Vikings vs. Bears: Breaking Down Minnesota's Game Plan

The Minnesota Vikings return from the bye week by hitting the road for a divisional showdown with the Chicago Bears.

Much different circumstances surround this encounter in the Windy City than ones in the recent past. Minnesota could almost chalk up this yearly matchup as a loss, and some fans may have at the beginning of this season. The Vikings have only won once in Chicago since 2000, after all, confirmed by footballdb.com.

But this Bears team differs greatly, coming off back-to-back blowouts in which the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots rung them up for a combined 106 points. The 3-6 Bears are staring down the barrel of a lost season with a defense that resembles a train wreck and an offense wobbling on the tracks.

For right now, it’s rainbows and lollipops in Minnesota. The Vikings have won consecutive games, are benefiting from improved quarterback play the last couple weeks and are well-rested after a week off.

The entire plan rotates around kicking a Bears team that could hardly be any farther down. These are the keys to a Vikings victory.

Start fast on offense

The next step in the offense’s growth is finding ways to fly out of the gate a little quicker, especially in the passing game. Teddy Bridgewater becomes a different quarterback when a time constraint expedites the offense, quickening his rhythm late in either half. That high level of play hasn't been there early in games, however.

Starting quicker might mean upping the tempo a little bit right away. At 27 seconds per play, via Football Outsiders, the Vikings rank in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive pace. Neutralizing for game situation, the rank falls to No. 19. Bridgewater has the mental capacity to handle the faster pace and may find his rhythm earlier by using it.

Quicker starts doesn’t just refer to time in the game, either. The rookie QB has stunk on 1st-and-10.

	Comp. %	YPA	TD	INT	Rating
1st-and-10	53.5%	5.6	0	3	52.3
Other	64.3%	7.3	3	2	87.6

Remedies for this situation are not obvious and neither are the causes of it. Minnesota may consider emphasizing the run on first down without becoming predictable.

The entire plan for the passing game needs to facilitate rhythm for Bridgewater. Some burden falls on Norv Turner to manufacture some quicker throws for the rookie early in the game and on first down. Once he gets a better feel for the coverage, the playbook opens up. Some of it falls on Bridgewater himself. The ball should not always have to be rolling for him to play well.

Luckily for Bridgewater and the Vikings, Chicago has been an absolute pushover in the first half of the team’s last two games, as NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling highlights:

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Bears allowed 80 combined points in 1st half of consecutive games, most in NFL since at least 1940, per @nflnetwork research.

— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) November 10, 2014"

The Bears looked like a defeated team in Green Bay on Sunday. If the Vikings start quickly, Chicago may just roll over.

Isolate and attack the safeties

The softest spots of an already cushy Bears defense are the safeties. Chicago starts Chris Conte and Ryan Mundy back deep, neither of whom have put on dazzling displays in 2014. The other safety Chicago may go to is rookie Brock Vereen, a fourth-round pick.

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady exploited the Bears safeties in the last two weeks by pressing the ball down the field, testing their resolve in coverage over the top. The safeties wilted. Compiled from Pro-Football-Reference data, the Bears gave up eight receptions on nine deep passing attempts for 236 yards and three touchdowns over the course of the last two weeks. That’s staggering.

Over the course of the entire season, throws into Conte or Mundy’s coverage have been completed 30 out of 40 times for 450 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions, compiled from Pro Football Focus premium statistics (subscription required). That's more ammo for the Vikings to go long.

While deep passing in terms of go routes is not Bridgewater’s strength, the Vikings can have success throwing at these safeties.

When the Packers flooded the Bears secondary with deep route-runners, coverage busts led to wide-open receivers and huge plays. Turner is no stranger to four verticals, and Bridgewater can attack Chicago’s safeties over the top, just like he did against Buffalo on a similar play.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Patience with the downfield passing will reap rewards for the Vikings, and the leaky Bears secondary is one Bridgewater can have success on throwing over the top.

Feature the tight ends

Chicago has been torn apart in a variety of ways through the air. Tight ends have been especially effective against Bear linebackers and safeties.

The Bears rank No. 30 in the league in defense-adjusted value over average when their opponents have targeted tight ends, per Football Outsiders. In simpler statistics, Chicago is allowing 77.1 passing yards per game to tight ends, the highest in the league.

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Kyle Rudolph was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, per the Vikings injury report. Having not practiced fully to this point, his availability remains an uncertainty for Sunday.

Regardless, the Vikings have had success throwing to Chase Ford and Rhett Ellison in recent weeks. Bridgewater is a successful thrower to the middle of the field and should be able to take advantage of the poor job Chicago does restricting tight ends. Ford has become a viable target for the Vikings in crucial situations, and his production should remain high this week.

McKinnon, McKinnon, McKinnon

Rookie back Jerick McKinnon is still the Vikings’ best bet for sustained success in the ground game, despite the recent red-zone exploits of Matt Asiata. McKinnon has the athleticism and vision to maximize yardage on a down-by-down basis. He has earned the workload.

McKinnon has been especially effective with two different concepts in the running game. Minnesota would be wise to go back to the well with both. The first is an inside zone.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

These plays look like read-option gives and sometimes could be, but the Vikings have pillaged defenses consistently by letting McKinnon locate holes and make one cut to follow his blockers in the zone-blocking scheme.

McKinnon has also had success running to the perimeter, using his speed to press the corner quickly.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Fullback Jerome Felton is a highly effective lead blocker, so getting him involved as this toss play did will produce results for the Vikings on the ground too.

As long as Minnesota sticks with McKinnon, big plays will start to happen more frequently. The jitterbug-type runner has much more big-play potential than he’s shown. The Vikings must keep rolling the dice with McKinnon to be rewarded with more explosive plays, both on the ground and in the passing game. The rookie’s first NFL touchdown is near.

Create disruption with four

On the surface, Jay Cutler’s faults as a quarterback may lead one to think that blitzing him would be productive, but teams have actually had more success dropping numbers into coverage and making Cutler pick them apart.

	Comp. %	YPA	TD	INT	Rating
vs. Blitz	67.9%	8.2	6	3	101.8
vs. No Blitz	65.9%	6.8	12	7	89.7

Despite the ingenuity of Mike Zimmer’s blitzes, the defense can play well without relying on them. The four-man rush of Everson Griffen, Brian Robison, Sharrif Floyd and Linval Joseph has been productive all year and can be against the Chicago offensive line.

Getting that disruption from the interior will be important to disrupting Cutler’s rhythm, which seems to have a cascade effect on the way he plays as games wear on. Cutler has a lightning-quick release and can make throws from any number of positions, so rushers won’t always get home for sacks. Affecting his process is objective No. 1.

With the threat of pressure, Cutler’s mechanics and footwork will completely fall apart, and his decision-making will fly right out the window. This is where the Vikings defense will have a chance to change the game.

Make opportunistic plays in coverage

With interceptions in each of the last two games, Captain Munnerlyn has been the secondary’s game-changer in creating turnovers. Jay Cutler is an equal-opportunity risk-taker, though, so many others will be called on to take advantage.

NFL writer Dan Pompei gives a telling statistic related to Cutler’s propensity for interceptions:

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6. Since Cutler became a starter in 2007, he has 182 giveaways, second most in the NFL.

— Dan Pompei (@danpompei) November 10, 2014"

The idea is not necessarily to fool Cutler with coverage disguises or intricate looks, either. In order to turn him over, defenders must stick to receivers in man coverage and shrink passing windows. After that happens, turning and locating the ball will give the Vikings a chance to pick Cutler off, because he is more than willing to take shots into thick coverage.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Cutler banks on the size advantage his receivers have with the likes of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett running routes for him. That leads him to take risky shots down the field.

As in the screenshot above, safeties making decisive breaks on the ball can make him pay with interceptions, as Carolina did on this play.

Continue to challenge receivers

Stay with what’s working. The recent success of Minnesota’s pass defense is closely related to the aggression cornerbacks have taken with receivers, challenging them early in routes and trusting their own athleticism.

Neither Marshall nor Jeffery are absolute blazers down the field. The likes of Munnerlyn, Xavier Rhodes and Josh Robinson can surely hang with them as far as speed and short-area quickness goes. Marshall also didn’t practice Wednesday, according to Pro Football Talk, so challenging the hobbled receiver to beat tight man coverage makes sense.

There is another reason Minnesota can afford to stay aggressive despite the quality of Chicago’s pass-catchers. Cutler and the Bears have not made defenses pay for doing so all year, as Pompei points out:

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8. Big plays were scarce for Bears. Only 2 teams, Jets & Raiders, have fewer plays of 20 plus yards than Bears this yr. Makes no sense.

— Dan Pompei (@danpompei) November 10, 2014"

Minnesota must respect what the Bears are capable of through the air, but that doesn’t mean defensive backs sitting on their heels. Aggression will pay off.

Find Forte and then find him again

Matt Forte is the best player in Chicago’s offense and is public enemy No. 1 this week.

Versatility makes Forte such a potent weapon for the Bears. Despite being a running back, he leads the league in yards after the catch, edging out many top-notch receivers. Forte is No. 5 in total receptions, which is absurd for a running back. When Cutler is at his best, Forte is getting consistent receptions underneath and turning them into big gains. That’s how Chicago can move the ball in a hurry.

Anthony Barr might just be the kryptonite to Forte’s Superman. Mike Zimmer is willing to give Barr great responsibilities in coverage knowing his linebacker has the range to make plays all over the field, including chasing down a back like Forte.

That’s what he did to blow up a swing pass against Detroit.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Marc Trestman and the Bears offense will get creative in the ways they find Forte through the air. As the Vikings vary coverage, duties for Forte will get passed around, even within single plays. Defenders must communicate to keep eyes on him at all times.

In run defense, open-field tackling will be tested. Forte will rip off multiple gains for 10 or more yards. Those won’t break Minnesota’s back, though. Gains that turn into 20 or 30 just might, so linebackers and safeties must be decisive in run fits to get bodies on Forte as soon as possible.

More of the same is needed from the defensive line. Individual penetration from any of the front four will derail run plays by slowing Forte before he ever starts. The defensive line must be quick off the ball and quick through gaps to force the Bears into longer down-and-distance situations.

With effective execution in these areas of the game, the Vikings can grab their first divisional win under Zimmer and climb back to a .500 record, keeping realistic playoff hopes alive for one more week.

Statistics via ESPN.com unless noted otherwise.