Cardinals Must Adjust Offense but Can Be Contenders with Stanton Under Center

What was first feared and then acknowledged is now official for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer. He'll miss the rest of the 2014 season after tearing his ACL during a win Sunday over the St. Louis Rams.

The latest injury gut punch to a team that’s been whacked repeatedly was confirmed Monday afternoon by Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians, per ESPN's Josh Weinfuss.

Usually this is when we would begin writing an obituary, sitting by candlelight and recalling our fondest memories of that time the Cardinals started 8-1 (the first time they’ve done that since 1948) and led the NFC West after Week 10. Oh what fun we had, right?

But there are different tiers for NFL backup quarterbacks. There’s the young stud being groomed, the aging veteran who probably shouldn’t be in the league anymore and the still serviceable vet who’s reliable though pretty much another coach on the sideline. With all of them you’re shoveling dirt on a season if they have to start more than about four games.

What category does Drew Stanton fall under as the next-man up now with Palmer’s year over?

There are a lot of dollars attached to his name for a reason. This exact reason and this exact situation.

Stanton already started three games when Palmer missed time earlier this season due to a nerve problem in his shoulder. The Cardinals won two of them and then dropped the third against the Denver Broncos when Stanton left early with a concussion.

He’s a downgrade to be sure because every backup is a downgrade compared to the starter. That’s generally how depth charts work.

But if the right adjustments are made the Cardinals can still contend for a championship with a quarterback who’s supported by a ball-hawking defense and a fine collection of offensive weapons. Arians certainly thinks the Cardinals can still contend, though he’s sort of paid to think that.

“We can win the Super Bowl with Drew Stanton,” he told The MMQB’s Peter King. “There is no doubt in my mind.”

That depends on Arians’ wand waving during what will be the toughest test of his quarterback-whispering abilities. Let’s first understand what Stanton is before looking at what he needs to become.

Stanton has 10 completions for 20-plus yards despite only three starts and four total game appearances this year. He’s averaging a chunky completion of that length once every 10 dropbacks. That doesn’t put him too far behind Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who leads the league with 48 completions for 20-plus yards at a pace of one every 8.9 dropbacks.

So no, throwing deep isn’t a problem for Stanton, which explains why he holds a special place in Arians’ heart. Arm strength is the core foundation for success in an Arians offense with his playbook that mostly consists of long squiggly lines.

Stanton has already showed he’s plenty comfortable with the contents of those pages too. Of his 10 deep completions five came in one game, a Week 3 win over the San Francisco 49ers. To say that Arians didn’t change his game plan and approach with the backup under center during Stanton’s three starts when Palmer first went down is actually a bit of a lie.

He went deep even more often and was even more aggressive. The lesson learned: Bruce Arians doesn’t care what you think.

Consider the amount of air yards for Stanton and Palmer. Of course, Palmer’s shoulder injury surely played a role in Arians’ slightly more conservative approach with his regular starter (ever so slightly).

But the backup quarterback is always the backup quarterback for a reason, and it’s still interesting to note that even with a lesser talent at the helm of his offense Arians still pressed the pedal to the floor.

	Dropbacks	Air yards	% of total yards through air	Air yds/dropback
Drew Stanton	101	431	70.2	4.3
Carson Palmer	237	864	53.0	3.6

Stanton’s percentage of air yards is the second highest among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). That's one notable gap between Stanton and Palmer, and the other is the vast difference in the average air yards per dropback.

Those differences quantify how much Arians trusts Stanton’s arm and how much he leaned on it even if the inexperienced backup was spraying some throws. That didn’t change Sunday either, when Arians cared little about the temperature of Stanton’s arm (chilly) after coming off the bench or where his mind was (possibly on the human his wife was about to bring into this world).

With the Cardinals trailing 14-10 midway through the fourth quarter and backed up on their own 11-yard line, there was work to be done and a game to win, damn it. Stanton's first toe-dip into the game was simple enough: a completion to tight end Rob Housler up the middle that traveled about 10 yards through the air.

Then on a similar play and distance Stanton’s second throw was to tight end John Carlson, who chugged downfield after the catch for a total gain of 26 yards. So far everything was relatively routine for Stanton, with easy reads and even quicker releases.

But all that ended with his third throw, which was of the game-winning variety. You’ll notice the degree of difficulty climbed sharply…

Let’s talk about air yards some more. Starting from where Stanton released instead of the line of scrimmage and ending where wide receiver John Brown made his airborne catch, that ball traveled 42 yards.

Completing that heave after coming into the game cold and watching for about three hours shows just how much juice Stanton has in his arm and how deeply Arians believes in his backup.

We saw Stanton’s ability to get a throw over shallow coverage and deep downfield earlier in the season. His whistling, arching ball was a glorious sight in Week 2 on a 32-yard connection that looped over a linebacker.

The margin for error was tight, and Stanton was backed up just in front of his own end zone on a play that started at the Cardinals’ own 10-yard line. He was about to get walloped by an oncoming blitzer too just before releasing.

None of that mattered…

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Earlier in the same game—and in the same quarter—Stanton found himself in a similar situation. His offense was on its own 12-yard line on third down and needed to escape from a deep, dark hole quickly or risk handing over quality field position.

Stanton lined up in shotgun with three receivers bunched to his left. One was Brown, who came in motion just before the snap and settled in the near slot.

He ran a corner route up the seam and was open for only a fleeting second in a gap between the cornerback and a linebacker who had dropped back in coverage. The throw needed to be low because a ball placed at any other height would have given at least one defender (or both?) a much better opportunity to make a play.

Stanton was patient enough and waited for the route to develop. Then while staring down a six-man rush he delivered a perfect strike.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

So there’s little to worry about for these scrappy Cardinals then, right? No, because now we turn our attention to the not-at-all-small matter of consistency.

Squeezing deep throws through windows of various shapes and sizes is part of an Arians offense. As seen in the examples noted above, Stanton has been able to do that and keep things moving forward without the head coach having to give any pages of his playbook a final resting place in a fire.

But doing it with the sort of regularity Arians is looking for requires a step up to the next level. It doesn’t mean being at the top tier of NFL quarterbacks necessarily or even great. It means meeting the job description to be “good” and being consistently accurate.

It means not being a backup quarterback, and most of all it means not doing this...

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

That was a deep, sailing throw intended for wide receiver Michael Floyd in Week 3. It was left about a yard short and floated in the air long enough for San Francisco 49ers cornerback Perrish Cox to undercut its arch and reach the ball before Floyd. It should have been an interception, and Stanton was saved by the table condiments on Cox’s hands.

The juxtaposition between the solid Stanton and the wayward Stanton was shown on back-to-back throws in that game. On the previous play he connected with Floyd for a 45-yard gain. Then when Arians kept the throttle pinned disaster nearly struck.

Stanton hasn’t thrown an interception yet on his 93 pass attempts, but his scattered tossing has led to a completion percentage of only 49.5. Per PFF, that’s the lowest rate in the league for any quarterback who’s started at least one game this season. Stanton’s passer rating was also below 70.0 in two of his three starts.

That is why an adjustment has to be made by Arians. Not a significant one, though, and it should be much more of a tweak than a reshuffling. Though Stanton can connect on low-percentage passes, easier looks should be incorporated into the game plan going forward through short throws that can be turned into long gains.

Running back Andre Ellington’s role as a pass-catcher should increase even further in that capacity. Ellington has 37 receptions this season, but only seven came over Stanton’s three starts.

Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has been used in a similar role on intermediate routes and asked to find space up the middle while banging bodies. As a result Fitzgerald has collected 283 yards after the catch this season, per PFF, averaging 6.4 per reception.

Stanton will be supported by a defense that’s suffocating against the run and is tied for second in the league with 19 turnovers created. He’ll often have field position on his side, and even while trailing the score won’t be out of reach (Arizona is allowing 18.9 points per game, the league’s fourth-lowest total).

He has a lot in his favor and is aligned for success. Now he needs a little more comfort, and Arians would be wise to crank his throwing aggressiveness back just a notch or two.

Stanton’s long-term presence this season comes with uncertainty. That’s a difficult reality for a team with only a single loss staring down a tough march ahead with four division games still remaining.

That includes two against the Seattle Seahawks. If Stanton stumbles, a two-game lead over those Seahawks will seem thin fast. But if he’s comfortable and connecting deep often he’ll be a season savior.

The life of a quarterback is not a forgiving one, and there are no apologies accepted from the backup of the best team in football. The Cardinals’ season can’t sink along with Palmer.