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UFC 180: Fabricio Werdum vs. Mark Hunt Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

Nathan McCarterNov 13, 2014

UFC 180 will be the first major pay-per-view to hail from Mexico City, but the proposed heavyweight title bout between Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum will not go off as planned Saturday night.

Velasquez suffered a knee injury, and in steps Mark Hunt in an interim title fight.

In the co-main event, Jake Ellenberger and Kelvin Gastelum battle for a place among the welterweight elite.

The 11-fight card gets started on the subscription-based UFC Fight Pass before moving to Fox Sports 1 to finish off the preliminary bouts. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.

Let's have a look at the main card betting odds and break down the fights in an effort to give you better information before you hit the books this weekend. Information is power, and this weekend's event may require a bit more research than most.

Onward to the UFC 180 main card.

Edgar Garcia (-205) vs. Hector Urbina (+165)

1 of 5

Edgar Garcia (14-3) meets Hector Urbina (16-8) in the opening bout of the card.

Garcia is 0-2 in his UFC career but returns to the UFC roster after going on a four-fight win streak. Urbina is 2-2-1 in his last five and hasn't fought since a win last year in the North American Allied Fight Series. To say this is a curious addition to the PPV portion of the card is an understatement.

Both fighters have failed against competition at this level, so it is likely a good thing they meet each other.

This is a favorable matchup for Garcia, as the odds indicate, although it isn't a runaway. Don't expect a Fight of the Night performance from this bout.

Prediction: Garcia by decision

The Play: Keep it small on the favorite.

Augusto Montano (-235) vs. Chris Heatherly (+185)

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The second lackluster addition to the main card is a bit more understandable. Chris Heatherly (8-2) dropped his UFC debut earlier this year but returns to take on Mexican prospect Augusto Montano (13-1).

This seems to be a showcase fight for Montano, and that is why you should play him.

Montano's lone career loss to Sam Alvey is a quality one. Montano has been out of action since last August. The time away from the cage will either be a mistake, as cage rust sets in, or a great way to further his progression.

Heatherly is a decent opening test for Montano, but one he should pass.

Prediction: Montano by TKO

The Play: Montano is the safe choice.

Ricardo Lamas (+150) vs. Dennis Bermudez (-185)

3 of 5

No. 4-ranked featherweight contender Ricardo Lamas (14-3) enters as the underdog to No. 7-ranked Dennis Bermudez (14-3).

Lamas began the year with a title shot, but once that failed he returned to defeat Hacran Dias. Bermudez is riding a seven-fight win streak into the event with his latest win coming over Clay Guida.

Bermudez has been on a roll as of late, and that is likely why the oddsmakers like him here. It is a curious line, as Lamas is not the best matchup for Bermudez. This fight will likely be dictated by whoever can win the early grappling exchanges.

Despite the oddsmakers' opinions, I like Lamas here.

He has proved to be more successful against a higher level of competition. I expect more of the same in a tough fight for both men.

Prediction: Lamas by decision

The Play: I like the play on the underdog.

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Jake Ellenberger (+195) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-250)

4 of 5

No. 7-ranked welterweight contender Jake Ellenberger (29-8) will try to get back in the W column after back-to-back losses. He meets rising star No. 11-ranked Kelvin Gastelum (10-0) in the co-main event.

Gastelum has looked fantastic since winning The Ultimate Fighter, and this matchup can propel him up the ladder into serious contention in the division. But Ellenberger is without question his toughest task to date.

The veteran enters as the unlikely underdog.

Gastelum looks more technical in his approach to both striking and grappling. Ellenberger can get wild in his strikes and force his grappling, but his power is a difference-maker. Gastelum has not been in the cage with the upper echelon, of which Ellenberger is a member.

Ellenberger told Damon Martin of Fox Sports he will expose Gastelum at UFC 180.

"

Everybody at this level is tough, but tough really doesn't mean anything.  It really comes down to executing and creating a rhythm. So I wouldn't say anything about the level of competition (he's faced), but am I going to expose him?  Absolutely.  He's going to make a mistake.

"

I like Ellenberger in a small upset.

Prediction: Ellenberger by decision

The Play: Take a chance on Ellenberger.

Interim Heavyweight Championship: Fabricio Werdum (-450) vs. Mark Hunt (+325)

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No. 1-ranked heavyweight contender Fabricio Werdum (18-5-1) meets No. 4-ranked Mark Hunt (10-8-1) in the main event of UFC 180.

This is the most compelling fight the UFC has seen in some time thanks to Hunt's ascension as of late. Unfortunately for bettors, the odds don't warrant a play.

Hunt is a fantastic striker, but he has never excelled on the ground. That is where Werdum is best.

Werdum is also a growing striker in his own right, and his size (6'4") will play an important role in this bout. He enters with height and reach advantages against Hunt (5'10"). This will allow him to stay out of range of the big blow Hunt can deliver.

This fight will also take place at elevation in Mexico City. That is something Werdum has taken into consideration leading into the fight.

"Everybody knows Mark Hunt is a tough opponent," Werdum told the Los Angeles Times' Lance Pugmire. "Good boxer, but we have high altitude here and I’ve been here the two months and Hunt has just got here."

Once this fight hits the floor, it's over. Werdum will outclass Hunt quickly and efficiently. The fight most likely won't move past the first five minutes.

Prediction: Werdum via submission

The Play: The odds don't warrant a play on either fighter.

Bonus Play

Take a shot on Leslie Smith (+200) against Jessica Eye (-200). It will likely be a stand-up affair, but Smith will hold the edge on the ground. Her relentless nature will make for a fun fight and keep her in the action all the way to the scorecards. The odds are worth taking a flier on her.

All odds provided by OddsShark.com.

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