Biggest Red Flags of the 2014-15 NBA Season
It's far too early for NBA fans to panic, too soon for most to even worry. There is so much basketball left to be played, so many plot twists that could still shake the basketball world to its core.
That's why it's so difficult to draw any sort of conclusions during the middle of November. Strong starts can fizzle out, slumps can be busted and player movement of any kind—injuries, trades, even midseason signings—can alter the NBA landscape.
That being said, enough time has passed for the perspicacious eye to pick up on the red flags being raised. While not definitive evidence of season-long problems, these are warning signs of potential trouble ahead.
All teams have issues, but it's the struggles of the elites that could have the biggest impact on the 2014-15 season. Whether fighting to fix a leaky defense, trying to spark an inconsistent offense or hoping for relief from the injury imp, these on-paper contenders are attempting to keep their concerns from becoming full-fledged nightmares.
Not all of these red flags may still be flying at season's end. But the ones that are could have a major impact on the crowded championship field.
Blazers Still Searching for a Bench
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The Northwest Division is the Portland Trail Blazers' to lose. Four of the Western Conference's five teams with a sub-.400 winning percentage call the Northwest their home.
Portland should not have any problems punching its second straight playoff ticket. But with LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews all slated to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, the Blazers need to be dreaming bigger than a postseason return.
Their starting five is as talented as any. Aldridge and Lillard share the superstar roles, Matthews embraces the three-and-D role, Lopez is the ultimate hustler and Nicolas Batum morphs his versatile skills however they are needed on a nightly basis.
But the bench is a different story. The Blazers had the league's worst-scoring reserve unit last season (23.6 points per game), per HoopsStats.com, and they have only made marginal improvements this time around (27.4 points, 24th).
Chris Kaman has filled in nicely as Portland's first big off the bench, averaging 10.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 19.5 minutes a night. But C.J. McCollum, who has struggled with his shot (37.2 field-goal percentage), will be sidelined for at least the next four weeks with a fractured right index finger, the team announced Tuesday. Steve Blake hasn't been much of an offensive threat (37.5 field-goal percentage) and former No. 5 pick Thomas Robinson has fallen out of Terry Stotts' rotation (8.0 minutes per game).
As good as Portland's starters are, they need more help from the guys behind them.
Raptors' Ball-Stopping Offense
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From the outside looking in, it might seem as if the Toronto Raptors are doing everything right.
They are one of four teams—and the only one in the Eastern Conference—with a winning percentage of .800-plus. They are one of only three teams with top-eight efficiency rankings on both sides of the ball.
Yet, things really haven't gone according to coach Dwane Casey's plan. He was hoping to see "a free-flowing offence that relies on ball movement," according to the National Post's Eric Koreen. The Raptors have the league's lowest assist percentage (48.7) and rank 22nd in passes per game (286.0), per NBA.com's player tracking data.
Toronto's starting backcourt tandem of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry dished out 11.4 assists a night last season. That number has fallen to 8.3 this time around. Reserve point guard Greivis Vasquez, who averaged 3.7 helpers during 61 games with Toronto last season, has managed only 2.1 assists per contest.
The ball is stopping more than it should. DeRozan is attempting a team-high 16.7 shots a night despite his 41.3 field-goal percentage. Lowry has fired off 4.2 long-range looks a night while converting only 31.0 percent of them. Vasquez ranks second on the team with 16.5 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes, and he's shooting a career-worst 34.1 percent from the floor.
The Raptors still have top-tier marks to their name, but better ball movement might help keep them around once their competition stiffens.
Scoring Is a Grind for the Grizzlies
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It's almost a cliched tale in the sports world. The Memphis Grizzlies use an elite defense to force their way into the playoff hunt. Analysts worry whether the team has enough offensive firepower to survive under the bright lights.
Rinse. Repeat.
This season is no exception. Memphis has opened a few more eyes with its 10-1 record, but this team is still establishing its dominance at the defensive end (fifth in efficiency) and fighting for respectability at the offensive end. Before blowing out the Houston Rockets on Monday night, the Grizz were ranked 17th in offensive efficiency.
That's an issue, because history says teams need two-way balance to successfully navigate the treacherous waters of playoff basketball. Of the past 10 NBA champions, all of them have had top-10 defensive efficiency rankings and nine have held top-10 rankings at the opposite side. The only exception, the 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers, finished with the 11th-best offensive rating.
The Grizzlies need to a lethal offensive punch not only to hang with the elites, but also to help them put lesser teams away. Despite what their record suggests, they haven't exactly pulled away from the field.
"The Grizzlies have a relatively paltry plus-5.1 differential, good for sixth-best in the West," wrote ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton on Nov. 17 (subscription required). "They've gotten to 9-1 by winning five games by five points or fewer. ... On average a team with the Grizzlies' point differential would have a 7-3 record thus far."
Memphis has a wrecking ball underneath with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. But it needs Mike Conley (42.5 field-goal percentage) and Vince Carter (35.5) to pose a bigger threat from the perimeter for this club to reach full-fledged contender status.
Cavaliers' Wavering Defensive Focus
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Before the Cleveland Cavaliers had even unleashed the NBA's newest superpower, the basketball world had some ideas about what to expect.
Even if it needed some time to come together, Cleveland's offense had explosive potential. Between LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, the Cavs have three of last season's top 15 scorers. The talent is in place for this group to become historically special.
On the opposite side, it was tough to completely quiet concerns about this defense. Between Love, Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao, the Cavs had three players who averaged a combined 1.5 blocks last season. And that essentially made up Cleveland's rim protection, a group that already appeared vulnerable working behind Irving and Dion Waiters.
The only hope was that the Cavs could give the kind of championship-level effort this roster needed to mask its interior deficiencies. That effort has been erratic on the good nights, nonexistent on the worse ones.
"We're definitely talented. It's just about going out and doing it on a consistent basis," Shawn Marion told Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick. "We show signs, but it's not consistent yet."
The Cavs currently rank 26th in defensive efficiency (108.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) and 28th in field-goal percentage allowed (48.4). Cleveland's opponents have converted a league-high 65.4 percent of their shots within five feet of the basket.
Defending the rim will never be easy with this roster in place. But the Cavs could put themselves in a much better position by hounding the ball, sealing off passing lanes and stopping attacks before they even start.
Warriors' Turnover Woes
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At 8-2, the Golden State Warriors are off to their best start since 1975-76. While it's tempting to praise head coach Steve Kerr and his heavyweight staff for helping the team explode out of the gate, the truth is this still looks quite a bit like last season's 51-win outfit.
"The hyped-up Warriors resemble what they were last season—a killer defensive team with a starry offense that doesn’t produce at a level matching the talent," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe.
Golden State sits third in defensive efficiency, or exactly where it finished the 2013-14 campaign. The Warriors have climbed to seventh at the opposite end—they were 12th last season—though racking up 263 points in two early meetings with the Los Angeles Lakers may have inflated that standing a bit.
The Warriors have become a better, more active passing team. They are fifth in assist percentage (63.8) and ninth in passes per game (322.5), categories in which they ranked 12th and 30th last season, respectively.
But one constant that remains is this team's trouble with turnovers. It averaged 15.2 a night in 2013-14, which tied for the eighth-most. This year, it's up to 19.7 giveaways per game, tops in the league.
The Dubs have the makings of a title team, but only if they can put these problems behind them.
"Something has to happen, because turnovers are the one thing keeping the Warriors from profiling as full contenders," Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote. "Of the last five title winners, none have turned the ball over during the regular season at a rate above 14.5 percent."
Golden State currently owns a 17.9 turnover percentage.
This needs to get fixed, but combating the problem won't be easy. The Warriors cannot afford to limit their offensive creativity. But they need to mesh their imagination with an appreciation for the value of each possession, or they'll be left looking like last season's squad: a good team, not a great one.
Derrick Rose's Health
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Former MVP Derrick Rose is right to play it patient. After essentially missing each of the last two seasons due to serious knee injuries, no one knows better than him how quickly his career could come to an end.
So, he's not taking any short-term chances that could have long-lasting effects. He listens to his body and does whatever he feels it can take.
"I know a lot of people get mad when they see me sit out or whatever, but I think a lot people don't understand that ... when I sit out it's not because of this year," he told reporters after practice last Tuesday. "I'm thinking about long term.
"I'm thinking about after I'm done with basketball."
It's his decision to make. And it's hard to argue against someone thinking about their future well-being.
"Rose is a person, an entertainer gifted enough athletically and willing to put in the work to become an NBA player, an MVP," wrote NBC Sports' Kurt Helin. "That has provided him a very comfortable lifestyle and a lot of fame. But that alone should not define him — there are things that are more important. He is not there to sacrifice his body for our entertainment."
Again, it's hard to fault Rose for his actions or the thoughts behind them. What he's doing makes sense.
But it still carries some major on-court concerns. He has only appeared in five of the team's first 10 contests, and Rose missed his sixth game Monday night with an injured hamstring.
The Bulls (8-3) have survived without him. But they've been a wrecking ball when he's played (plus-15.4 net rating with him on the floor) and a mediocre team when he's sat (plus-3.3).
Chicago needs a healthy, active Rose to make a championship run. He'll have to balance the demands on his present with his vision for the future.
Glaring Hole on Clippers' Perimeter
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The Los Angeles Clippers have almost completed their championship puzzle.
Chris Paul has cemented his place as the NBA's top point guard with an otherworldly 7.0 assist-to-turnover ratio and a gaudy 47.9 field-goal percentage. Blake Griffin's combination of scoring (23.1 points) and setup skills (3.7 assists) have kept him in the running for the game's best power forward. DeAndre Jordan's 12.4 rebounds, 2.8 blocks and 1.4 steals have put him in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion.
L.A. also has one of the league's elite coaches in Doc Rivers, plus a pair of incendiary shooters in J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford.
But the Clippers have struggled to find even a serviceable option at small forward.
Matt Barnes hasn't had any consistency from the field (38.9 percent) or from deep (32.4). And he's giving up a lot more than he's getting, as evidenced by the 20.9 player efficiency rating he's allowing to opposing 3s, per 82games.com.
L.A. has tried giving Crawford a look at the spot, but there are defensive drawbacks to playing Redick and Crawford together. Backup Chris Douglas-Roberts has been dealing with a strained Achilles that has him sidelined for the foreseeable future.
The Clippers were supposed to be among the West's elites, but Redick recently noted those clubs are "in a different tier than us," per Dan Woike of the Orange County Register.
No matter how much the Clippers have going for them, it's hard to envision them realizing their championship ceiling without finding a miracle cure for their small forward problems.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are current through Monday, Nov. 17.
