Why Cleveland Cavaliers Have No Reason to Sweat Kevin Love's Free Agency
Among the many problems plaguing the freshly super Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Love's impending free agency is one they should neither sweat nor fear.
It is, for now, a non-issue.
And no matter how much the Cavaliers stumble, no matter how far they fall, that's not going to change.
Free Agency: A Formality
Worrying about Love's free agency, regardless of current state, is pointless this early in the season. It's not even December. The Cavaliers have yet to play 15 games. What happens in July, more than half a year from now, is beyond control and—most importantly—prediction.
But the Cavaliers are the exception to time and traditional thought. The absence of legitimate grace periods is the price they pay for employing LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Love at once. Playing .500 basketball with three top-15 stars on the roster paves the way for alarm and speculation—both of which NBA.com's Sam Smith provided in a recent column:
"It’s not going to get as much discussion during the season, but one of the biggest issues for the Cavs is that both LeBron James and Kevin Love own opt outs after this season. LeBron James basically cannot afford to go anywhere after his return to Cleveland. But watch out for Love. Indications are he will seriously consider the opt out and has his eyes on a return to Los Angeles, where he attended college and where the Lakers long have had him on their free agent wish list.
"
Same danger, different day.
Love has been linked to the Los Angeles Lakers for more than a year. Last season's rumor mill reached Defcon "Love to the Lakers is totally happening" as his relationship with the Minnesota Timberwolves continued to unravel. Though the Lakers lacked the assets to trade for him, his foray into 2015 free agency lined up perfectly with their financial wiggle room. That Love was born in Santa Monica (he grew up in Oregon) and attended UCLA only added to the hype.
Joining James and the Cavaliers killed it.
And it should still be dead.
All public indications are Love won't be going anywhere. Upon his arrival, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Cavaliers acquired him knowing he would opt out of his contract and sign a five-year max deal next summer. Nothing the All-Star power forward has said or done since then suggests he's already giving serious thought to leaving Cleveland.
"I'm in," he said at his introductory presser, per the Associated Press' Tom Withers, via NBA.com. "I'm committed to this team, committed long term to the end goal and that's to win championships."
Long-term commitments tend to stretch further than one year. Of course, waxing incorruptible allegiance is also standard stuff for new arrivals, who tend to live in the moment.
Some things—plenty of things, actually—can change over the course of an entire 82-game campaign. If the Cavaliers struggle for all of 2014-15 and fail to establish themselves as the superpower (mostly) everyone has them pegged as, Love might not hold himself captive by the optimistic vows he made almost one year prior.
That, however, doesn't mean he'll bolt the first chance he gets. His supposed plans to opt out don't make him a flight risk. That's been the plan all along. As NBC Sports' Dan Feldman observes, it's also the smartest play:
"Of course Love will opt out.
His 2015-16 salary is slated to be $16,744,219. But because he’d be eligible for a higher max contract due to his years of experience and the NBA salary cap is rising, Love projects to have a max salary of $18,602,898 next season.
So, even if Love believes staying in Cleveland one more year is his best option – what he’d be declaring by opting in – there’s no good reason to opt in. He could just opt out and re-sign on a one-year contract while giving himself a $1,858,679 raise.
"
If Love intends on signing a five-year pact with the Cavaliers, he has to opt out first. If he instead decides a half-decade pledge isn't in the cards, he's still likely to opt out—and if that's the course of action he explores, he's just as likely to stay.
Dynastic squads aren't built overnight, after all. The Cavaliers have obvious flaws that can only be treated and remedied in time. Their eighth-ranked offense can still improve. Their bottom-two defense can get better.
In the event all their problems aren't solved in time to win a title this season, their "failure" can be chalked up to growing pains. Coach David Blatt is installing a new offense, Irving and Love will be new to the playoffs and the Cavaliers are still figuring out individual roles.
Leaving after one year, knowing all this, wouldn't do wonders for Love's image. James made it perfectly clear in his return letter for Sports Illustrated that it would take time for the Cavaliers to win. While trading for Love certainly expedites the process, he wasn't brought in under the guise that James was promising eight championships in eight years—nor has James changed his tune.
"It’s going to be a challenge, but I think I can do it, I think we can do it,” he said, per Sporting News' Sean Deveney. "...A lot of bad habits have been built up over the last couple of years and when you play that style of basketball, it takes a lot to get it out of you, but I’m here to help and that’s what it’s about.”
Abandoning Cleveland in the wake of coming up short or role confusion would paint Love as irrationally impatient. It's not as if they don't have the talent to finish what they started. James is still the world's best player, Irving remains a talented scorer and passer and Love continues to hoard rebounds and drain three-pointers in volume.
Whatever the issue, the Cavaliers, so long as they house Love, James and Irving, have the manpower to overcome it.
Dollars and Sense
Even if Love isn't sold on the "time and talent heals all" concept, he's still more likely to remain in Cleveland than leave. Not only can the Cavaliers offer him more money than any other team, but Love has the option of following James' lead by signing a short-term contract that allows him to explore free agency in 2016—just in time for the projected salary-cap boon.
Assuming the NBA doesn't find a way to funnel its TV money into the salary cap over time, Grantland's Zach Lowe says the 2016-17 ceiling could settle in around $90 million. The difference in player salaries would amount to tens of millions of dollars over the life of a contract in this scenario. Max-deal stars like Love stand to make bank by setting themselves up for 2016 free agency.
Forgoing huge paydays in favor of shorter contracts is admittedly a risky endeavor, hence why most players haven't done it in the past. But this isn't the past. The NBA has never been staring at a potential cap boom like this. Imminent free agents will consider positioning themselves for another run in 2016. The reward is too big for them to ignore completely—especially for players like Love.
At 26, he is only now entering his prime. He has the time and clout—and therefore the means—to bet on himself. He can sign a one-year deal with the Cavaliers, replete with player options that protect him against injury or drastic regression, without putting his long-term earning potential in jeopardy.
Going that route also buys him another year's worth of loyalty. Love would have all of 2015-16 to evaluate the Cavaliers' progress. Then, when July 2016 rolls around, he can make a more informed and acceptable decision to stay or leave.
Should he choose to stay, he can sign a massive five-year deal worth a ton more than the contract he still might sign this July. Should he decide to leave, the Cavaliers will have only sapped him of two prime years. He'll be 27, going on 28, with plenty of time still left to contend for and cage championships.
The latter, at this time, is the worst-case scenario for the Cavaliers: two total years of Love. While far from ideal, it still safeguards them against sweating or panicking over his 2015 free agency. There aren't enough reasons for them to worry.
Any immediate inklings Love has to leave would be met with market complications in addition to everything else. Jumping ship demands he find a better a situation. Is that situation out there?
Mike Foss of USA Today argues that, under a very specific set of circumstances, there could be, all while noting what follows is still a reach:
"Let’s assume for a moment that Cleveland, like Miami in LeBron’s first year with a super team, doesn’t win a championship this year. Also assume the Cavaliers continue to struggle with their identity and roles. It’s LeBron’s team, yet Love has been the better player.
The unfulfilling season ends, Love has the option of moving, and Los Angeles offers him the most money. Why wouldn’t he take that deal? We all would take that deal.
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Unless, you know, we looked at the Lakers roster.
Syncing up with the Lakers makes the most sense—if it makes any sense at all—in 2016 when Kobe Bryant's deal comes off the books and the team has the means to add a few stars. Joining them before then at the expense of his current superteam digs would be wildly premature and lend merit to even the most implausible and underdeveloped counterplots.
This is to say, it's unlikely.
No Reason to Sweat or Fret
There are always risks when superstars enter free agency. Love's case is no different. The trick is pinpointing if and when to recognize and agonize over that risk.
If and when Love decides to set himself up for free agency in 2016, the Cavaliers could face a serious dilemma.
For now, though, their only concern is Love's free agency in 2015, which, with every possible threat in mind, offers no reason to fret at all.
*Salary and contract information via ShamSports.
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