Ultimate Chaos Scenarios for Every Top 25 College Football Team
The 2014 season has reinforced that anything can and will happen in major college football.
As we head into the final four weeks of the regular season, only three FBS teams remain unblemished: Mississippi State, Florida State and Marshall. And of those three, only Mississippi State and Florida State have a realistic shot at making the inaugural College Football Playoff.
With four Saturdays of games remaining, you can bet that more crazy, jaw-dropping things will happen, which is what this feature is all about. These are not predictions about what will occur over the final portion of the regular season.
Rather, they’re examinations of what could happen with chaos introduced into the mix. What will happen when things get weird, across the board, for the best result to happen for each College Football Playoff Top 25 team? Let’s find out.
25. Minnesota
1 of 25
The Gophers have enjoyed an excellent 2014: Saturday’s 51-7 drubbing of rival Iowa not only brought rivalry trophy Floyd of Rosedale to the Twin Cities for the next year, it pushed them into the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings.
At 7-2 (4-1 in Big Ten play), Minnesota is out of the running for the College Football Playoff but has total control of its road to a league championship, since the Gophers still have Nebraska and Wisconsin (the teams they’re tied with atop the Big Ten West) left on their schedule.
What would the ultimate chaos look like? Well, let’s just imagine that Jerry Kill’s team surprises Ohio State at TCF Bank Stadium on Saturday, but then loses at Nebraska the following week. However, Wisconsin has already beaten the Cornhuskers, which sets up a crucial season finale in Madison on Nov. 29. Minnesota takes down the Badgers to leave the Big Ten West deadlocked in a three-way tie at 6-2.
Per Big Ten tiebreakers, the first tiebreaker is the record of the three tied teams among each other. That’s deadlocked here. The second is record within the division. Nebraska would win that tiebreaker, thanks to its loss to Michigan State against the other teams’ losses to Illinois and Northwestern, respectively. But it would certainly be chaotic.
24. Texas A&M
2 of 25
At 7-3 (3-3 in SEC play), Texas A&M is already out of contention for the College Football Playoff and SEC West championship, by virtue of its loss to unbeaten division leader Mississippi State. The best the Aggies can do is a tie for second in the division, which would surely give them a better postseason destination. First off, they must defeat Missouri and LSU in their remaining games.
Alabama must lose to Mississippi State and Auburn. Auburn must lose to Georgia but beat Alabama. Ole Miss must beat Arkansas and lose to Mississippi State, which would then theoretically leave the Bulldogs as 8-0 division champions. It isn’t a perfect ending for the Aggies, but it’s definitely messy.
23. Utah
3 of 25
Following a pair of 5-7 seasons, the Utes have enjoyed a bounce-back season this fall. However, with Saturday’s 51-27 loss to Oregon, Utah is 6-3, 3-3 in the Pac-12 South and out of College Football Playoff contention. The Utes would need a lot to happen in the final three weeks for a shot at the Pac-12 South championship.
First of all, they must beat Arizona, Stanford and Colorado for a 6-3 league record. The Wildcats must then beat Washington and Arizona State to get their own 6-3 record. Southern Cal must split its remaining league games with UCLA and Cal, and the Bruins must do the same with USC and Stanford. Oh, and Arizona State must lose two of its last three against Arizona, Oregon State and Washington State (let’s say Arizona and Oregon State).
That would create a five-way tie for the Pac-12 South title. Per the Pac-12 website, the tiebreakers are as follows:
- Head-to-head record.
- Record in games within the division.
- Record against the next-highest placed team within the division.
- Record in common conference games.
- Highest College Football Playoff ranking.
In that scenario, the Utes, with only a loss to Arizona State, would win the Pac-12 South and advance to the league title game. That would indeed be chaotic.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
22. Georgia Tech
4 of 25
This season has been an impressive rebound for Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech. Entering Saturday’s visit from No. 19 Clemson, the Yellow Jackets are 8-2 (5-2 in ACC play). They’re still in contention for the ACC Coastal Division title as well as the ACC’s bid in the Orange Bowl (which goes to the ACC champion or the highest-ranked ACC team should an ACC team make the College Football Playoff).
Let’s imagine that Tech takes out Clemson and beats rival Georgia in the regular-season finale. Would the Jackets need a loss from Duke (which has already beaten them this season) to taste oranges? Not necessarily. Imagine if the Blue Devils lose the ACC title game to Florida State (which makes the College Football Playoff, opening the Orange Bowl). Thanks to its win over Georgia, Tech slips past Duke to take the Orange Bowl bid.
21. Duke
5 of 25
At 8-1 overall (4-1 in ACC play), Duke is in position for its second consecutive ACC Coastal Division championship. The Blue Devils finish the season at home against Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Wake Forest. Amazingly, they can still afford a loss somewhere along the way and still win the division. They own a win over second-place Georgia Tech. Even if Tech beats Clemson to finish in a two-way tie at 6-2, the Blue Devils own the edge thanks to a head-to-head win.
That’d qualify Duke for an ACC title game rematch against Florida State. You want chaos? Let’s imagine Anthony Boone carving up the Seminoles’ defense to end FSU’s long ACC winning streak, finding its way into the Orange Bowl. That’d be a shocking but fascinating development that would send shock waves across the national landscape.
20. Wisconsin
6 of 25
Wisconsin enters the final three weeks of the 2014 regular season in excellent position to challenge for a Big Ten championship. The Badgers are 7-2 overall (4-1 in Big Ten play), with their only league loss coming to a bad Northwestern team.
They control their destiny, as they end the season facing off with both Minnesota and Nebraska (whom they share the division lead with). The three-way duel has the potential to get very interesting. Let’s just imagine that Minnesota loses to Ohio State, but beats Nebraska to enter the final week of the regular season 5-2 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin beats Nebraska but loses to Iowa, meaning it is also 5-2.
And the Cornhuskers beat the Hawkeyes on Black Friday, meaning they end the regular season 5-3 in league play. That sets up a division championship clash no one ever could have imagined entering the season: Minnesota vs. Wisconsin in a classic border rivalry battle. The Badgers edge the Gophers and finish a wild chase for the Big Ten West.
19. Clemson
7 of 25
At 7-2 (6-1 in ACC play), Clemson is in excellent position for its second consecutive Orange Bowl bid. If Florida State makes the College Football Playoff, the ACC’s highest-ranked remaining team will take the Seminoles’ place. Right now, that’s Clemson.
But it isn’t a done deal. Far from it. Clemson visits Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the Tigers have not defeated the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta since 2003. Let’s imagine that the Yellow Jackets get the job done again, dropping the Tigers to 7-3 (we’ll assume they beat Georgia State and take care of South Carolina at home to end the regular season 9-3).
Now, let’s imagine that Tech loses to rival Georgia in the regular-season finale. The Jackets qualify for the ACC championship when Duke loses two of its final three games to a combination of North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. But Florida State waxes Tech in the ACC title game in a noncompetitive matchup. That puts the Tigers back in the mix, and they ease past the Jackets in the final regular-season rankings to claim the Orange Bowl berth vacated by Florida State’s playoff bid.
18. Notre Dame
8 of 25
Following this week’s loss at Arizona State, Notre Dame is 7-2 and likely eliminated from the College Football Playoff picture. But the Fighting Irish can still make something special of this season and get a little revenge along the way.
If they can finish the regular season with wins over Northwestern, Louisville and Southern California, they’d be 10-2 and be under serious consideration for one of the New Year’s Day bowls affiliated with the College Football Playoff, like the Orange Bowl.
Let’s say the Irish get picked for the Orange and are then matched up with none other than one-loss Florida State, smarting after it is snubbed for a playoff bid. This time around, Everett Golson and the Irish finish the job, scoring a late touchdown to put the memories of their controversial last-second loss in Tallahassee behind them for good.
17. LSU
9 of 25
At 7-3 (3-3 in SEC play), the Tigers have already been eliminated from College Football Playoff contention as well as contention for the SEC West championship, due to their loss to Mississippi State. But they can still have some fun and finish in a tie for second in the division. First, they must beat Texas A&M and Arkansas to close the regular season.
Alabama must lose to Mississippi State and Auburn. Auburn must lose to Georgia but beat Alabama. Ole Miss must beat Arkansas and lose to Mississippi State, which would then push the Bulldogs to 8-0 as division champions. It isn’t a perfect ending for Les Miles and Co., but given the way this season went at times it’s good enough.
16. Nebraska
10 of 25
Bo Pelini is in his seventh full season at Nebraska, and he has never lost fewer than four games in a season. That streak looks poised to end this season, as the Cornhuskers are 8-1 and sit in a tie for the Big Ten West Division lead at 4-1.
However, the division is far from wrapped up, considering that the Huskers still must play co-leaders Minnesota and Wisconsin to end the season. The easy way out would be for Nebraska to sweep the Gophers, Badgers and Hawkeyes to win the division, but where’s the fun in that?
Let’s imagine that the Huskers fall to Minnesota but beat Iowa and Wisconsin to finish 6-2. Minnesota falls to Ohio State and beats Nebraska, so the Gophers are 5-2 entering the regular-season finale at Wisconsin. The Badgers, meanwhile, beat Iowa, so they’re also 5-2 entering the game.
Nebraska, having played a day earlier on Black Friday, can only watch and root for Wisconsin to take out the Gophers. The Badgers win the game and while they tie with Nebraska, the Cornhuskers win the head-to-head tiebreaker and take the division crown and a berth in the Big Ten title game.
15. Georgia
11 of 25
Georgia entered this season with national championship aspirations, but thanks to a 38-35 loss to South Carolina and a 38-20 defeat to Florida, the Bulldogs need help just to win the SEC East. Specifically, from anyone playing Missouri.
At 5-2 in SEC East play, Georgia needs Missouri (4-1) to lose at least one league game along the way: Mizzou ends the season at Texas A&M, at Tennessee and home vs. Arkansas.
We’ll assume that Georgia gets revenge on rival Auburn to end its SEC slate. The Tigers win at Texas A&M and Tennessee, leaving UGA sweating into the final week of the regular season.
But what’s that? Bret Bielema and the Razorbacks give Missouri a true Black Friday, ending a two-plus-year league winless streak at Faurot Field. Mark Richt’s team takes the gift, qualifies for the SEC Championship and stuns the league’s other Bulldogs, Mississippi State, to claim an SEC title.
14. Arizona
12 of 25
Behind freshman quarterback Anu Solomon (who has 26 touchdowns against five interceptions), the Wildcats have been one of the surprise teams in college football this season. They enter the homestretch of Pac-12 play 7-2 overall and 4-2 in league play. They’re in contention for a Pac-12 South title, but they still need help. Here’s a chaotic way that the Wildcats could claim the South title and earn another date with Oregon for the Pac-12 title.
First, Arizona must beat Washington and Utah entering the regular-season finale against the Sun Devils. Next, Southern Cal must beat UCLA and Cal to finish the regular season 7-2. Arizona State must beat Oregon State and Washington State to enter the Arizona game 7-1 in league play.
Then, the Wildcats upset the Sun Devils, leaving a three-way tie at 7-2. Both Arizona and USC are 2-1 in the tiebreaker, but USC has two losses in the Pac-12 South (the next tiebreaker), leaving the Wildcats free and clear to the league title game.
13. Kansas State
13 of 25
Kansas State has had an excellent season, but following last week’s 41-20 loss to TCU, the Wildcats are out of the College Football Playoff picture. That said, they’re still firmly in contention for a Big 12 championship at 7-2 (5-1 in league play).
The Wildcats need TCU to lose to have a shot at the Big 12 title. They win at West Virginia and at Kansas, setting up a huge season finale at Baylor on Dec. 6. But they still need help with the Horned Frogs. While Kansas State takes care of Baylor, Iowa State (previously winless in Big 12 play) stuns TCU, paving the road for K-State’s Big 12 championship.
12. Michigan State
14 of 25
Thanks to last week’s 49-37 loss to Ohio State, the Spartans (who began the season with dreams of the College Football Playoff) now need help just to win the Big Ten East at 7-2 (4-1 in league play). That’s a tough task, given that MSU is the only Big Ten team to defeat the Buckeyes in Urban Meyer’s two-plus seasons as OSU head coach.
First off, the Spartans defeat Maryland, Rutgers and Penn State. The Buckeyes must lose twice. Let’s say that Minnesota upsets OSU this week. OSU rebounds by beating Indiana heading into its annual rivalry game with Michigan. With Brady Hoke fighting for his job, the Wolverines put together the game of their lives to stun Ohio State in Ohio Stadium and save Hoke’s bacon, giving their cross-state rival the division championship in the process.
Emboldened, Michigan State wins a rematch against Nebraska in the Big Ten title game to make something special out of 2014.
11. UCLA
15 of 25
UCLA began this season with hopes of making the College Football Playoff, but at 8-2 (5-2 in the division), the Bruins now need help just to win the Pac-12 South. Here’s how it happens in crazy fashion.
First off, UCLA must defeat crosstown rival Southern Cal and Stanford to finish the regular season 7-2. Then, Arizona must defeat Washington and Utah entering the regular-season finale against Arizona State, which should enter the game 7-1 after beating Oregon State and Washington State.
Arizona upsets the Sun Devils to create a three-way tie for the Pac-12 South. Thanks to wins over the Wildcats and Sun Devils, UCLA wins the three-way tiebreaker. Emboldened, the Bruins stun Oregon in the Pac-12 title game and finish the regular season on a major high with 11 victories.
10. Ole Miss
16 of 25
The past month hasn’t been easy for Ole Miss, with narrow losses to LSU and Auburn leaving the Rebels, despite their 8-2 record, outside the College Football Playoff picture and on the fringes of the SEC West title picture.
Plenty of things must happen for the Rebs to claim the West title. First off, Ole Miss must defeat last-place Arkansas. Alabama must beat Mississippi State. Georgia must defeat Auburn. Auburn must defeat Alabama. And, of course, the Rebels defeat Mississippi State to win the Egg Bowl, take the West and set up an SEC title game showdown with Georgia. It isn’t easy, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
9. Auburn
17 of 25
Saturday’s disappointing 41-38 loss to Texas A&M left the Tigers all but out of the College Football Playoff picture and on the outside of the SEC West championship chase. It remains possible, though. First off, the rival Crimson Tide must defeat Mississippi State. That same day, the Tigers must defeat Georgia for a second consecutive season.
A week later, Ole Miss must down the Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl, setting up Auburn for a prime-time Iron Bowl showdown at Alabama. With a win over Alabama, the Tigers claim another SEC West championship and rout Missouri for their second consecutive SEC title.
8. Ohio State
18 of 25
A year ago, the Buckeyes were poised to make the final BCS National Championship Game with a win over Michigan State in the Big Ten title game. That night, the Spartans stunned Ohio State, ending the Buckeyes’ 24-game win streak one game short of a national title shot.
Following September’s 35-21 loss to Virginia Tech, dreams of a College Football Playoff bid looked unlikely. But Ohio State has just kept winning and winning and winning, and last week’s 49-37 win at Michigan State revived those chances.
Still, Ohio State needs help, and a good bit of it, to make the four-team playoff field. First off, the Buckeyes finish the regular season by beating Minnesota, Indiana and Michigan, and rip Big Ten West foe Nebraska in the Big Ten title game to finish 12-1.
Then, the help comes in. In the regular-season finale, Kansas State beats Baylor. Arizona State falls to Oregon in the Pac-12 title game to become another two-loss team. Alabama falls to Mississippi State, and then TCU is stunned by Iowa State in the season finale, truly opening up the Buckeyes’ road to the playoff. They slip in as the No. 4 playoff seed. Who’d have imagined that in September?
7. Baylor
19 of 25
Even with last week’s 48-14 demolition of previously ranked Oklahoma, the Bears find themselves needing help to make the College Football Playoff, thanks to a 41-27 loss at West Virginia and a weak nonconference schedule of SMU, Buffalo and Northwestern State. Per Chuck Carlton of The Dallas Morning News, the debate between Baylor and fellow Big 12 foe TCU (who Baylor beat 61-58) won't be over soon.
Carlton said College Football Playoff committee chair Jeff Long noted that the committee felt TCU had a better "body of work," better strength of schedule and more Top 25 wins than Baylor. "When you put all those factors together, we still think at this time TCU has a better resume and was voted that way ahead of Baylor,” Long said.
But Baylor can still make the playoffs, without question.
Baylor has three games left (all at home) against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State, and let’s say it wins all three. But more needs to happen. Arizona State falls to rival Arizona in the regular-season finale. Alabama defeats Mississippi State to muddle the SEC West picture, but falls to Auburn at home in the Iron Bowl. And an improving Texas team takes out TCU on Thanksgiving night, opening the door for Baylor to make the playoff with a Big 12 championship in hand.
6. Arizona State
20 of 25
Following back-to-back wins over then-Top 20 foes in Utah and Notre Dame, Arizona State finds itself firmly in position to challenge for a College Football Playoff bid. But it won’t be easy: The Sun Devils need help from others.
Let’s assume that they close out the regular season by beating Oregon State, Washington State and Arizona. That sets up a Pac-12 title showdown with Oregon. A year ago, Stanford whipped the Sun Devils in this game. But this time around, ASU has answers for the Ducks, knocking them from the ranks of the once-defeated and moving a step closer to the playoffs.
That same day, Alabama is stunned by Georgia in the SEC title game, meaning only one SEC team will qualify for the College Football Playoff. Arizona State gleefully slides in as the fourth team.
5. Alabama
21 of 25
Entering Saturday’s showdown against No. 1 Mississippi State, Alabama controls its own destiny for a College Football Playoff bid. Beat the Bulldogs and Auburn, and the Tide will take a huge step toward the playoffs.
But what happens if that doesn’t occur the way everyone expects? Say Mississippi State beats Alabama at home, leaving the Tide scrambling for a playoff spot.
Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl after Ole Miss takes down the Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl, and even though the Bulldogs win the SEC West, Alabama stays alive. When Georgia stuns MSU in the SEC title game, Alabama slips into the College Football Playoff.
4. TCU
22 of 25
TCU has been one of college football’s biggest surprises with a high-powered offense that has fueled an 8-1 record entering the season’s final stretch. The Horned Frogs have an easy closing slate with Kansas, Texas and Iowa State, but need help to clinch the Big 12 title due to their 61-58 loss to Baylor.
Both teams enter the Dec. 6 regular-season finale 10-1. TCU easily takes care of Iowa State, but Baylor is surprised at home by Kansas State, ending its hopes at the College Football Playoff and Big 12 championship. TCU makes a most unlikely charge to a playoff bid.
3. Florida State
23 of 25
For a team with a 9-0 record and 25-game winning streak, Florida State doesn’t get a ton of respect. The Seminoles were passed in this week’s College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings by a one-loss Oregon team.
FoxSports.com's Stewart Mandel said the playoff selection committee sent a message by elevating the Ducks over the Seminoles. They really can’t afford a loss and still make the four-team field, as they’d likely be passed by several one-loss teams.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if FSU made the playoffs, but it would be a surprise if the ‘Noles were the No. 1 seed. How does it happen? FSU ends the season by beating Miami, Boston College and Florida and rips Duke in the ACC title game. Meanwhile, Mississippi State loses to Alabama. Oregon is not impressive in beating Arizona State in the Pac-12 title game, and FSU moves to the No. 1 playoff seed when the bracket is announced.
2. Oregon
24 of 25
With one loss already, Oregon can’t afford another if it hopes to make the College Football Playoff. However, the Ducks can get a chance at revenge. The Ducks will easily beat Colorado and Oregon State and claim the Pac-12 North title.
That will give them a berth in the Pac-12 title game, and there’s one team they want: Arizona. The Wildcats are responsible for Oregon’s only loss of the season, a 31-24 defeat Oct. 2 in Eugene. Arizona claims the Pac-12 South championship by beating Arizona State and gets a rematch with the Ducks. Oregon takes advantage, rolling the Wildcats and rolling into the College Football Playoff.
1. Mississippi State
25 of 25
Mississippi State has been perhaps the best story in college football. At 9-0, the Bulldogs have gone from SEC West also-ran to the nation’s No. 1 team. But can they afford a slip-up and still make the College Football Playoff? Yes.
This week, the Bulldogs slip up in the fiery cauldron that is Bryant-Denny Stadium. But they rebound by beating Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, and Auburn does its part by stunning the Tide in the Iron Bowl. Given new life, Mississippi State rips Georgia in the SEC title game and makes the College Football Playoff.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
