. Oregon
Oregon is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging about 7.7 yards per play. However, Alabama has a defense that comes fairly close to cutting that number in half. Additionally, the Tide allow just 14.5 points per game.
The Ducks could still get some yards and points, but Alabama has the talent and offensive coordinator, Lane Kiffin, to open up the playbook and score points as well. If it's a close game, give me Alabama's power running game.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
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