Colts Must Improve Andrew Luck's Protection for Long-Term Stability

The Indianapolis Colts have a golden goose in quarterback Andrew Luck. 

In 2014, the NFL is all about the quarterback. The Colts had theirs in Peyton Manning from 1998-2010, and then they won the lottery again to have a chance at drafting Andrew Luck in 2012. 

How can you describe just how important Andrew Luck has been to the Colts since his arrival? It may not be something that can be expressed in words, but perhaps numbers can do the trick. 

Since Luck has come to Indianapolis, he has averaged a much higher win percentage than the expected win percentage would be in those game situations. Most good quarterbacks perform at an above average rate, per Benjamin Morris of FiveThirtyEight, but Luck's chart is as impressive as any quarterback of the last 10 years, including Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. 

Luck's data is a little more erratic than those two because of the small sample size available, but the curve is clear: Luck has helped the Colts win games at a much higher level than expected, including winning around 50 percent of the time when the expected win percentage hovered between 15 and 25 percent. 

In both 2012 and 2013, Luck was in the top five among quarterbacks in win percentage added, per Advanced NFL Analytics. This year, Luck's incredible rate has lessened, but he's clearly the driving force behind the Colts' success. The Colts pass more than any team in the league when adjusted for game flow, per Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus, and Luck's got the edge in traditional volume stats like yards as well. 

All those numbers are just another way to say that the Colts need Andrew Luck. He is their present and future; the only chance the Colts have at a Super Bowl this season and in the foreseeable future. 

The Colts know this. Jim Irsay knows. The Colts wanted to make Luck's protection a premium back in the offseason of 2013, leading directly to the drafting of Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes. Irsay wasn't satisfied, however, "demanding" better protection for Luck after the Colts' Week 1 win over the Oakland Raiders. 

The Colts would draft another lineman early in 2014, selecting Jack Mewhort in the second round. 

But the amount of wear and tear that Luck takes on a weekly basis has continued to haunt the Colts. 

According to Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, Luck has led the league in total hits (hits and sacks) in both of the last two seasons, and by quite a large margin. Luck had 22 more than any other quarterback in 2012, and 25 more than any quarterback through 15 weeks in 2013. 

In 2014, it's been much of the same story. According to Pro Football Focus (login required), the Colts have allowed 48 combined hits and sacks so far this season, which once again leads the league. 

Now, the rate at which Luck gets hit isn't league-high, but it is third-highest in the league at 11.1 percent. In the piece linked above, you'll see that Football Outsiders had Luck with the fourth-highest rate in 2013. 

So what we have here is a two-fold problem. One, Luck leads the league in dropbacks (one of two quarterbacks with more than 400 dropbacks), which is increasing his chance at getting hit. The Colts run more plays than any other team in the league (74, per TeamRanking.com) and, as we've established, pass at a higher ratio than any other team.

It's a fantastic strategy for the short-sighted, week-to-week focus of winning individual games, but the consequence is that it sets Luck up to be hit frequently. 

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And that, of course, is set up by the second problem: the Colts' poor offensive line play. While the Colts pass protection looked much improved to start the season, there have been weak points that have caused Luck to deal with quite a bit of harassment, especially in recent weeks. 

The Colts are 12th in the league in total Pass Blocking Efficiency, per Pro Football Focus, but have been 25th over the last three weeks, including giving up 22 combined hits and sacks, nearly half of the team's 48 for the year. 

Undrafted rookie Jonotthan Harrison has seen his play drop off, while issues at guard have been unstable. 

The Colts haven't quite solved the interior line issue, although it seems that the Mewhort and Harrison could be long-term pieces. To combat this wear and tear, the team must develop some kind of running game over the back half of the season. 

The Colts have one of the league's softest schedules during the second half, the easiest in the league according to Football Outsiders' numbers. They should have some room to work with when it comes to play-calling.

The team needs to make every effort to win, but the Colts will need Luck's arm more than ever in the postseason and may have room to lessen his load against lesser opponents in the regular season. 

Maybe that means shorter passes to establish more yards-after-catch opportunities as well, simulating a running game with screens and quick three-step drops if the ground game struggles. It doesn't have to all be plowing into the middle of the line, but it does need to lessen Luck's load in games that don't need it.

For example, in blowouts against the Jaguars, Titans and Giants, the Colts have continued to keep Luck in the game well into the fourth quarter despite the game being all but over. 

It's all fine for now. Luck has the body to withstand hits and the Colts shouldn't change their offense in any major way. It is working, after all. In the past, the Colts have drastically sacrificed effectiveness to protect Luck, and that's not what anybody wants. 

But Luck shouldn't need to continue to pass the ball at a record pace against the team's weak schedule down the stretch. The team just needs to figure out some way to keep him upright more than they have so far. Perhaps that means shaking up the offensive line, bringing in a guy like Joe Reitz to spell a struggling Hugh Thornton. 

Maybe it just means establishing a running game earlier against lesser competition. 

Whatever it is, it must be done. After all, Luck is the golden goose.