Lingering Questions for NBA's Biggest Contenders
At this stage of the NBA season, questions matter more than the few answers we've actually received from the league's various teams.
The standings are still stabilizing, with slow-starting contenders floundering and flame-shooting surprises yet to regress down to places they actually belong. Players are working their way into shape, and not all stars have even suited up for their respective teams.
Nonetheless, we still have a pretty firm grasp on the dozen teams that deserve to be called contenders at this early stage of the 2014-15 campaign. Some of them don't have the record to back up that claim, but there's enough talent on the roster that it's easy to suspect that won't be true for much longer.
For each of the 12, there's one question that stands out as the most concerning. Some will answer in positive fashion throughout the year, while others won't be able to provide a response that allows their championship quest to remain alive.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current through Friday, Nov. 14.
Are the Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors Ready for 'The Leap'?
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Winning doesn't come naturally in the NBA.
Bumps and bruises are necessary en route to a title. Teams have to take their lumps before they can earn the ultimate prize—a chance to hold up that coveted Larry O'Brien Trophy after winning the final game of the postseason. Generally, title-contending teams slowly progress through the stages of the process one year after another before making the leap.
Could the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards bypass those steps?
The Raptors, who have begun the 2014-15 season with a strong 7-2 record, haven't made it past the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs since Vince Carter led the team to a series win in 2001. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are new to the world of the postseason, and it's not as though other key players like Jonas Valanciunas have much experience under their belts. Lowry did win a playoff series with the Houston Rockets in 2009, but he did so as a role player who was on the court for less than 20 minutes per game.
As for the Wizards, they're in a bit better shape. Paul Pierce has been through the grind multiple times, and he's a seasoned champion. Nene and Marcin Gortat have plenty of experience as well, but the same can't be said about the two truly key players on the roster—John Wall and Bradley Beal.
In 2014, both young backcourt members made their first foray into the postseason. And while they took down the injured but experienced Chicago Bulls and played the Indiana Pacers tough, thanks in large part to Beal's heroics, it's not as though they were true contenders.
It's time for each of these teams to play wise beyond their years and deal with this question, one that will linger throughout the entire season. There's no escaping the inquiry of inexperience until you've overcome it and proved yourself.
What's Up with Derrick Rose?
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The Chicago Bulls have already played nine games and won seven of them, but superstar point guard Derrick Rose has only suited up five times. He's sprained both ankles and missed time, and now he's dealing with a pulled hamstring that will likely keep him out of action for at least one more contest.
It's a never-ending parade of injury woes, stretching all the way back to the time he first tore that ACL.
During his literal handful of appearances, Rose has been quite effective. He's averaged 18.0 points, 2.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists while earning a 21.1 player efficiency rating, per Basketball-Reference.com. But the continued rash of injuries has done more than give Chicago talking heads something to yell about; it's allowed doubt to creep into the equation for a team that's sitting pretty at 7-2.
Joakim Noah probably had it right with the impassioned speech he gave in Toronto, as James Herbert of CBS Sports relayed:
"I just, I don't want to see him down. I know sometimes it's frustrating, you got injuries, you got tweaks. Every time something happens to him, people act like it's the end of the world. And that's f---ing so lame to me. Relax. Like, OK, he's coming back from two crazy surgeries. Obviously we're being conservative with him, and when things aren't going right, he's got to listen to his body more than anybody. So everybody needs to chill the f--- out. I mean, I'm sorry for cursing, but I'm really passionate. I don't like to see him down. And he doesn't say that he's down, but I don't like it when, like, people portray him and judge him. ‘Cause it's not fair to him. It's not.
We're going to be just fine. We're going to be just fine. We just got to take it as — just, everybody needs to chill out. Chill out.
"
Questioning Rose's mental fortitude is silly, and it's hard to blame him for wanting to be healthy during the post-basketball portion of his life while preserving his body for the most important part of the season. That's what's getting lost by the wayside, as precious few seem to realize it's better for him to sit out and rest now than later.
Nonetheless, questions about Rose's health will be omnipresent during the 2014-15 season, as will concerns about the team's ceiling without him on the floor. Impressive as they may be in the early going, the Bulls aren't quite the same squad without their floor general suiting up.
Are the Miami Heat Durable?
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And so it begins.
"Tonight I'm not playing. It's as simple as that. It's just not smart for me to try and push it," Dwyane Wade said while preparing to sit out against the Atlanta Hawks Friday night after aggravating his left hamstring in an earlier loss to the Indiana Pacers, per the Miami Heat's official Twitter feed.
Wade has played some fantastic basketball during the early portion of the 2014-15 season, suiting up in all but one of the nine games for the 5-4 Heat. But it's already clear he's not going to play anything close to the full season, especially when the maintenance program inevitably kicks in.
This Miami team is quite strong. There's no doubt about that now, and it's already looking as though I'm going to have to eat some serious crow...if the Heat keep rolling along as the grueling season takes its toll.
Durability is still the biggest question mark for this team, just as it was entering the season.
Wade's year could turn sour at any point if his knees act up. Luol Deng could struggle to maintain his level of energy throughout the year and Chris Bosh's alpha-dog role might end up wearing him down as we enter the stretch run and the ensuing postseason festivities.
And that's saying nothing of the bench. With a thin group of contributors, many of whom are aged veterans or injury-prone contributors, there's no telling who Erik Spoelstra will have at his disposal on any given night.
What Is This Defense Thing?
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Can teams win with historically bad defenses?
We knew that preventing points was going to be a difficult endeavor for the Cleveland Cavaliers heading into the season, as Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love had never exactly been standouts on the less-glamorous end. Nor had they played meaningful minutes at the NBA level, and it's not as though there was a host of rim-protecting monsters on the roster to make up for their mistakes.
The same is true of the Dallas Mavericks, especially after replacing Vince Carter and Shawn Marion with Chandler Parsons. Even the addition of Tyson Chandler wasn't going to change the decided offensive orientation of this squad.
Through the first few weeks of the season, both squads have hemorrhaged points.
Dallas has actually improved during the early portion of the campaign and now sits at No. 17 on the defensive rating leaderboard, per Basketball-Reference.com. The Mavs are allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions, which still leaves plenty of room for improvement, but they haven't been entirely atrocious.
The same can't be said for Cleveland.
Allowing 112.8 points per 100 possessions, LeBron James and the Cavs have a defensive rating better than only the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers thus far.
Both teams are offensive powerhouses, but will they be able to win without fortifying their defenses?
How Much Does Age Matter for the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs?
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Age is only a number.
But it's an important number in the NBA, given the grind of an 82-game season and the necessity of winning four playoff series to emerge as the league champion. A healthy mix of veterans and young contributors is typically best, as being too old or too young can often be problematic.
Going into the 2014-15 season, I calculated the projected real age of each squad, weighting how much impact a player had on his team's age by how much time he was expected to spend on the court. The Memphis Grizzlies (29.58 years old) were the most veteran team in the Association, while the San Antonio Spurs (29.02) checked in as the fifth oldest.
Now that we actually have hard data on how much time players are spending on the floor, we can re-calculate. Memphis' real age has elevated to 30.35 years. For San Antonio, the number is up to 29.78.
These teams are both quite old, and that can make things difficult down the stretch. The Spurs overcame Father Time last season to win yet another championship, but they look significantly more sluggish now and are handing Kawhi Leonard more responsibility than ever before.
Memphis is a true contender this season, given its burgeoning levels of chemistry and the insanely effective defense. The same is true of San Antonio, as you can never count out a team with Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
But more so than before, age is a concern for both Western Conference powers.
Will the Bench Ever Bite the Houston Rockets?
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The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the NBA during the early portion of the season, taking advantage of a weak schedule and absolutely obliterating nearly everyone who crosses their path. James Harden is thriving with his free-throw-earning ways, Dwight Howard is playing like he's back in Orlando, Trevor Ariza has been a perfect fit and the team's three-point proclivities are dreamy to analytic minds.
Plus, as Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote, the bench and role players have been making an impact:
"Harden and Howard are the givens; what's been particularly impressive about Houston's 7-1 start is the way the team's less-heralded role players have fit so neatly into the picture. Playing without starters Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverley, the Rockets leaned on Donatas Motiejunas and rookie Kostas Papanikolaou to fill in, and both responded with solid all-around efforts.
...
Toss in Papanikolaou, undrafted rookie Tarik Black (who had 10 points against Minnesota) and veteran sniper Jason Terry, and you've got another trio of shrewd pickups who've all contributed this year. And credit the Rockets for trusting in the development of Beverley and Jones, both of whom were playing well before going down with injuries.
"
It's all true.
The Houston bench has been thriving, and general manager Daryl Morey looks like a genius for putting together this roster after his primary pursuit of Chris Bosh failed. But let's take a step back.
The Rockets are going to be relying on Motiejunas, Papanikolaou, Black and Terry throughout the season, as well as guys like Troy Daniels, Isaiah Canaan and Nick Johnson. That's a large group of unproven—or, in Terry's case, remarkably old—contributors.
Could it work? Sure.
But it's still cause for pause.
Could Turnovers Be the Golden State Warriors' Downfall?
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Turnover percentage is an advanced statistic that shows what percentage of a team's possessions see the squad cough up the ball to the opposition.
Over the last few years, it hasn't been entirely crucial to winning a championship, as the 2011-12 Miami Heat finished No. 24 in turnover percentage, per Basketball-Reference.com, and the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks came in at No. 21. But more often than not, teams that hang onto the ball tend to find more success, especially when play slows down in the postseason and each possession becomes all the more valuable.
So far, even a No. 24 finish would be a significant improvement for the Golden State Warriors.
The Dubs have lost a grip on the rock during 19 percent of their possessions through eight games, which is easily the worst mark among the 30 teams in the NBA. The winless Philadelphia 76ers are at No. 29 with a 17.8 turnover percentage.
It gets worse.
Golden State is actually on pace to have the single-worst turnover percentage in NBA history. Bar none. The 1976-77 Denver Nuggets are currently the record-holders with a turnover percentage of 18.8.
It gets worse still.
Among the 40 teams who have finished a season at or above 17 percent, less than half of them have emerged with a winning record, led by the 62-win Philadelphia 76ers in 1980-81. Not even a single one of the eligible squads managed to take home a trophy at the end of the playoffs.
Can the Portland Trail Blazers Overcome a Lack of Depth?
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The Portland Trail Blazers did their darnedest to shore up the bench after last season saw the team rely far too much on the production of the talented starting five. Through nine games, both new additions—Chris Kaman and Steve Blake—are playing significant minutes, but there are still only five second-string players topping 10 minutes per contest, and not all of them are productive.
| Steve Blake | 22.2 | 7.5 |
| Chris Kaman | 19.4 | 21.8 |
| C.J. McCollum | 12.8 | 11.3 |
| Allen Crabbe | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| Will Barton | 10.1 | 0.1 |
Outside of Kaman's surprisingly effective play, that's not a promising set of numbers.
In fact, HoopsStats.com shows that Portland's bench is playing more minutes than only eight teams throughout the league. That's an upgrade from last year, but how long will the starters survive without much support, especially given the fact that they were remarkably durable in 2013-14?
This isn't a mind-bogglingly young roster, and while betting on injuries would be falling prey to the gambler's fallacy, it would still be surprising to see Portland escape with yet another clean bill of health.
For the time being, the strength of the bench, or lack thereof, is still the primary concern in Rip City.
Can the Los Angeles Clippers Regain Their Swagger?
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The Los Angeles Clippers may only have gotten off to a 4-3 start, and their negative margin of victory doesn't look particularly kind, but it's also worth noting they've played one of the NBA's toughest opening schedules.
They'll eventually start to rebound and elevate up the Western Conference standings, justifying their continued status as contenders.
But what's happened to this team's swagger?
There's been no joie de vivre in the Staples Center, and the excitement that surrounded Lob City is all but washed up. Instead, players are going through the motions, and even then, not all of them are doing so. DeAndre Jordan, for example, has regressed significantly on the defensive end and needs to start making proper rotations that help him anchor a surprisingly ineffective point-preventing unit.
Needless to say, Steve Ballmer's passion on the sidelines hasn't carried over onto the court.
With the league's best point guard—though Stephen Curry might overtake Chris Paul in that debate before too long—and one of the premier power forwards, LAC is too talented to continue floundering away and producing unimpressive results. But until they regain their confidence and exuberant style of play, the Clippers may still do exactly that.
