College Football Playoff 2014: Week 12 Rankings and Predicted CFP Matchups

The committee in charge of filling out the College Football Playoff bracket made a couple of subtle statements with its Week 12 rankings.

Dropping Florida State one spot lower showed that being undefeated doesn't equal automatic safety and sliding TCU past Alabama was a positive sign for teams from outside the SEC.

Moreover, the lack of a formula to determine how certain scenarios would change the rankings has added some intrigue to the process. The committee is seemingly taking a fresh look at the entire picture on a weekly basis, which is good news for those teams trying to make a late charge.

Let's take a look at how the rankings currently stand ahead of a clash between Mississippi State and Alabama that's sure to shake things up one way or another.

The standings are followed by predictions for how the top four will look come playoff time.

College Football Playoff Rankings

Rank	Team	Record
1	Mississippi State	9-0
2	Oregon	9-1
3	Florida State	9-0
4	TCU	8-1
5	Alabama	8-1
6	Arizona State	8-1
7	Baylor	8-1
8	Ohio State	8-1
9	Auburn	7-2
10	Ole Miss	8-2
11	UCLA	8-2
12	Michigan State	7-2
13	Kansas State	7-2
14	Arizona	7-2
15	Georgia	7-2
16	Nebraska	8-1
17	LSU	7-3
18	Notre Dame	7-2
19	Clemson	7-2
20	Wisconsin	7-2
21	Duke	8-1
22	Georgia Tech	8-2
23	Utah	6-3
24	Texas A&M	7-3
25	Minnesota	7-2

Predictions for Playoff Matchups

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida State

Alabama was left out of the top four despite its overtime road win over LSU. The good news for the Crimson Tide is that if they take care of their own business the rest of the way, there's no way they won't be among the final four.

That's the message head coach Nick Saban has been preaching the entire time.

Michael Casagrande of AL.con provided the head coach's latest comments about the situation. While the theme remains the same, he was savvy enough to mention how tough the SEC is in the process:

"

We have to play really, really good teams in our league and we have a couple of really, really good teams that we have to play to finish the season, starting with the team that we play this week. The emphasis is, if you have success against the teams that you have to play, all those things are going to take care of themselves. The emphasis has to be on how we play, how we execute, preparing the right way for this particular game, this particular team, and give ourselves the best chance to be successful in this game.

"

The Tide are also in good shape because their two biggest remaining games are at home. They face Mississippi State this week and welcome Auburn to Tuscaloosa for the Iron Bowl. Then there would be the SEC title game at a neutral site against a team from the weaker (relatively speaking) East.

So if Alabama doesn't run the table and therefore secure a playoff berth, it wouldn't be able to blame anybody else. It just has to take care of business.

Florida State in an intriguing test case for future years.

The reigning national champion came into the season with a lot of hype. The Seminoles have also remained undefeated and have three very winnable games to close out the campaign. In years past, they would have likely been on cruise control into the title game.

However, dropping them below a one-loss squad from Oregon is an interesting move.

It would still be a major shock if they finish unbeaten and don't make the final four, but if all the other teams near the top are scoring huge wins and Florida State fails to impress against unranked teams, the committee would be in an interesting spot since it already dropped the Seminoles once.

What Florida State must avoid is slipping up the rest of the way.

If the ball had bounced a different way, it could have three or four losses already. It's managed to overcome the close calls, but the resume likely isn't strong enough to get the 'Noles in with a loss.

So they just have to win out and hope that's enough for the committee to keep them in the top four.

No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Mississippi State

Barring a major surprise, Oregon should finish the regular season at 11-1. If the Ducks lose to either Colorado or Oregon State at this stage, they probably won't be making the national semifinals regardless.

It's hard to imagine that happening, though.

The last hurdle would be the Pac-12 title game. The committee has seemingly given them a vote of confidence by moving them past Florida State. So, with the South race still wide open, they should probably root for chaos to produce the easiest matchup possible.

One other interesting note for Oregon comes from ESPN Stats & Info, which states that it's currently the likeliest team to capture the title:

All told, the Ducks are probably in the best position of any team due to their remaining schedule and current positioning.

On the flip side, Mississippi State is in a tricky position, which is weird for the team currently atop the rankings. The SEC Network passed along a query from radio host Paul Finebaum that doesn't have a clear answer yet:

If the Bulldogs lose a close contest on the road to Alabama but then win their final two games, they will be a very strong 11-1 team. Their argument would include wins over Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M with a single loss against what would likely be the No. 1 team at that point.

Say Alabama and Oregon take care of their respective tasks. That would leave two spots for Mississippi State, Florida State and TCU assuming they all do the same.

Somebody with a very strong case would be left out.

Given its group of marquee wins, Mississippi State should be safe at one loss if that defeat comes to Alabama. The committee is going to have a difficult decision on its hands, though.