College Fantasy Football: Who's The No. 1 Draft Pick?

Here is an in-depth look at who you should consider in the top spot of your All-FBS (120 school) college fantasy football league drafts.

Assumptions

10 team league
Head-to-Head league (not total points)
Starters: 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR (TE, PK and DE are not relevant to this discussion).
Scoring: 1pt per 25 passing yds, 1pt per 10 rush/rec yards, 4 pts per passing TD, 6 pts per rush/rec TD.

Cast of Characters:

Case Keenum (QB Houston)
Tim Tebow (QB Florida)
Colin Kaepernick (QB Nevada)
Andre Anderson (RB Tulane)
Dez Bryant (WR Oklahoma State)

2008 Fantasy Points

QB Case Keenum—Houston: 506
QB Colin Kaepernick—Nevada: 446
QB Tim Tebow—Florida: 420
WR Dez Bryant—Oklahoma State: 262
RB Andre Anderson—Tulane: 154

What’s the scoop?

All three QB’s have many of the tools they used in 2008 returning to aid their 2009 campaigns. Case Keenum has the most weapons returning, as well as the best SOS rating.

Colin Kaepernick lost his top two receiving targets, but he returns two stud RB’s and the most experienced o-line of the trio. Tim Tebow is, well…Tim Tebow. The talented Percy Harvin has been lost to the NFL, but there is more than enough talent to surround Super Man in 2009.

Dez Bryant injured his knee in the Holiday Bowl, but his surgery went well and he is expected to be back at 100 percent come fall camp. Bryant is the hands down best WR in this year’s draft.

Andre Anderson injured his knee in the week nine matchup with Rice. He will be healthy come fall, has a good OL in front of him, and will be the centerpiece of the Tulane offense this fall. The Conference USA also provides a favorable SOS for Anderson to bash his way through defenses.

POS	NAME	SCHOOL	PPG	VALUE	O-LINE	SOS
QB	Case Keenum	Houston	33.60	145.1	9.4	105
WR	Dez Bryant	Okla. St.	24.87	118.8	17.2	114
RB	Andre Anderson	Tulane	24.73	91.8	11.8	88
QB	Colin Kaepernick	Nevada	28.44	83.2	12.4	90
QB	Tim Tebow	Florida	27.05	66.5	10.2	22

If your fantasy draft was today (07/29/09)...

As you view the projection chart based on draft value rating, you see that QB’s Tebow and Kaepernick are at the bottom of the list. Both of these players should be top 5-8 picks, but when drafting in the No. 1 spot you have to get the most value for your selection. So it’s a no-brainer to eliminate these two.

The next question revolves around WR Bryant and RB Anderson. Both players offer high value, but Bryant clearly has the edge. There is a much larger gap between him and the rest of the WRs than you see with Anderson and the rest of the RBs. Anderson will be a great pick in the back half of the first round. We recommend holding off on Anderson because of the close grouping of RB talent in this year’s draft.

Bryant will be a great pick, but it’s too hard to pass on a player like Keenum that will only out-produce his 2008 numbers. Keenum is the hands down favorite here, and there should be no discussion otherwise. Just draft him and enjoy the Playstation-like numbers!

After drafting Keenum in the No. 1 spot, you now much watch who’s left on the board for your second and third round picks.

A running back is a must, and you will be forced to take whoever is left on the board. The problem becomes what to do with the third round pick. Since the run on top tier RBs has likely already taken place, it might be a good idea to draft two RBs in this position. The problem is that you will have to skip on a top flight WR, and settle for a lower first tier WR in the fourth round. Now you will have settled for two second tier RBs and (eventually) a lower first tier WR.

Therefore, we recommend you draft an elite caliber WR with your third round pick. The value for these players is too high to pass on. There’s such a drop off in the stability of WRs when it comes to fantasy production. It's better to get yourself a stud WR, then wait a while before drafting another. This will allow you to reload your RBs somewhere in the fourth and fifth rounds.

Todd DeVries is the founder of CollegeFootballGeek.com, your premier destination for all things college fantasy football.