Analyzing Early Returns on Biggest NBA Offseason 2014 Moves
The 2014-15 NBA season is still in its infancy, and it has to at least become a toddler or adolescent before we can make firm judgements on the biggest moves made throughout the offseason.
However, that doesn't mean we're unable to analyze the early returns, taking a peek at how some of the league's prominent players are faring in their new locations. The Association's 30 teams only have a handful of games completed, but it's already easy to look at trends and figure out which new arrivals have been the best fits.
Thus far, not all of them have.
While a few players have thrived alongside their new groups of teammates, others have struggled. The returns are very much mixed at this point in the year, and it remains to be seen which trends will be broken in the coming weeks.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current as of Nov. 10.
Paul Pierce Trying to Bring Veteran Savvy to D.C.
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Is Paul Pierce a bit washed up?
It's far too early to make that claim with any sense of definitiveness, but the decline Pierce experienced during his first and only year with the Brooklyn Nets has carried over and affected him during his brief tenure with the Washington Wizards. Through seven games, the future Hall of Famer is averaging 11.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting a vomit-inducing 33.3 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from three-point range.
He's even been ejected once for good measure.
"It goes by so fast," the veteran small forward said to ESPN.com's Michael Wallace. "It's crazy now, being around a lot of these young guys. And they're like, 'I remember when I was little and watching you play back in the day.' And I'm like, 'Really? I guess you're right.' I'm 17 years in. A lot of these guys were probably still drinking milk from their baby bottles, still breastfeeding, man."
His age has showed at times, but it's not as though the team is struggling. The Wizards are 5-2, and they should continue to fight for one of the top spots in the Eastern Conference throughout the season, especially when Pierce regresses to the mean. Even if that mean is lower than it's been during his earlier years, it's still higher than the level he's played at thus far.
Early Grade: C-
Chandler Parsons Joins the Dallas Mavericks
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The Dallas Mavericks shook up a decent-sized portion of their roster during the 2014 offseason, trading with Phil Jackson and the New York Knicks to land Tyson Chandler and then bringing in Jameer Nelson and a few other notable names from the free-agent pool. But while Chandler has been a valuable asset and Nelson should pick up his level of production in coming weeks, the biggest move involved Chandler Parsons.
Coming over from the Houston Rockets, the Florida product has struggled in his new digs.
Parsons debuted against the San Antonio Spurs, and he didn't exactly enjoy a fine performance. The small forward made only two of his 10 shots from the field, including a game-winning attempt that clanked off the iron. He'd rebound nicely over the next three outings, but since then, he's been mired in quite the slump, making only seven of his last 33 attempts.
As a whole, he's averaging 13.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game while shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 27.6 percent from beyond the arc. His player efficiency rating is a below-average 14.9, and perhaps most problematically, he hasn't helped Dallas' defense much.
Parsons has the tools necessary to become a standout defender, but he was often disengaged in Houston. So far, that appears to be more of a personal problem than a systemic one, as the team so desperately needs to get stops and has Tyson Chandler setting the tone in the paint.
Nonetheless, Dallas has been slightly worse on defense when he's on the floor, and that's contributed to the team's early-season bottom-five ranking in defensive rating.
Early Grade: C
Lance Stephenson Becomes a Hornet
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Though a banked-in buzzer-beating three to beat the Atlanta Hawks in double overtime will certainly sway public opinion, Lance Stephenson hasn't looked like a good fit in the Charlotte Hornets offense during his first handful of games in a purple-and-teal uniform.
Even with that heroic moment under his belt, he's averaging 8.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 5.3 assists per contest, and he's shooting just 30.6 percent from the field and 8.3 percent from beyond the arc. There's no missing digit in that last number. He's literally knocked down fewer than 10 percent of his deep looks.
It also doesn't help that he's coughing the ball up 3.3 times during the typical outing.
Through seven games, Stephenson has made a positive impact on the defensive end, but the Hornets (who already struggled putting the ball in the basket) have scored three fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. That's not a good sign, as the shooting guard has had trouble playing next to a ball-dominant Kemba Walker and a big man like Al Jefferson who demands so many touches.
Stephenson is a strong talent and a unique player—not many shooting guards can average 10 rebounds and five dimes per game—and there's little doubt he'll get better as he adjusts to his new teammates. But especially after another poor shooting performance helped allow the Los Angeles Lakers to record their first victory on the season, it's hard to think too highly of this move for the time being.
Early Grade: C
Arron Afflalo Returns to Denver
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The Denver Nuggets have struggled to remain competitive during the opening salvo of the 2014-15 season, giving up big leads in the first quarter and failing to claw all the way back into the lead down the stretch. Even though this team was filled with good shooting in 2013-14 and added more jump-shooters into the picture over the offseason, the rims have been in constant danger when the Nuggets let fly from the outside thus far.
Arron Afflalo, while he's provided a few individual scoring runs, hasn't been exempt from the poor-shooting ways during his return to Denver.
The Nuggets, who traded Afflalo to the Orlando Magic during the Dwight Howard sweepstakes a few years back, reacquired the talented 2-guard this offseason when they parted ways with Evan Fournier. He was supposed to bring veteran leadership, work ethic and two-way play to the team, but the results haven't been particularly noteworthy yet.
Afflalo, sharpshooter that he was in Orlando, is making only 38.7 percent of his looks from the field, and he's drilled just six of his 21 tries from beyond the three-point arc. Right now, he's just another struggling piece in a rotation that has too many of them.
Brian Shaw's rotation has gone 12 deep during the opening portion of the campaign, and it's prevented the team from developing any sort of continuity or identity. It's hard to pin the blame on Afflalo there, as he really has no say in those decisions, but acquiring him hasn't helped the rotation make any more logical sense.
Early Grade: C+
LeBron James Returns Home, Joined by Kevin Love
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The Cleveland Cavaliers offense is showing signs of progress, but there's still plenty of work left to be done.
LeBron James, who signed with his hometown team this offseason, hasn't looked entirely comfortable in his new threads, and his shooting has been uncharacteristically poor. The same is true for Kevin Love, who the team traded Andrew Wiggins and other prospects for after it was clear his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves was done.
But did anyone expect perfection right off the bat?
This was a team incorporating two new superstars and operating under the supervision of a first-year head coach. Early struggles were to be expected, especially on the defensive end of the floor, where the Cavs have given up far too many easy points.
With James and Love failing to play like their 2013-14 selves, it's impossible to give Cleveland an outstanding grade for their offseason moves. Then again, this team is finally relevant after years of floundering that began once James took his talents to the Miami Heat. They're still expected to turn into contenders, and that's solely because of the wheeling, dealing and signing done by general manager David Griffin during the hottest months of the year.
We'll have to split the difference.
Early Grade: B
Isaiah Thomas Joins the Phoenix Backcourt
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"But at the end of the day, I wanted to be wanted—that’s what I keep telling people—and I didn’t feel like they wanted me as much," Isaiah Thomas told USA Today's Sam Amick about the Sacramento Kings, who he thrived as a starter for during the 2013-14 season.
If he keeps up his level of performance for the Phoenix Suns, he'll have no need for worries about being wanted in the desert.
After scoring 15 fourth-quarter points on Nov. 9 to eliminate the Golden State Warriors from the ranks of the NBA's unbeaten, Thomas has averaged 16.9 points and 4.4 assists per game for the Suns through his first seven outings. He's come off the bench in each one, but it's not as though he's severely lacking playing time or opportunity in Jeff Hornacek's offensive system.
And why would he? He's helped turn the Suns into an offensive machine whenever he's on the court, allowing them to score an additional 6.8 points per 100 possessions when he plays and helps control the offense.
When Thomas chose to join Phoenix as a third point guard (though Eric Bledsoe was still a restricted free agent at the time) rather than land somewhere else as a starter, it was a bit surprising. So far, he's justified that decision, though it remains to be seen if some of the novelty of Hornacek's multi-1-guard lineups will end up wearing off down the road.
Early Grade: B+
Pau Gasol to the Windy City
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Though it was Derrick Rose drawing all the headlines for the Chicago Bulls heading into the season, Pau Gasol has been the team's most important player during the opening portion of the 2014-15 campaign. Through seven games, he's averaged 18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 2.1 blocks per game while shooting 49.5 percent from the field.
Not only does he appear rejuvenated on both ends of the floor, but he's been a main reason Tom Thibodeau's offense in the Windy City has been so much better. Gasol gives the Bulls a low-post scoring option, as well as another creative force in the frontcourt. He and Joakim Noah have already combined to play some beautiful and fundamental ball, and that's likely to continue as they gain even more chemistry alongside one another.
"Unsurprisingly, that dominance has been bred from Gasol's freedom to operate in the low post, which represents a stark contrast to his usage in Mike D'Antoni's offense with the Los Angeles Lakers," wrote Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan five games into the season before continuing with the following:
"Last season, Gasol attempted a career-low 25.1 percent of his shots within three feet of the basket, according to Basketball-Reference, while 23.6 percent of his points came via mid-range shots.
So far this season, only 19.1 percent of Gasol's buckets have come from mid-range jumpers, according to NBA.com.
"
With two more contests under his belt, 21.6 percent of his makes are coming in that manner, per NBA.com, but the number is still lower than it was with the Los Angeles Lakers, and it's more conducive to his offensive success.
Gasol is far from washed up, and he'll prove that throughout the year.
Grade: A-
Luol Deng Takes His Talents to South Beach
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Heading into the 2014-15 campaign, there was no telling which Luol Deng we were going to see.
Was he going to be the tenacious defender who could light up the scoreboard when serving as a secondary option, as he was a few years back with the Chicago Bulls? Was he going to be a tired small forward, one who had been run to tough after playing far too many minutes under Tom Thibodeau's supervision?
We have to lean toward the former at the moment.
Deng has averaged an uber-efficient 15.6 points per game on 55.7 percent shooting from the field and a 38.1 percent clip from deep. He's also added 3.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists per contest, though his contributions could still pick up in both those categories as he gains comfort in Erik Spoelstra's offense.
But most importantly, he's just made the Miami Heat better.
Though Miami is allowing more scoring when he's on the floor, Deng's presence has elevated the ability of this offense by 16 points per 100 possessions. That's more than enough to cancel out the circumstantial negative effect on defense and make him a valuable commodity.
If Deng can withstand the rigors of an 82-game campaign, the Heat will have a much better shot at remaining right near the top of the Eastern Conference.
Early Grade: A
Darren Collison Comes to Sacramento
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For the first time in what feels like forever, the Sacramento Kings are relevant.
They've stormed out to a 5-2 record, passing test after test and establishing themselves as a surprise playoff contender. And while DeMarcus Cousins has been the best player on the court, Darren Collison hasn't exactly been a slouch while replacing Isaiah Thomas in the Sactown backcourt.
Despite previous ventures as a starter, the 27-year-old point guard has never truly had an opportunity to help lead a team's offense, and he's thriving now that Mike Malone is putting the ball in his hands during crucial situations. There's a chance the media and the league alike have severely underrated Collison these last few years, which he seems intent on proving each time he steps onto the court.
Through those seven games, the speedy floor general has averaged 14.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists. While he's shooting only 40.5 percent from the field and an ugly 15 percent from downtown, he's getting to the charity stripe quite often, connecting on those freebies and coughing the ball up only 1.7 times per contest. The result has been both a career-best 18.9 PER and a handful of victories.
Oh, and his defense has actually been quite good thus far.
"Through this extremely-too-small-to-take-anything-significant-from-it-but-let's-do-it-anyway sample, the Kings are 27.4 points better per 100 possessions defensively with Collison on the floor," wrote CBS Sports' Matt Moore after the point guard sparked a road win over the Denver Nuggets. "Collison did tremendous work for the Clippers in last year's playoffs vs. Steph Curry, but a reputation of him being mediocre-to-bad defensively continues to plague him."
It shouldn't for much longer.
Grade: A
Trevor Ariza Replaces Chandler Parsons
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Trevor Ariza made the right decision when he came to the Houston Rockets, and that's a statement that can be made based only on representative color schemes.
After all, what better jersey to wear while he's red hot from the field than the red uniforms of the Rockets?
Through his first seven games back in Houston, Ariza has made 22 three-point shots, a total that leads the NBA during this early stage of the season. Perhaps even more impressively, he's knocked down 47.8 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc over the same stretch. While he's struggled from inside the perimeter, he's been such a great long-range sniper that it just hasn't mattered.
Few teams remained undefeated longer than the Rockets, who won their first six games before dropping a contest to the Golden State Warriors, and this small forward has been a big reason why.
He might not be as strong a player in a vacuum as the man he replaced, but he's a perfect fit for the team, given his shooting abilities and knack for settling in on the defensive end of the floor. As a result, the early returns have been fantastic on both sides of the ball.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Houston is scoring 113.7 points per 100 possessions and allowing 94.5 over the same span when the offseason's biggest addition is playing. But when Ariza is on the bench, those numbers change to 95.1 and 102.7, respectively. Though sample-size warnings are in effect, that's a 26.9-point difference.
Ariza will likely cool off as the season progresses, but it's already easy to see the benefits of having him back in Houston. While his short tenure with the team in 2009-10 may have been a rough one, it won't be long before he wipes away that unpleasant memory with some more positive moments.
Early Grade: A+
Omer Asik Goes to the Bayou
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Though the New Orleans Pelicans were an injury-plagued squad throughout the 2013-14 season, they've rebounded nicely and become early playoff contenders in the difficult Western Conference. While Anthony Davis has stolen all the attention (and deservedly so on most nights), he hasn't been the only impactful player sparking the turnaround.
Omer Asik needs some credit too.
The Turkish big man has been an efficient—albeit limited—scorer for the Pelicans, and his work on the glass is excellent. Asik has averaged 12.7 boards per 36 minutes through five games, and that's with his rebounding percentages sinking lower than they've been in years.
And even still, it's defense where he's made his biggest mark.
Allowing just 101.9 points per 100 possessions, New Orleans ranks No. 7 in defensive rating, which is a far cry from last year's middling finish. The rim protection has been absolutely superb, as Asik has held his own whether he's sharing the floor with Davis or left alone as the lone paint stalwart. When he's been on the floor, the Pelicans are actually allowing 6.6 fewer points per 100 possessions, dropping that defensive rating to a stingy 98.2.
And how about when he's paired up with Davis?
In those situations—which account for 118 of Asik's 147 minutes played—the Pelicans are outscoring their opponents by six points per 100 possessions. The big-man combination is undoubtedly having the desired effect in the early goings, and that's great news for their playoff prospects.
Early Grade: A+
