Sacramento Kings Betting on Rudy Gay-DeMarcus Cousins Duo for Successful Future

Over the past few seasons, Rudy Gay has become something of a poster child for the analytics movement. He's a player so pulling and polarizing, it’s a wonder the Sacramento Kings forward ever even held his own, lone orbit within the greater NBA galaxy.

Now, thanks to a three-year, $40 million extension, per Yahoo Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski, Gay is poised to become a beaming body in one of the league's youngest, brightest solar systems.

The contract will keep the 28-year-old swingman in Sacramento through at least the 2016-17 season, the same year the NBA’s new $24 billion TV deal takes effect. At that point, Gay can choose whether to return to the Kings or become an unrestricted free agent.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The way things are looking now, the former seems as safe a bet as it’s ever been. Following a promising 6-4 start, the Kings, led by Gay and fifth-year stud center DeMarcus Cousins, have emerged as an early surprise of the 2014-15 season.

Ten games do not a conference contender make, though—impressive wins over the Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs notwithstanding.

Still, for a franchise long mired in the Association’s cellar, any progress—fragile and fleeting though it may be—is more than welcome. Gay's play is great evidence of this. 

But it’s how Gay’s extension reflects on the franchise itself that stands to pay the biggest, longest-lasting dividends. Long considered something of an NBA backwater, Sacramento has spent the better part of the last decade in a desperate attempt to recapture its mid-2000s glory days.

STEVE YEATER/Associated Press

Locking down Gay won’t be enough to make up for years of organizational rancor and roster mismanagement. What it does show, though, is that the Sacramento brass—led by envelope-pushing owner Vivek Ranadive—is capable of keeping its franchise cornerstones intact.

Here’s CBSSports.com’s Matt Moore on what the deal means, both for Gay and his up-and-coming team.

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The deal keeps flexibility for the Kings, who will still have tons of room in 2016 when the cap increases with the media deal, and gives Gay the ability to play his way into even bigger money under the new deal with an opt out in 2017, a year after the agreement goes into effect.

The Kings overpay a little bit considering Gay's career value and based on faith in what he's done for Sacramento, and also because you have to overpay for free agents in Sacramento's market. A little over $13 million for a versatile small forward who can defend up to twos and down to fours, gives you production, has become a leader for the team, and can score?

Everything's coming up Kings lately.

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What’s more, Gay has managed to put to rest concerns over his shooting touch—at least temporarily. According to Basketball-Reference.com, through his first 10 games, he is registering career highs in points (22.5), true-shooting percentage (57 percent), player efficiency (22.0) and win shares per 48 minutes (0.181).

Dig a bit deeper, though, and the production seems slightly more precarious. Long considered a scion of bad shot selection, Gay has only doubled down on his mid-range infatuation, with a whopping 24 percent of his shot attempts coming from 10-16 feet—over 40 percentage points higher than his previous high of 20 percent, set during the 2012-13 campaign, per Basketball-Reference.com.

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The good news: Gay has coupled his quick mid-range trigger finger with a new-found prowess for getting to the free-throw line, where he’s connected on an impressive 88 percent of his career-high 7.5 attempts per game.

It seems unlikely head coach Mike Malone will be able to completely break Gay of his bad basketball habits. Still, if this quote from Kings general manager Pete D’Alessandro can be believed, Gay’s growth as a basketball player is much more about opportunities than ingrained hardwood habits (via SB Nation’s James Herbert): 

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We look at him differently than maybe others do. I feel like a lot of times with certain players, it’s where they’re getting the ball, it’s where they’re scoring, it’s the position they’re put in. And I think we have a good idea, we’re talking as a staff a little bit, we have a good idea of what positions that we’d like to put him in.

"

Whether and to what extent these statistical outliers trend back toward the typical will undoubtedly have an outsized bearing on whether Sacramento’s scrappy play can continue apace.

At the same time, Gay’s play—impressive though it’s been—remains a secondary storyline in light of another, more impressive ascendance: the continued rise of DeMarcus Cousins.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Through his first 10 tilts, the mercurial center is logging top-10 numbers in points per game (22.4), rebounds (11.1) and player efficiency (27.1), the only center in the league to do so.

After years spent battling concerns over his maturity and temperament, Cousins has emerged not only as Sacramento’s statistical leader, but as its spiritual one as well—a fiery but focused force who, for all his occasional outbursts and blow-ups, cares beyond reproach.

Round out the roster with equal parts veteran voices (Darren Collison, Carl Landry) and youthful vigor (Ben McLemore, Nik Stauskas), you have the makings for a team that, however unpredictable, certainly can’t be accused of being boring.

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

And while the team’s tight salary-cap situation could make reeling additional talent a tough proposition, the Kings have enough in the way of assets—picks and players alike—to lend them some semblance of flexibility.

Stuck as they are in a historically hellish Western Conference, Sacramento’s climb to contention is one awash in challenges. Even if this season proves an encouraging step forward, question marks abound as to whether Gay and Cousins can be the kind of duo the Kings need—both in the here and now and as a magnet for future, tier-scaling talent.

All the same, locking down Gay proves the Kings are far from the floundering afterthought many believed.

Rudy Gay is far from a perfect player. The question is whether he can be perfect for these Kings—young and plucky and poised for a long-awaited renaissance—now and in the future.