10 Biggest Questions Facing Top 25 Teams Heading into Week 12
The most anticipated weekend of college football came and went last Saturday, but don't think for a second that things are about to slow down.
With one-loss Oregon jumping undefeated Florida State in the latest College Football Playoff poll, the selection committee has shown it's not going to follow the same old formula. In other words, every game is a chance to impress, even if a team has one or two losses.
From Mississippi State's showdown with Alabama to a pair of critical Big Ten battles, there's a lot happening in Week 12. Which storylines are the ones to watch? The answers are in the following slides.
The only criteria here is that teams mentioned have to be in the latest CFP Top 25.
10. Will Notre Dame Solve Its Turnover Issues Against Northwestern?
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To be clear, Northwestern shouldn't come close to beating Notre Dame. The Irish are a 17.5-point favorite at home, and morale for the Wildcats is likely low after a crushing loss to Michigan.
Still, turnovers have been the death of Notre Dame, and at no point was that more apparent than the 55-31 loss to Arizona State. The Irish turned the ball over five times. Quarterback Everett Golson threw four interceptions—though not all of them were his fault—and lost a fumble.
Yes, Golson needs to do a better job of holding on to the ball and making good decisions—he's an excellent passer otherwise—but the whole offense has to improve. Receivers have to do a better job of catching the ball, and the offensive line has to block more effectively.
With apologies to Northwestern, this seems like the week to work on those problems. Louisville and USC, Notre Dame's final two games, rank among the top 25 teams in the country in turnover margin.
9. Does LSU Have an Alabama Hangover, Give Arkansas Its First SEC Win?
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Get this stat: The last time LSU lost the game immediately after playing Alabama was 1999, when the Tigers lost to Houston 20-7.
What does that mean for Arkansas? History would suggest the Razorbacks drew the short end of the scheduling straw. However, Arkansas is a two-point favorite over LSU, despite not having a single SEC win this season (or last season).
The Razorbacks have been close—oh so close, and so many times—to notching their first SEC win. However, this is a team that just can't finish.
Both offenses are similar in that they have a stable of bruising running backs that can gash a defense for five or six yards a carry every time. The difference is that Arkansas has the edge at quarterback with Brandon Allen.
A change at quarterback may come for LSU. Anthony Jennings has been average, at his absolute best, meaning freshman Brandon Harris may get a shot.
"I think there's a potential of getting him in the game significantly," said head coach Les Miles, per Glenn Guilbeau of The Shreveport Times. "We're going to play it situationally."
It seems like Saturday would be as good a time as any for the Razorbacks to break a couple of streaks.
8. Will Auburn Clean Up Its Act Against Georgia?
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Auburn has been a sloppy team this year, averaging just under seven penalties a game for 68 yards. In a stunning 41-38 loss to Texas A&M, the Tigers were right on schedule with eight penalties for 65 yards. Additionally, Auburn had three turnovers, including a miscommunication on a late-game snap that gave A&M the ball and the win.
To avoid losing two games in a row, Auburn has to clean up its game. The Tigers have an offense capable of pushing Georgia around. Auburn's offense is about a 2-1 rush-to-pass ratio, which should be great news for the Tigers after Florida put up 418 yards on the ground against the Bulldogs a couple of weeks ago.
The Bulldogs have arguably the best player on the field at any time, running back Todd Gurley, returning from suspension, but Auburn is far more complete on offense. If it gets into a shootout, the Tigers can't afford to shoot themselves in the foot again.
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7. Can Alabama Turn the Tide in the SEC West?
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(Yes, that's an obvious and terrible play on words. Apologies in advance.)
While Mississippi State is the undefeated team sitting atop the playoff rankings, Alabama has emerged as an 8.5-point favorite for Saturday's game. If the Tide win, they'll be in the driver's seat in the SEC West with just weeks to go in the season. Additionally, Alabama will end the regular season at home against Auburn in another nationally relevant game.
An important factor may be whether running back T.J. Yeldon is ready to go. Yeldon, the team's leading rusher, sustained an ankle injury during last week's win over LSU.
"He's practicing and, you know, doing well," head coach Nick Saban said on Wednesday's SEC teleconference. Take that for what it's worth. If Yeldon is limited or otherwise out, it's the Derrick Henry show against a Mississippi State defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the SEC.
6. Can Florida State's Defense Subdue Miami's Big-Play Ability?
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One of the more interesting lines heading into Saturday is Florida State as a mere two-point favorite on the road at Miami. Though the Seminoles still have to play a possibly improved Florida team at year's end, this is basically viewed as the last major regular-season test for Florida State.
The Hurricanes have one of the more explosive offenses in the country, ranking 12th in the nation in plays over 20 yards. Though wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has just 19 receptions, he leads the nation with 30.1 yards per reception. Then, of course, there's running back Duke Johnson, a threat to score just about every time he touches the ball.
Florida State's defense isn't nearly as stingy as it was a year ago and is mediocre at stopping big plays. Given how the Seminoles have needed their fair share of comebacks, it's easy to wonder if there's a game where it finally catches up to them. The Vegas line would indicate oddsmakers think it could be this Saturday.
5. Can Clemson Quarterback Deshaun Watson Get Back Up to Speed?
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Todd Gurley isn't the only key player making his return this week. Per The Associated Press (via The Charlotte Observer), head coach Dabo Swinney said Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson has been cleared to play against Georgia Tech. Watson has missed the past three games with a broken bone in his throwing hand.
Clemson's offense looks like a much better unit when Watson is in the lineup. In the two starts prior to his injury versus Louisville, Watson put up 702 passing yards and eight touchdowns, along with two rushing scores. For context, senior Cole Stoudt has 1,425 passing yards and five total touchdowns on the year.
Georgia Tech ranks among the worst teams in the ACC in pass defense, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt. Conversely, Clemson is excellent at stopping the run and has one of the most athletic defensive lines in college football. As long as Clemson stays disciplined, that's not good for the Yellow Jackets' triple option.
The matchup on paper would seem to go Clemson's way, but the Tigers are just a 3.5-point favorite. If Watson has any rust coming back from injury, he needs to shake it off quickly.
4. Can Ohio State Avoid a Letdown Against Minnesota?
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Now that most of the college football world has jumped squarely on Ohio State's bandwagon, will the Buckeyes have a monumental letdown? Oddsmakers still have Ohio State as a 12-point favorite, but an early kickoff (noon ET) on the road after a big win against Michigan State has that magic upset formula.
The key is going to be whether Minnesota has the defense to slow Ohio State's offense, which has been a force since the early-season loss to Virginia Tech.
The Gophers have prided themselves on an ever-improving defense since head coach Jerry Kill arrived, and they give up just 21.3 points per game. However, Ohio State has the Big Ten's best scoring offense and has averaged 51 points over the past seven games.
Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott has had four 100-yard efforts in the past six games, and quarterback J.T. Barrett has done a tremendous job of distributing the ball. Basically, Ohio State forces defenses to account for a lot of weapons, and only Penn State has done so successfully as of late.
3. What Will Nebraska Running Back Ameer Abdullah's Status Be vs. Wisconsin?
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Here's what folks outside of Nebraska's practice facility know: Star running back Ameer Abdullah practiced Tuesday with a brace on his left knee, per Mitch Sherman of ESPN.com, and "looked pretty good" according to offensive coordinator Tim Beck.
Abdullah sustained a sprained MCL in his left knee two weeks ago in a win over Purdue. He was able to nurse that injury during the Huskers' bye last week, but an upcoming game at Wisconsin has major Big Ten West implications.
How much Abdullah plays—or how he looks—could play a huge role in whether Nebraska is able to come up with the win. Without Abdullah, Nebraska was held to its lowest total yards in a game, 297, against the Boilermakers.
Nebraska will be going up against one of the other premier running backs in college football, Melvin Gordon. This game may come down to which one has the better day.
2. Is Georgia Running Back Todd Gurley a Difference-Maker in His Return?
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It's been a long time—far too long—since Georgia running back Todd Gurley has played, thanks to a memorabilia/autograph "scandal" that cost him four games.
Gurley makes his return against Auburn, a team that was excellent against the run versus Kansas State (30 attempts, 40 yards) and bad against Arkansas and Mississippi State. Can Gurley be the difference-maker right away for the Bulldogs?
To quote Tigers defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson, via The Montgomery Advertiser's James Crepea, "The only guy that stopped him was the autograph guy."
Georgia has run the ball fine without Gurley, and it's the Bulldogs defense that may cause more concern than anything. But if Georgia's in a position to close out Auburn, Gurley is the guy who needs to get the ball. With fresh legs, there's no reason why Gurley shouldn't have a big game.
1. Will This Be Dak Prescott's Heisman Game?
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Sure, Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott is a Heisman candidate. He's ranked No. 2 in ESPN's latest Heisman watch. Still, it feels like this is Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota's trophy to lose.
Unless Prescott has the game of his career against Alabama on Saturday, that is. Prescott has the chance to gain more ground in the Heisman discussion than he has to lose against the Tide.
Prescott will be on the road against a defense that is second in the country in points allowed (13.9), fifth in yards per rush (2.82) and eighth in passing yards per attempt (5.7). Numbers aside, this will be one of the best, most athletic defensive front sevens Prescott will face all year, perhaps with the exception of Ole Miss.
Prescott himself averages about 334 all-purpose yards a game.
Mississippi State has generally done a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage and running a balanced power offense led by Prescott and running back Josh Robinson. The team will needs its best offensive performance to date. If that happens, Prescott can inch closer to being the Heisman favorite.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.
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