College Football Rankings 2014: Updated Playoff Predictions for Week 12
This is the week that everyone associated with college football has been waiting for. The College Football Playoff rankings have provided a platform to discuss everything, but Week 12 is when the grainy picture comes into focus.
Of course, just because it appears things will be in order, this is college football. This selection committee already changed the way things go. It doesn't appear to have one set of criteria for ranking teams, which is good and bad.
It's good because no team can rest on its laurels after a win. It's bad because making up rules on the fly can result in ignoring the evidence that has been presented each week and what the results say about a team's performance.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Whatever rationale the committee has for doing what it does, here are predictions for the CFP rankings and a look at the current standings.
| Pos. | Team | Record |
| 1 | Mississippi State | 9-0 |
| 2 | Oregon | 9-1 |
| 3 | Florida State | 9-0 |
| 4 | TCU | 8-1 |
| 5 | Alabama | 8-1 |
| 6 | Arizona State | 8-1 |
| 7 | Baylor | 8-1 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 8-1 |
| 9 | Auburn | 7-2 |
| 10 | Mississippi | 8-2 |
| 11 | UCLA | 8-2 |
| 12 | Michigan State | 7-2 |
| 13 | Kansas State | 7-2 |
| 14 | Arizona | 7-2 |
| 15 | Georgia | 7-2 |
| 16 | Nebraska | 8-1 |
| 17 | LSU | 7-3 |
| 18 | Notre Dame | 7-2 |
| 19 | Clemson | 7-2 |
| 20 | Wisconsin | 7-2 |
| 21 | Duke | 8-1 |
| 22 | Georgia Tech | 8-2 |
| 23 | Utah | 6-3 |
| 24 | Texas A&M | 7-3 |
| 25 | Minnesota | 7-2 |
College Football Playoff Predictions
| Pos. | Team |
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Oregon |
| 3 | TCU |
| 4 | Mississippi State |
Note: Predictions are for what the final four will be at season's end.
As evidenced by the top four, there will be a lot of turnover in the standings by the time we get to the official announcement on December 7. The biggest change is Florida State falling out of the top four, though, admittedly, it's not likely to happen this week.
The Seminoles are playing a Miami team that hasn't looked good virtually all year, save for one performance against Duke. Don't be so quick to dismiss the Hurricanes in this spot. They are playing at home in prime time with an underrated defense that can give Jameis Winston fits.
According to Football Outsiders' metrics, Miami's defense ranks 15th nationally in defensive efficiency and fourth in big play prevention (IsoPPP).
Winston has had problems with his accuracy this season, especially early in games. In Florida State's comeback win against Louisville, the defending Heisman winner threw two of his three interceptions in consecutive drives during the second quarter.
Matt Fortuna of ESPN.com cited Miami's improved running game with Duke Johnson against a decent Florida State run defense as a key factor if an upset is going to happen:
"The junior has been on absolute tear lately, eclipsing the 100-yard mark in each of his last five games. Johnson's rushing average during this stretch? That would be 168.6 yards per game. Taken one step further, his rushing average over the last three games is 196 yards per game. Florida State has been OK stopping the run, ranking 35th nationally.
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The Seminoles have been flirting with disaster all season, so an upset seems likely to come before season's end. Whether it's this week against Miami, at the end of the year against Florida or in the ACC Championship Game is another story.
As for the four teams featured in these predictions, it's not a complex path for each of them to get in. Alabama is going to get a huge boost into the top four, presumably all the way up to No. 1, with a win against Mississippi State on Saturday.
A win for the Bulldogs in this spot would end a 57-year streak in which an SEC West school has failed to win at LSU and Alabama in the same year, per Andy Johnston of The Atlanta Journal Constitution.
Doing so will require the Bulldogs to overcome the country's No. 2 scoring defense. Dak Prescott has done great things this season, but the star quarterback has thrown five of his seven interceptions in his last three SEC games.
As Coy Wire of FoxSports.com wrote, Prescott has to play his best game of the season to secure a victory for Mississippi State because of a much-improved 'Bama defense:
"In 2013, Alabama's defense had only 22 sacks in 13 games and allowed 3.3 yards per rush. In 2014, through nine games, the defense already has racked up more sacks (23) than last season and is ranked fifth in the nation allowing only 2.8 yards per rush.
...
Prescott has been at his best this season when he’s hit back-shoulder fades and back-shoulder stop routes against press coverage, so look for him to attempt those types of passes often. But remember, Prescott has struggled lately to connect on those throws with the accuracy he showed earlier in the season.
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So assuming a loss here for the Bulldogs, they will fall in the rankings but still have time to make up for it with a game against Mississippi to end the season.
Oregon has the easiest remaining path to get in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have already moved up to the No. 2 spot, a position they will occupy the rest of this season with two easy wins against Colorado and Oregon State to end the regular season.
The Pac-12 title game is fascinating right now because Arizona State would be Oregon's opponent. The two teams aren't playing in the regular season. The Sun Devils jumped up to No. 6 by virtue of their win over Notre Dame, though that also highlighted flaws with the team.
Arizona State and Oregon aren't good defensive teams, ranking 50th and 51st overall in scoring defense, respectively, but the Ducks average nearly 10 more points per game and wouldn't have let a 34-3 lead against the Fighting Irish shrink to three points.
TCU will likely draw the biggest complaints from fans because of its loss against Baylor and what some could call a lucky win over West Virginia. It's clear the committee likes the Horned Frogs, who end the season against Kansas, Texas and Iowa State.
Gary Patterson's team doesn't have to worry about a conference title game, so three wins against three teams with a combined 10-18 record will push TCU to 11-1 with quality wins over West Virginia and Kansas State in consecutive weeks.
One hiccup throws the whole system out of whack, but Alabama, Oregon, TCU and Mississippi State are the four best bets to be in the College Football Playoff based on the current standings and the remaining schedules for each.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
