College Football Playoff Standings: Week 12 Rankings and Bowl Game Projections
Week 11 provided some clarity as far as the playoff picture is concerned. The overall bowl picture, though? Well, it's still a work in progress.
But bowl projections are back, and we're here to give the postseason our best guess.
Here's how the two major Top 25 polls looked after Week 11. The following slides contain bowl projections heading into Week 12. Click on the links below to view the latest College Football Playoff, Associated Press and USA Today Top 25 polls.
New Orleans Bowl
1 of 39
Dec. 20, New Orleans: Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Fresno State vs. Texas State
This one has offense written all over it, especially on a fast track in New Orleans. If Fresno State running back Marteze Waller gets loose, it could be a long day for the Bobcats.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Projected Winner: Fresno State
New Mexico Bowl
2 of 39
Dec. 20, Albuquerque, New Mexico: Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: San Diego State vs. Cal
Cal's defense is still the worst in the Pac-12, and one of the worst in the country, giving up just under 40 points per game. But if the game gets into a shootout, give me Bears quarterback Jared Goff and one of the finest groups of receivers anywhere in the country, even if the Aztecs allow just 6.8 yards per passing attempt.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Cal
Las Vegas Bowl
3 of 39
Dec. 20, Las Vegas: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Stanford vs. Colorado State
Colorado State has a case as the best group-of-five team in college football. Unless the Rams win the Mountain West, however, it could be tough to get into one of the six major bowls.
Garrett Grayson is one of the best quarterbacks that no one talks about, and Alabama transfer Dee Hart has been a solid addition in the run game. However, Stanford's defense is one of the stingiest in college football. Unless the Cardinal play Oregon.
Colorado State is good, but not Oregon good.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Stanford
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
4 of 39
Dec. 20, Boise, Idaho: MAC vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Buffalo vs. Nevada
Buffalo has one of the worst scoring defenses in the country, giving up 32.6 points per game. That seems like a bad combination with Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo. The senior accounts for 279 all-purpose yards a game.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Nevada
Camellia Bowl
5 of 39
Dec. 20, Montgomery, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
Dino Babers' first year as Bowling Green's head coach could have gone poorly because of the season-ending hip injury to quarterback Matt Johnson. However, the Falcons are still 6-3 and have an offense that averages 33 points per game. But Arkansas State allows about 10 points less per game. The Red Wolves have enough defense to get it done.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Arkansas State
Miami Beach Bowl
6 of 39
Dec. 22, Miami: BYU vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: BYU vs. Cincinnati
BYU hasn't been the same since losing quarterback Taysom Hill for the year to a broken leg. Still, Hill's absence doesn't excuse the fact that the Cougars have had a hard time stopping anyone not named Middle Tennessee.
The bad news here is that Cincinnati has an explosive offense...but it also doesn't play great defense. Expect this game to have a lot of points and momentum swings, with the Bearcats getting the edge in the end.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Cincinnati
Boca Raton Bowl
7 of 39
Dec. 23, Boca Raton, Florida: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: Western Kentucky vs. Ohio
How's this for scoring stats: Western Kentucky averages 40.4 points per game but gives up 41.6. Think Ohio, which averages just under 21 points per game, can light up the scoreboard?
Maybe a little, but not enough to win.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Western Kentucky
Poinsettia Bowl
8 of 39
Dec. 23, San Diego: Navy vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Navy vs. Utah State
Obviously, Navy can rack up yards on the ground, but Utah State's defense is disciplined and one of the best in the country against the run, allowing just 2.68 yards per carry. The Aggies have still been solid on offense—about 27 points per game—despite losing quarterback Chuckie Keeton again to a season-ending injury.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Utah State
Bahamas Bowl
9 of 39
Dec. 24, Nassau, Bahamas: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: Marshall (C-USA) vs. Toledo (MAC)
Undefeated Marshall isn't going to get any love from the playoff selection committee. Basically, as Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com tweeted, the committee isn't solely looking at the number of wins and losses.
As a result, the Herd aren't in a major bowl. That's a shame given everything they've accomplished, but the committee is apparently putting all its eggs in the strength-of-schedule basket.
There's a lot of offense in this game, but Rakeem Cato and Co. have the defense to make enough stops to win.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Marshall
Hawai'i Bowl
10 of 39
Dec. 24, Honolulu: Conference USA vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: UTEP vs. Air Force
As you'd expect, Air Force ranks ninth in the country in rushing yards per game at 282.44. UTEP, on the other hand, allows more than five yards per carry. This one feels like a one-sided affair.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Air Force
Heart of Dallas Bowl
11 of 39
Dec. 26, Dallas: Big Ten vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: Rutgers vs. Rice
Rice has won six games in a row after getting off to an 0-3 start, and the schedule is manageable enough down the road to get at least one more win. The Owls don't have a particularly potent offense, but Rutgers is giving up just under 30 points per game.
Still, this game comes down to whether the Scarlet Knights can make good decisions on offense and not turn the ball over. Even if Rutgers does turn it over, can Rice capitalize?
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Rutgers
Quick Lane Bowl
12 of 39
Dec. 26, Detroit: Big Ten vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Maryland vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
The season-ending injury to receiver Stefon Diggs, a lacerated kidney, is a big blow to a Maryland team that has seemingly constantly struggled to stay healthy. Western Michigan has been a great turnaround story from its 1-11 season in 2013 and has the best scoring offense in the MAC.
In an upset, the Broncos just edge the Terps in a shootout.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Western Michigan
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl
13 of 39
Dec. 26, St. Petersburg, Florida: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Central Florida vs. Middle Tennessee (C-USA)
Before a stunning loss to UConn, UCF was on a five-game winning streak. Peeking ahead at the remaining schedule, the Knights should have plenty more wins before the season ends.
Don't bank on UCF quarterback Justin Holman throwing four picks again like he did against the Huskies, who seem to bring out the absolute worst in everyone. UCF rides Holman past Middle Tennessee with relative ease.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: UCF
Military Bowl
14 of 39
Dec. 27, Annapolis, Maryland: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: East Carolina vs. Pitt
East Carolina allows just 3.11 yards per carry in rush defense, but can the Pirates slow down human 18-wheeler James Conner? That seems like a challenge. The Pirates offense has been good, averaging just under 36 points per game, but it was plagued by turnovers in a stunning loss to Temple. However, quarterback Shane Carden and Co. score enough big plays to make a difference.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: East Carolina
Sun Bowl
15 of 39
Dec. 27, El Paso, Texas: ACC vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Duke vs. Utah
Thought Utah had the No. 2 scoring defense in the Pac-12 heading into Week 11, it was no match for Oregon and lost 51-27. Duke's offense is good, but it's not as potent, nor is it a pass-heavy offense.
The Blue Devils got exposed in run defense against Miami and Pitt, so if Utes running back Devontae Booker can have a big day, that spells trouble.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Utah
Independence Bowl
16 of 39
Dec. 27, Shreveport, Louisiana: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: North Carolina State vs. Louisiana Tech
Not only is Louisiana Tech bowl eligible, but the Bulldogs could win the Conference USA West Division. However, Wolfpack quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a stud and would be the best player on the field. That gives North Carolina State just enough to avoid an upset in a closer-than-expected game.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: North Carolina State
Pinstripe Bowl
17 of 39
Dec. 27, Bronx, New York: ACC vs. Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Boston College vs. Penn State
If you like defense—or, rather, hate offense—then this might be the game for you. And seeing as it will take place in New York in late December, your sick fantasy of a 9-6 final score in cruddy conditions is very much a possibility.
Protection has been shaky for Penn State up front all season, but Temple isn't particularly good at getting in the backfield. That gives quarterback Christian Hackenberg enough time to make a few plays.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Penn State
Holiday Bowl
18 of 39
Dec. 27, San Diego: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Minnesota vs. USC
Just how good Minnesota is will be tested down the final stretch of the season, but you have to like the combination of David Cobb in the running game and tight end Maxx Williams as a receiving threat.
However, the Gophers pride themselves on defense and USC has a ton of weapons, from running back Buck Allen to the receiver combination of Juju Smith and Nelson Agholor. In the end, that's too much to handle.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: USC
Liberty Bowl
19 of 39
Dec. 29, Memphis, Tennessee: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: West Virginia vs. South Carolina
South Carolina has been a disappointment, but it should be licking its chops after West Virginia was picked apart by Texas' ground game in last week's loss to the Longhorns. If Gamecocks running back Mike Davis gets going, watch out.
West Virginia should be able to move the ball against South Carolina's pass defense. The question is whether the Mountaineers can hold on to the ball.
Matchup Type: Sloppy
Predicted Winner: South Carolina
Russell Athletic Bowl
20 of 39
Dec. 29, Orlando, Florida: Big 12 vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
This has been a disappointing season of sorts for Oklahoma and Notre Dame. The Russell Athletic Bowl, while definitely worth a follow on Twitter, might not be the place either hoped it would end up before the season started.
The Sooners are so-so in turnover margin, while Notre Dame has just been giving away the football. Beware, though, if Irish quarterback Everett Golson hits his stride. Notre Dame can put up points.
However, if Oklahoma receiver Sterling Shepard is 100 percent healthy, he's the difference-maker.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Texas Bowl
21 of 39
Dec. 29, Houston: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Suddenly, there's new life for Texas A&M after pulling the upset on the road against Auburn. It looks like freshman quarterback Kyle Allen has settled in a bit.
Believe it or not, Oklahoma State's offense has been dull, failing to score more than 14 points in each of the last three games. A&M's defense could remedy that a little bit, but if the Aggies can get any offense going, the Pokes may not have enough to catch up.
As odd as that sounds.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Texas A&M
Music City Bowl
22 of 39
Dec. 30, Nashville, Tennessee: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Florida vs. Georgia Tech
Since Florida hasn't been able to successfully—or, at least, consistently—transition to a potent passing attack, the Gators have finally relied on the ground game. Put that against Georgia Tech's triple-option and there might be 700 rushing yards combined.
It takes more discipline than anything to stop Georgia Tech's offense. Given the time and preparation, the Gators can get it done on defense.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Florida
Belk Bowl
23 of 39
Dec. 30, Charlotte, North Carolina: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Louisville (ACC) vs. Missouri (SEC)
The Cardinals are transitioning from the Charlie Strong defense-first mentality to Bobby Petrino's more aggressive offensive attack. It's come with some mixed results. Receiver DeVante Parker is back at wide receiver, but quarterback Will Gardner is out for the year with an ACL injury.
The defense still has Strong's stamp on it and forces Tigers quarterback Maty Mauk into more crucial mistakes.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Louisville
San Francisco Bowl
24 of 39
Dec. 30, Santa Clara, California: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Iowa vs. Arizona
Though Rich Rodriguez's offenses have always been known for the run, the Wildcats rank No. 13 in the country in passing yards. Iowa has generally been good at slowing down the pass. The Hawkeyes offense has looked potent at times this season, but ultimately they may not have enough to keep up if Arizona stops/slows the run and feature back Mark Weisman.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Arizona
Peach Bowl
25 of 39
Dec. 31, Atlanta: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: Auburn vs. Boise State
There hasn't been any love for Group of Five teams in the playoff polls, but Boise State, even at two losses, could crack the rankings by year's end. That said, we already saw what happened when the Broncos took on an upper-echelon SEC team this season (a 35-13 loss to Boise State).
Now put Boise State up against a team that can score at a moment's notice. Yikes. These are not your Chris Petersen/Kellen Moore Broncos.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Auburn
Fiesta Bowl
26 of 39
Dec. 31, Glendale, Arizona: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: Arizona State vs. Michigan State
Michigan State's playoff hopes are likely done, but if the Spartans win out, they'll have a good chance at one of the other major bowl spots.
Sparty can score with just about anyone, and while Arizona State's defense has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, the QB/RB/WR combo of Connor Cook, Jeremy Langford and Tony Lippett is capable of doing damage.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Michigan State
Orange Bowl
27 of 39
Dec. 31, Miami: ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Predicted Matchup: Clemson vs. Mississippi State
Clemson can be selected to the Orange Bowl even if it doesn't win its own division. The matchup between the Tigers' stout defensive line vs. Mississippi State's power running game with quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Josh Robinson would be the area to watch.
Clemson's offense operates much better when freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson is in the lineup. The Tigers will be able to get yards against Mississippi State, but I have more reservations about their ability to get points.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Mississippi State
Outback Bowl
28 of 39
Jan. 1, Tampa, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
The key matchup, as is the case with any team playing Wisconsin, is how Ole Miss' defense handles Badgers running back Melvin Gordon. Through eight games, Gordon is averaging 7.58 yards per carry. The Rebels defense has been banged up lately, losing linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche for the year to an ankle injury.
Wisconsin doesn't do much else well besides run the ball, so provided Ole Miss can stop Gordon—or at least keep him in check—the game should be close. Then it's up to Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace to play mistake-free football.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
Cotton Bowl
29 of 39
Jan. 1, Arlington, Texas: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: TCU vs. Ohio State
Ohio State might be the team no one in college football wants to play right now, but I still get the feeling that the selection committee will punish the Buckeyes for that early-season loss to Virginia Tech.
TCU has playmakers for days on offense. Given that the Horned Frogs have a competent pair of co-coordinators, it's been downright impossible to fully stop them. For the record, I don't think Ohio State would. However, the Buckeyes do have defensive end Joey Bosa, and he's good enough to stop TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin from breaking loose.
Both teams are playing lights out at the moment, but give me the team with perhaps the best D-line in college football against an offense not designed to run through anyone.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Citrus Bowl
30 of 39
Jan. 1, Orlando, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Nebraska vs. Georgia
If you like great running backs, you'll probably want to tune in to the Citrus Bowl for what will certainly be the last game for Georgia's Todd Gurley. He'll square off opposite Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah, who has been almost a one-man show for the Huskers.
Considering the Bulldogs gave up 418 rushing yards to Florida not too long ago, it'd be interesting to what Abdullah, a real home run threat, could do.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Nebraska
Rose Bowl
31 of 39
Jan. 1, Pasadena, California: CFP No. 2 vs. CFP No. 3
Predicted Matchup: Alabama vs. Oregon
A pair of late-season home games help Alabama get through SEC and into the playoff. Besides Arizona State, there's no one in the Pac-12 who can likely challenge Oregon.
The Tide have an excellent run defense, which would put a lot of pressure on Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Ducks can run up the middle with Royce Freeman, so this would be the ultimate test for the Ducks' oft-injured O-line. Oregon, for all the speed that it has, isn't going to be able to go sideline to sideline against Alabama, either.
In the end, Alabama quarterback Blake Sims and wide receiver Amari Cooper connect enough to be the difference.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Sugar Bowl
32 of 39
Jan. 1, New Orleans: CFP No. 1 vs. CFP No. 4
Predicted Matchup: Florida State vs. Baylor
Interestingly, Florida State was jumped by one-loss Oregon in the recent playoff rankings. Not that head coach Jimbo Fisher cares. "I just kept watching film on Miami," Fisher said, via Ralph Russo of The Associated Press.
The interesting team in all of this is Baylor, which is the subject of a heated debate about whether it would potentially get a playoff spot over TCU if the two teams finished with 8-1 conference records.
Let's say the Bears get the nod for the head-to-head matchup, which seems reasonable. This could be a game for fans of offense and points. Both are capable of moving the ball easily and have athletic defenses that have still been vulnerable at times.
The lack of a steady pass rush is concerning for Florida State, since getting to Bears quarterback Bryce Petty seems to be the formula for slowing down Baylor's offense. That said, the Seminoles are good enough on the back end to challenge man-to-man and Baylor has some key injuries along the O-line.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Florida State
Armed Forces Bowl
33 of 39
Jan. 2, Fort Worth, Texas: American Athletic vs. Army
Predicted Matchup: Houston vs. UAB
The Cougars have the weapons to be a potent offense, but they haven't been able to put up the numbers to match. However, Houston has the eighth-best scoring defense in the country, allowing 16 points per game. Part of that may be the competition, but the Cougars defense has nevertheless picked off 16 passes this year.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Houston
TaxSlayer Bowl
34 of 39
Jan. 2, Jacksonville, Florida: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: LSU (SEC) vs. Miami (ACC)
Miami's mix of running back Duke Johnson and quarterback Brad Kaaya provides a potent, balanced attack capable of scoring points on LSU's defense. As the season has progressed, Kaaya, a freshman, has improved dramatically, and now the offense seems to be clicking at a high level.
The Tigers don't have the same level of quarterback play, but their bruising running is enough to wear down any defense over the course of the game. If it's close, take Les Miles' team every time.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: LSU
Alamo Bowl
35 of 39
Jan. 2, San Antonio: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Kansas State vs. UCLA
Quietly, UCLA has climbed back up the rankings after back-to-back losses in October. The Bruins offense has been balanced, but this team is still one of the most penalized ones in the country.
K-State is usually good at forcing other teams to play at the pace the Wildcats want to set, and their defense has been solid for the most part. If wide receiver Tyler Lockett gets loose for a few big plays in the passing game, it could be a long day for the Bruins.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Kansas State
Cactus Bowl
36 of 39
Jan. 2, Tempe, Arizona: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Central Michigan vs. Washington
Washington hasn't been real consistent on offense, and quarterback play has been average. If there's any stat that shows that, it's linebacker Shaq Thompson being the team's leading rusher with 456 yards.
Central Michigan won't stop Thompson on offense and will have a hard time against the Huskies' formidable defensive front.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Washington
Birmingham Bowl
37 of 39
Jan. 3, Birmingham, Alabama: SEC vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: Tennessee vs. Memphis
Memphis is bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. That's a credit to head coach Justin Fuente, who has turned around a once-abysmal program.
Normally, Memphis getting into Tennessee's backfield would be a good sign; the Vols have had protection issues up front all season. However, with new quarterback Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee is better equipped to handle pressure. There's just enough talent at the skill positions to be too much for Memphis to handle for 60 minutes.
Matchup Type: Close, but never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Tennessee
GoDaddy Bowl
38 of 39
Jan. 4, Mobile, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Both offenses run the ball well, so this likely comes down to whichever team can stop it. However, both defenses give up more than four yards per rush. With dual-threat quarterbacks Terrance Broadway (ULL) and Drew Hare (NIU), expect a lot of yards and points.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette
College Football Playoff Championship
39 of 39
Jan. 12, Arlington, Texas: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Predicted Matchup: Alabama vs. Florida State
Though Alabama is not in the Top Four of the latest playoff standings, the feeling is that the Tide are a win away from controlling their playoff destiny. It also seems like Alabama is a team that could get rolling, so to speak, at the right time.
Both offenses are capable of big plays, but the Tide are more balanced on offense. The ability to use running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry late in a game pays dividends, while the defensive front seven gets enough pressure on Jameis Winston.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
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