Fantasy Football Week 11: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

Congratulations to all Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Marshawn Lynch, Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant owners. To everyone else, please pick up the tissues from the ground and stop crying—it's getting embarrassing.

Sunday's games were defined by the domination of star players. Rodgers and Manning combined for 11 touchdowns. Lynch, Nelson and Bryant all made their play for being known as the top player at their respective positions. Even Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas, while not on the otherworldly performance level of their contemporaries, had two touchdowns apiece. 

It was a week so ripe with star scoring that the disappointments were all the more frustrating. Having Jay Cutler, Le'Veon Bell and A.J. Green provide 16 total points is frustrating enough; having them do so while Manning outscores the trio in a quarter is enough to drive a man insane, a woman insane, the reason Lauryn Hill—wait, where was I again?     

Right, fantasy football. It is not a fun game when you are losing. Quite the opposite, in fact. It is, in my humble opinion, a much more fun game when your stars are the one waxing the competition. With that in mind, let's take an early look at Week 11 and try to make that happen.

Thursday, Nov. 13	Time (ET)
Sunday, Nov. 16	Time (ET)
Monday, Nov. 17	Time (ET)
Bye Week Teams
Buffalo at Miami	8:25 p.m.
Tampa Bay at Washington	1 p.m.
Minnesota at Chicago	1 p.m.
Houston at Cleveland	1 p.m.
Seattle at Kansas City	1 p.m.
Atlanta at Carolina	1 p.m.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	1 p.m.
Denver at St. Louis	1 p.m.
San Francisco at NY Giants	1 p.m.
Oakland at San Diego	4:05 p.m.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	4:25 p.m.
Detroit at Arizona	4:25 p.m.
New England at Indianapolis	8:30 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee	8:30 p.m.
Dallas	Jacksonville
Baltimore	NY Jets

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 11 or are on the schedule for Monday night.)

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Peyton Manning, DEN	23 Points
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	23 Points
3	Andrew Luck, IND	22 Points
4	Drew Brees, NO	20 Points
5	Tom Brady, NE	20 Points
6	Matt Ryan, ATL	18 Points
7	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	18 Points
8	Cam Newton, CAR	18 Points
9	Philip Rivers, SD	17 Points
10	Robert Griffin III, WAS	16 Points
11	Russell Wilson, SEA	16 Points
12	Matthew Stafford, DET	15 Points
13	Jay Cutler, CHI	15 Points
14	Colin Kaepernick, SF	15 Points
15	Mark Sanchez, PHI	15 Points
16	Andy Dalton, CIN	15 Points
17	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	14 Points
18	Brian Hoyer, CLE	14 Points
19	Josh McCown, TB	14 Points
20	Eli Manning, NYG	13 Points

Top Dog: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning is on pace for 5,177 yards, 52 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season. His numbers in the touchdowns and yardage categories are on their way to being worse than 2013, while 12 interceptions would be his worst since 2010.

What a garbage quarterback. You should trade him immediately. Don't care if you have to get Matt Asiata or Riley Cooper in return. Do it now. 

Sleeper: Robert Griffin III, Washington

Lost in the Beltway-led discussion about benching Griffin for someone, ANYONE else on the roster is the fact he's been quite good when healthy. Griffin is completing 72.1 percent of his passes at 8.18 yards per attempt, numbers that closely align with his rookie-year statistics.

While his rushing numbers aren't encouraging, they're also explainable. In Week 1, Washington tried getting the ball out of Griffin's hands early to account for J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the Houston Texans pass rush. In Week 9, Griffin was coming back from a debilitating ankle injury—not exactly the best time to turn him loose.

With another week of rest and no questions about who will be under center, Griffin should be in line for a big day against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams against opposing quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective, and it's yet to face a quarterback who is a real running threat. This could be Griffin's breakout performance.

Beware: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Tannehill, while fine, continued to prove why he's a work in progress from a fantasy perspective Sunday. The Lions did an excellent job of bottling Miami's preferred underneath plays, limiting Tannehill to 5.45 yards per completion. While it's easy to highlight his 71.1 completion percentage, Tannehill was rendered little more than a dink-and-dump machine.

Detroit continued to expose Tannehill's weakness throwing deep passes. Only Aaron Rodgers has thrown a lower percentage of his passes 20 yards or more down the field, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But not only is Tannehill asked to throw few downfield balls, he's also bad at it. While Rodgers has completed more than half of his bombs and tossed eight touchdowns, Tannehill is 8-of-28 with a lone touchdown against two picks.

I bring this up because Miami is playing a similarly strong pass rush in Buffalo this week. The Bills lead the NFL in sacks and should be able to follow the Detroit blueprint to bottle up the Dolphins passing attack. They're vulnerable over the top when they keep their safeties in, but Tannehill hasn't proven himself capable of taking advantage.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Arian Foster, HOU	19 Points
2	Matt Forte, CHI	18 Points
3	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	18 Points
4	Jamaal Charles, KC	17 Pionts
5	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	16 Points
6	Mark Ingram, NO	16 Points
7	LeSean McCoy, PHI	16 Points
8	Alfred Morris, WAS	16 Points
9	Eddie Lacy, GB	15 Points
10	Andre Ellington, ARI	14 Points
11	Jeremy Hill, CIN	13 Points
12	Terrance West, CLE	13 Points
13	Frank Gore, SF	13 Points
14	Ahmad Bradshaw, IND	12 Points
15	Jerick McKinnon, MIN	12 Points
16	Rashad Jennings, NYG	11 Points
17	Ryan Mathews, SD	11 Points
18	Tre Mason, STL	10 Points
19	Fred Jackson, BUF	9 Points
20	Steven Jackson, ATL	9 Points
21	Bishop Sankey, TEN	8 Points
22	Shane Vereen, NE	8 Points
23	Lamar Miller, MIA	8 Points
24	C.J. Anderson, DEN	7 Points
25	Trent Richardson, IND	7 Points
26	Charles Sims, TB	6 Points
27	Darren McFadden, OAK	6 Points
28	Jonas Gray, NE	5 Points
29	Joique Bell, DET	5 Points
30	Isaiah Crowell, CLE	5 Points

Top Dog: Arian Foster, Houston Texans

Foster plans to play this week despite a groin injury. That's pretty much the best news ever for fantasy football owners. Outside DeMarco Murray, Foster has been the most consistent running back in football this year. He's had more than 100 total yards in six of his seven games this season, and the lone exception came when he was obviously limited by a hamstring injury.

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

His status is obviously worth monitoring throughout the week. It's possible that Alfred Blue will see more work, so it'll be imperative to check practice reports to make sure Foster is at or close to 100 percent. Assuming he's ready to go, though, there is little reason to not expect a strong performance.

The Browns rank 28th in rushing yards allowed, and Foster has performed well regardless of the front seven in front of him. Ryan Mallett getting his first NFL start may complicate things a bit, but not enough to knock Foster off his perch.

Sleeper: Terrance West, Cleveland Browns

David Richard/Associated Press

West was owned in less than a third of ESPN.com leagues a week ago. Now it appears he's on the precipice of a breakout down the stretch. West received a career-high 26 carries against the Bengals on Thursday, gaining 94 yards and a touchdown. More notably, the rookie had more touches than Isaiah Crowell and Ben Tate combined.

The Browns appear committed to all three backs, so this is a situation worth diving into with some trepidation. On any week Mike Pettine may throw his hands up and go with the hot hand. None of the backs is worth dumping in any format, mostly because they all could find their way into the "sleeper" space on any given week.

For now, West appears to have the edge. That's good enough for legit top-15 status on a surprisingly strong offense.

Beware: C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos

Just when you think a Broncos running back has an iron grip on the starting job, he goes and gets hurt. Ronnie Hillman will miss at least the next two weeks after suffering a foot sprain in Sunday's game against the Raiders, per Mike Klis of The Denver Post. 

I've been on record saying Hillman should keep the Broncos' starting job once Montee Ball returns from injury. C.J. Anderson, meanwhile, may have something to say about either of them returning to the field. 

Anderson accounted for 163 total yards and a touchdowns against Oakland as Hillman spent most of his day on the sidelines. The second-year back made a beautiful 51-yard touchdown reception that helped Denver turn the game around near the end of the first half. With Hillman ailing, Anderson excelled in his first look as lead back.

Ball should return from his groin injury this week. The second-year back was struggling before his injury but didn't appear in any real danger of losing his starting job. It'll be interesting to see how John Fox chooses to deploy him on Sunday. Anderson, who is a must-add in all leagues, is a risk until we get a better idea.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Jordy Nelson, GB	19 Points
2	Antonio Brown, PIT	18 Points
3	Calvin Johnson, DET	18 Points
4	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	17 Points
5	Julio Jones, ATL	15 Points
6	A.J. Green, CIN	15 Points
7	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	14 Points
8	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	14 Points
9	Randall Cobb, GB	13 Points
10	Brandon Marshall, CHI	13 Points
11	T.Y. Hilton, IND	13 Points
12	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	12 Points
13	Brandon LaFell, NE	12 Points
14	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	11 Points
15	Sammy Watkins, BUF	11 Points
16	Anquan Boldin, SF	10 Points
17	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	10 Points
18	Mike Evans, TB	9 Points
19	Julian Edelman, NE	9 Points
20	Golden Tate, DET	9 Points
21	DeSean Jackson, WSH	9 Points
22	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	8 Points
23	Roddy White, ATL	8 Points
24	Mike Wallace, MIA	8 Points
25	Vincent Jackson, TB	7 Points
26	Reggie Wayne, IND	7 Points
27	Andre Johnson, HOU	7 Points
28	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	7 Points
29	Martavis Bryant, PIT	7 Points
30	Brandin Cooks, NO	6 Points
31	Doug Baldwin, SEA	6 Points
32	Dwayne Bowe, KC	6 Points
33	Rueben Randle, NYG	6 Points
34	Kenny Stills, NO	6 Points
35	Mohamed Sanu, CIN	6 Points
36	Greg Jennings, MIN	5 Points
37	James Jones, OAK	5 Points
38	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	5 Points
39	Marques Colston, NO	5 Points
40	Keenan Allen, SD	5 Points

Top Dog: Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

For one of the world's five best receivers, Nelson doesn't get nearly the credit he deserves. Having Aaron Rodgers around makes things easier, but Nelson has one of the NFL's best all-around skill sets when healthy.

Morry Gash/Associated Press

The former Kansas State star is on pace to surpass or match his career-high 15 touchdown receptions from 2011. Keep in mind that the Packers offense struggled for most of the first four weeks, to the point some worried about whether they'd be the juggernaut most expected.    

There are no worries anymore. Rodgers is again the planet's best quarterback. Nelson and Randall Cobb are again the recipients of abundant receptions inside the painted area of the field. It's time to sit back and let the good times roll.

Sleeper: Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Something tells me Ben Roethlisberger is enjoying the Martavis Bryant era. The pair have connected for six touchdowns since Bryant's debut four weeks ago, including at least one in every contest. Roethlisberger's 80-yard strike to Bryant in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss to the Jets was one of a select few positives from Pittsburgh's side.

Bryant, for the time being, has emerged ahead of Markus Wheaton as Roethlisberger's clear second-favorite target. The high-variance of touchdown-heavy receivers aside, the former Clemson star should be in line for a fifth straight solid outing against the Titans.

Tennessee is a far worse pass defense than the counting stats would suggest and should leave enough plays for both Antonio Brown and Bryant to have solid games.

Beware: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

With two 100-yard games in the last three weeks and a solid 70-yard outing mixed in between, Fitzgerald has seemingly solved all the individual woes that plagued the first half of his season. But once again a force outside his nature has unfortunately rolled back that progress.

Carson Palmer's knee injury again leaves Fitzgerald with a below-average quarterback, as Drew Stanton will take over for the stretch run. Head coach Bruce Arians confirmed Monday that Palmer will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL, via Kent Somers of AZCentral.com.

In the three games Stanton played earlier this season Fitzgerald did not post top-five fantasy points once. He'd also seemingly taken a backseat to Michael Floyd, who has been rendered largely irrelevant since Palmer's return.

It's hard to say whether that was a three-game blip that will smooth out over a larger sample or a trend that portends to the future. Either way, Fitzgerald's return to top-20 status is in major jeopardy.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Rob Gronkowski, NE	12 Points
2	Jimmy Graham, NO	12 Points
3	Julius Thomas, DEN	11 Points
4	Antonio Gates, SD	8 Points
5	Greg Olsen, CAR	7 Points
6	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
7	Dwayne Allen, IND	6 Points
8	Mychal Rivera, OAK	6 Points
9	Jared Cook, STL	5 Points
10	Delanie Walker, TEN	5 Points
11	Travis Kelce, KC	5 Points
12	Charles Clay, MIA	5 Points
13	Heath Miller, PIT	5 Points
14	Zach Ertz, PHI	4 Points
15	Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB	4 Points

Top Dog: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

There are three relevant tight ends. Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. The remaining 29 starters have varying levels of talent but have become interchangeable from a fantasy perspective. Antonio Gates and Greg Olsen are probably the exceptions to that rule, as the former is scoring touchdowns at will and the latter is one of exactly two above-average pass-catchers in Carolina's offense.

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

On a week-to-week reliability scale, though, no one touches the trio at the top. Gronkowski sits atop the rankings for Week 11 because his combined touchdowns and yardage production is better than that of his contemporaries, but it wouldn't shock me to see either Graham or Thomas take top billing. After all there was once a Jimmy Graham Nonsense Theatre segment to this piece because it became redundant to write about the same player's elite abilities every week.

Anyone outside those three leading the way? Color me befuddled.

Sleeper: Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Speaking of repetition, this is the third straight week Rivera has sat in this space. Irrelevant for most of the first half, Rivera has 21 receptions for 185 yards and three touchdowns over his last three games. He and Derek Carr have a strong connection underneath, if only because underneath is the only place Carr has been completing balls of late.

That's not exactly encouraging given the criticisms of Carr coming out of college, but it'll be just fine for Rivera owners. The Raiders head to San Diego this week, which has been a death bed for opposing tight ends all season. Given his volume of work, though, Rivera has earned (some) trust.

Beware: Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Walker suffered a concussion in the second quarter of Sunday's loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He had to be carted off the field after taking a scary hit from Baltimore safety Terrence Brooks and will have to pass the NFL's concussion protocol before playing again.

Tennessee doesn't play until Monday night against Pittsburgh. Monitor Walker's status throughout the week and have a backup plan in place. At 2-7, the Titans have little reason to risk Walker's long-term health.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	at Tennessee Titans	13 Points
2	Detroit Lions	at Arizona Cardinals	13 Points
3	Denver Broncos	at St. Louis Rams	12 Points
4	San Diego Chargers	vs. Oakland Raiders	11 Points
5	Arizona Cardinals	vs. Detroit Lions	10 Points
6	Chicago Bears	vs. Minnesota Vikings	10 Points
7	Buffalo Bills	at Miami Dolphins	9 Points
8	Miami Dolphins	vs. Buffalo Bills	9 Points
9	Washington	vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7 Points
10	Minnesota Vikings	at Chicago Bears	7 Points
11	Seattle Seahawks	at Kansas City Chiefs	6 Points
12	Kansas City Chiefs	vs. Seattle Seahawks	6 Points
13	Cleveland Browns	vs. Houston Texans	6 Points
14	New England Patriots	at Indianapolis Colts	6 Points
15	Green Bay Packers	vs. Philadelphia Eagles	6 Points

Top Dog: Pittsburgh Steelers

In two starts, Zach Mettenberger is yet to throw a pick-six. He actually looked pretty strong at points against Baltimore before struggling down the stretch. For a rookie sixth-round pick, it's hard to quibble with the way he's played in limited action.

I'm just doing the "rookie sixth-round pick" math here. Dick LeBeau isn't throwing his fastball on a weekly basis anymore, but the 77-year-old defensive coordinator lives for moments like these. LeBeau's exotic blitzes have been confusing young quarterbacks since Mettenberger's parents were in diapers.

Mettenberger's first pick-six, like winter, is coming.

Sleeper: Chicago Bears

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Ranking the Bears' defense inside the top 10 after their last two weeks is akin to, well, I have no proper simile or metaphor. It seems quite moronic. With Minnesota's offense also floundering, though, something has to give. Either is as plausible as the other.

Beware: Chicago Bears

The Bears are the first team since the 1923 Rochester Jeffersons to allow 50 points in consecutive games, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk. To give you an idea of how long ago that was, we had not yet even approached the Great Depression. My great grandmother was four years old. No one worried about the price of gas because like 6.5 people had cars. (Estimate may not be accurate.)

Banking on this historically putrid Chicago defense, as I said a couple paragraphs ago, could be quite moronic. So, you know, cross your fingers and such.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	12 Points
2	Cody Parkey, PHI	11 Points
3	Mason Crosby, GB	11 Points
4	Matt Bryant, ATL	11 Points
5	Phil Dawson, SF	11 Points
6	Caleb Sturgis, MIA	10 Points
7	Adam Vinatieri, IND	10 Points
8	Dan Carpenter, BUF	9 Points
9	Shayne Graham, NO	9 Points
10	Shaun Suisham, PIT	8 Points
11	Chandler Catanzaro, ARI	8 Points
12	Steven Hauschka, SEA	8 Points
13	Nick Novak, SD	7 Points
14	Graham Gano, CAR	7 Points
15	Brandon McManus, DEN	7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

Dude stays kicking field goals.

Sleeper: Caleb Sturgis, Miami Dolphins

Dude's been kicking a bunch of field goals lately.

Beware: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears

Dude hasn't kicked a field goal since Week 6.

Waiver-Wire Advice

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Mark Sanchez	QB	Philadelphia Eagles	36.7%
Robert Griffin III	QB	Washington	32.0%
Tre Mason	RB	St. Louis Rams	45.2%
Charles Sims	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26.5%
C.J. Anderson	RB	Denver Broncos	2.8%
Greg Jennings	WR	Minnesota Vikings	40.2%
Jarvis Landry	WR	Miami Dolphins	7.7%
Kenny Stills	WR	New Orleans Saints	6.1%

Grab Him Now: Robert Griffin III (QB, Washington)

We've already covered Griffin a good deal, so there's no need to reiterate the same points. For those looking for a Carson Palmer replacement or merely hoping to move on from the likes of Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco, Griffin is available in more than 60 percent of leagues and will be a viable option if he stays healthy. 

Which, of course, you know already. The phase "if he stays healthy" is implied at the end of every Griffin-related sentence. Keep the your current starter around just in case, but deploy a heavy dose of Griffin for now.

Stash Him While You Can: Charles Sims (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

The Buccaneers want to see what they have in the rookie Sims. And, with their playoff hopes swirling around the commode, it's hard to blame them. Sims played just 23 snaps compared to Bobby Rainey's 44 last week and didn't do much when in the game, but casting blame on someone nearly a year removed from his last regular-season contest is a little silly.

Tampa drafted Sims in the third round envisioning him taking a Matt Forte-like role within the offense. The front office appears to have done well drafting Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins this offseason, so they've engendered some faith that Sims will be a solid option.

With Doug Martin appearing to be a thing of the past and Rainey a stopgap solution, look for the Bucs to start giving Sims the bulk of the workload.  

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Carson Palmer	QB	Arizona Cardinals	67.4%
Andy Dalton	QB	Cincinnati Bengals	62.5%
Darren Sproles	RB	Philadelphia Eagles	82.6%
Branden Oliver	RB	San Diego Chargers	58.0%
Lorenzo Taliaferro	RB	Baltimore Ravens	54.9%
Michael Crabtree	WR	San Francisco 49ers	82.9%
Michael Floyd	WR	Arizona Cardinals	75.4%
Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	Minnesota Vikings	56.6%

Wondering who to drop? Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or more of ESPN.com leagues you can feel free throwing back into the waiver pool: 

Top Drop of the Week: Michael Crabtree (WR, San Francisco 49ers)

Don't let the 51-yard heave fool you. Michael Crabtree is a clear second target behind Anquan Boldin in the 49ers offense, and Colin Kaepernick may be better off looking Stevie Johnson's way more often. Crabtree has caught 40 of 68 pass attempts (58.9 percent) his way this season, compared to a 66.2 percent rate for Boldin and 77.5 percent for Johnson.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The former Texas Tech star has the second-worst drop rate among high-usage targets behind only Cincinnati's Mohamed Sanu, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He's made one touchdown reception since Week 3, and Kaepernick's 51-yard heave was Crabtree's second play longer than 25 yards all season.

From a fantasy perspective, it's baffling that Boldin is available in more leagues. Boldin caught a case of the Crabtree dropsies down the stretch Sunday but nearly doubled Crabtree's targets. If there is one 49ers receiver you want, it's Boldin. If there's one you don't, well, it's probably Kassim Osgood. But Crabtree is somewhere on that list.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All fantasy ownership percentage and stats are via ESPN