5 Bold Predictions for Vikings' Week 11 Matchup
Following what hopefully was a rejuvenating bye week, the Minnesota Vikings (4-5) will travel to Soldier Field for a pivotal divisional showdown with the Chicago Bears (3-6). With only seven games remaining on their schedules and both teams trailing the Detroit Lions (7-2) and Green Bay Packers (6-3) in the NFC North standings, this could prove to be a season-defining matchup.
Minnesota and Chicago enter this weekend's contest trending in completely opposite directions. Prior to their week off, the Vikings won back-to-back games for the first time this season over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins. The Bears, on the other hand, have lost their previous three contests, with the most recent pair occurring in blowout fashion.
The Vikings, who have lost six consecutive games at Soldier Field dating back to 2007, will look to take advantage of the reeling Bears and claim a victory at a place where wins have come few and far between.
With an opportunity to creep closer into playoff contention and potentially eliminate a rival team in the process, the Vikings could potentially snap their Soldier Field losing streak in grand fashion this weekend.
The question remains: Will Minnesota overcome Chicago and reach the .500 mark for the first time since Week 4? Or will former Viking Jared Allen and the Bears prove to be too much for Teddy Bridgewater, Everson Griffen and the Vikings?
Adrian Peterson Won't Play; Kyle Rudolph Will
1 of 5
There is never a dull week in Vikings territory. While most players were at home relaxing and enjoying their week off, Adrian Peterson was busy fighting for the right to play again.
Peterson recently pleaded no contest in the child injury case that found him on the commissioner's exempt list. As a result of this news update, speculation immediately began to occur concerning if Peterson may return to the Vikings backfield sooner rather than later.
Despite Peterson's best efforts to expedite the process, the NFL has not yet made a decision on whether it will punish him further. Subsequently, the NFLPA filed a grievance on behalf of Peterson, ordering the NFL to immediately reinstate the Minnesota running back. In response, the NFL released a statement regarding this issue, as noted by Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune:
"And now we have a statement from the NFL regarding Peterson and the NFLPA's grievance. #Vikings pic.twitter.com/DE7mpnCk4A
— Matt Vensel (@mattvensel) November 11, 2014"
In addition, there is reportedly an internal debate as to whether Peterson should play if the NFL was to reinstate him immediately, as reported by Ian Rapoport of NFL.com:
"Sources: #Vikings executives are divided on whether they want Adrian Peterson to return immediately if reinstated. Internal battle brewing
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 9, 2014"
The whole Peterson situation remains a mess, and with no further updates (yet), it is a pretty safe bet—and a not-so-bold prediction—that Peterson will remain sidelined for at least another week, if not longer.
Lost in the Peterson news is the potential return of starting tight end Kyle Rudolph, who has been absent from the Vikings lineup with a groin injury since Week 3. As reported by Chris Tomasson of the Saint Paul Pioneer Press, Rudolph has been practicing with the team and expects to play this week:
"Kyle Rudolph was practicing today in the session open to media. Looking to return Sunday at Bears after missing 6 games due to groin surgery
— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) November 10, 2014"
While Rudolph playing remains no guarantee, as there has yet to be an official ruling by head coach Mike Zimmer, it is far more likely that he is on the field for the Vikings this weekend than Peterson.
The return of Rudolph would be a huge boost to what has been an anemic Vikings offense so far this season. While tight ends Chase Ford and Rhett Ellison have played well in his absence, Rudolph is the superior talent and offers Minnesota and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater an even bigger matchup advantage.
Peterson would surely be a great addition to Minnesota's offense this weekend, given that he has rushed for 1,396 yards and 14 touchdowns in 12 games against the Bears throughout his career, but Chicago's biggest weakness on defense has been its pass defense.
According to ESPN.com, Chicago ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game (269) and has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns this season (23). In relation to Rudolph specifically, the Bears have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing tight ends since Week 5, which is one fewer receiving touchdown than the Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals have allowed in total this entire season.
The Vikings may not be getting Peterson back this weekend, but it is safe to assume that Rudolph will be ready to roll.
Matt Kalil Will Keep Jared Allen in Check
2 of 5
After six seasons and 85.5 sacks with the Vikings, Jared Allen, much to the dismay of fans, is a member of the Bears. Minnesota opted to let Allen walk and allow his former backup, Everson Griffen, to assume his starting defensive end position.
Allen's first season with the Bears has been a disappointment, to say the least. Not only does his new team hold a mediocre 3-6 record, but the longtime quarterback nightmare has been relatively ineffective—especially by his standards.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Allen has recorded two sacks, seven quarterback hits and 17 hurries for a total of 26 quarterback pressures. While his 26 pressures have him tied for eighth among qualifying 4-3 defensive ends, his minuscule sack total of two ranks tied for 11th.
With that said, he will have a glaring opportunity to increase his sack total when he matches up with Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil this weekend. As noted by just about everybody, Kalil has been arguably the worst tackle in the NFL this season.
Referring back to Pro Football Focus, Kalil has recorded the second-worst pass-blocking efficiency (92.2), allowed the most quarterback sacks (10) and has been responsible for the second-most quarterback pressures (34).
Naturally, Kalil is the ideal offensive tackle for a slumping defensive end to face.
Although he may rank last or next to last in nearly every meaningful pass-blocking category, Kalil is coming off one of his best performances of the season against the blitz-happy Washington Redskins. He did allow Bridgewater to be sacked twice, but he was not responsible for any quarterback hits or hurries.
With Allen in a sack slump, undeniably past his prime and Kalil slowly building his confidence back, it is entirely possible that Kalil is able to keep the former Viking standout from having a noticeable impact on this weekend's contest.
While this may be a bold prediction, it is certainly not a bold assumption to conclude that Vikings fans would love to see Kalil handle Allen all Sunday long.
Everson Griffen's Sack Streak Will Continue
3 of 5
Many were skeptical—myself included—when the Vikings handed a five-year, $42.5 million contract extension to a career backup, but defensive end Everson Griffen has exceeded (presumably) everyone's expectations this season.
Griffen has been an absolute force for the Vikings. According to Pro Football Focus, he has recorded the most quarterback pressures (36) among 4-3 defensive ends, shares the lead in sacks (nine) and ranks 10th in pass-rushing productivity (10.4).
In addition to his pass-rushing prowess, Griffen has been elite in run defense as well. He ranks third in stops (20), fourth in tackles (22) and fifth in stop percentage (9.9).
While Griffen has played very well for nearly this entire season, he has been at his best over the past five games, recording seven of his nine sacks during this span. In fact, Griffen has recorded a sack in each of the past five games dating back to Minnesota's Week 4 matchup with the Packers.
This week should not be much different. His opponent this Sunday will be Bears left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who has actually been one of the team's better offensive linemen. However, Bushrod has still allowed three quarterback sacks, 21 total pressures and ranks tied for 41st among offensive tackles with a 94.3 pass-blocking efficiency.
Bushrod is coming off arguably his worst performance of the season at Green Bay last Sunday, and Griffen will have a prime opportunity to continue where Julius Peppers and company left off.
Look for Griffen to extend his sack streak to six games and continue his breakout season.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Teddy Bridgewater Will Throw Multiple Touchdowns
4 of 5
It is certainly not a rare occurrence for a quarterback—especially in this age—to throw for two or more touchdowns in a game. In fact, many guys accomplish this feat every week. So, how could projecting Teddy Bridgewater to throw for "multiple" touchdowns be considered bold? The reason is simple: It has never happened.
While Bridgewater has set a new franchise record for wins by a rookie quarterback and led multiple fourth-quarter comebacks, he is yet to throw for more than one touchdown in a game. Against the Bears this weekend, however, he will have a great opportunity to accomplish this feat for the first of (hopefully) many times in his career.
As stated previously, Chicago's pass defense ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed. On average, the Bears defense is allowing 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. This average is (slightly) inflated due to Aaron Rodgers' six-touchdown performance on Sunday Night Football last weekend. Excluding this game, however, the Bears defense is still allowing an average of 2.1 passing touchdowns per game.
Bridgewater just needs to produce an average result, relative to Chicago's defense, against the Bears this weekend and he will make this prediction fact. With that said, both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins are allowing an average of two-plus passing touchdowns per game, and Bridgewater managed only one against each team, respectively.
It is worth noting that Bridgewater has been without his safety blanket, Kyle Rudolph, since he was named starting quarterback. As noted earlier, Rudolph may return this week, which would give Bridgewater and the Vikings a significant boost to their passing attack. Furthermore, Rudolph is a far superior red-zone target than any other player on the current Vikings roster.
The Bears' porous pass defense combined with the (likely) return of Rudolph should be more than enough to get Bridgewater over this small hump and continue moving him in the direction of becoming the franchise quarterback the Vikings expect him to be.
Vikings Will Defeat Bears in Decisive Fashion
5 of 5
Given the Bears' recent showings against the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots, there are some analysts who believe the Vikings should be favored in this matchup, regardless of the fact that Minnesota has not won at Soldier Field since 2007. While most still would consider it to be relatively bold to predict a Vikings a victory, it is certainly bold to predict that the Vikings will decisively defeat the Bears.
That is what I am predicting.
There have been numerous reasons to assert this assumption on display throughout this slideshow. From the Bears' 28th-ranked defense—which is allowing an unbelievable 30.8 points per game—to an inefficient offensive line—which, for the record, is still superior to the Vikings offensive line.
To add to the pot, the Bears rank tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways (18), are tied for 11th in the NFL in sacks allowed (24) and have yet to win a game at home this season (0-3). The fact that the Vikings defense ranks second in the NFL in sacks should really make this statistic hurt.
While the Bears defense is certainly a major issue, there is no doubting the amount of talent Chicago has at skill positions on offense. The combination of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery is arguably the best wide receiver pairing in the NFL, running back Matt Forte is a multidimensional nightmare and tight end Martellus Bennett is just icing on the cake.
Fortunately, the Bears' greatest strength plays right into the Vikings' hands. While the Vikings' fourth-ranked pass defense may be slightly overrated, as evidenced by the mediocre 7.3 yards-allowed-per-pass-attempt statistic, it still is one of the better units in the NFL.
According to ESPN.com, the Vikings have only allowed two receivers to eclipse the 100-yard mark (Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson) and have yet to allow an opposing quarterback to pass for 300 yards or more.
This statistic is even more impressive considering the Vikings have faced top quarterbacks Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Robert Griffin III this season. While Brees (293) and Ryan (298) came dangerously close to surpassing the 300-yard passing mark, the statistic holds true.
Considering this data, it would not be shocking if Marshall, Jeffery and Bennett all fail to reach 100 receiving yards and Jay Cutler fails to reach 300 passing yards, which should give the Vikings a significant advantage.
History is history and statistics can only prove so much, but it should not come as a (complete) shock if Bridgewater and the Vikings manage to defeat the Bears by two touchdowns.
Score Prediction: Vikings 31, Bears 17
"#Bears defensive end Jared Allen: "I'm finally excited to win a game at Soldier Field." pic.twitter.com/MBuwAD7YQO
— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) March 31, 2014"
Maybe next week against Tampa Bay, Jared.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
