Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints will try to avoid losing three straight home games for the first time since 2005 when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. The Saints have dropped their past two games at the Superdome despite being favored by six points or more both times, and the last time they lost three in a row there came when the team finished 3-13.

Point spread: The Saints opened as three-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.9-24.8 Ravens

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens were off last week, and they have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games following a bye. While they were not playing particularly well before the bye, dropping two of their last three games, they return to find themselves in the thick of the AFC North race and facing a New Orleans team that is clearly struggling.

The Superdome has not been the same dominant home field it used to be, so Baltimore should feel confident based on how the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals played there the last couple weeks. It also helps that the Ravens are 5-1 straight up and against the spread in the past six meetings, which should give them even more confidence.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints were surprisingly never in the game last Sunday against the Bengals, which was not the case the previous week when they lost to the 49ers in overtime after rallying back from a 21-10 halftime deficit. Defensively, they are having a difficult time, surrendering 27 points in consecutive losses at home.

But Baltimore is not as good offensively as Cincinnati or San Francisco, and quarterback Joe Flacco can be pressured into making bad decisions, especially on the road. The key for New Orleans is getting its pass rush back on track like it was in wins over the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers before the two-game skid.

Smart Pick

The Saints are a much better team than they have shown in their last two games at home. Just think about how good the Packers have looked in their past two at home, then remember how bad they played in a 44-23 loss at New Orleans a month ago. The same can be said about the Denver Broncos last week in their road loss to the St. Louis Rams or the New England Patriots at the start of the season.

Every team goes through a slump at some point, and keep in mind that this New Orleans team went 8-0-1 ATS in its previous nine games as a home favorite before failing to cover three of their past four at the Superdome. Expect the Saints to come through with a huge effort Monday night.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in five of Baltimore's last six games on the road.
• New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last six games when playing Baltimore.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.