Finding the Perfect Rotation for the New York Knicks
The New York Knicks are seven games into their 2014-15 campaign, but how Derek Fisher will ultimately balance out the rotation remains to be seen.
The roster's makeup is unique, in that Phil Jackson has partially implemented his rebuild with several roster additions, though some holdovers from the prior regime remain.
Injuries have hampered the Knicks from fielding the preseason starting five. Jose Calderon hasn't suited up yet this season with a calf injury, and Pablo Prigioni has missed the last two games with an ankle ailment. Andrea Bargnani has been missing since the beginning of the preseason with a hamstring tweak.
Still, Fisher has a decent amount of talent to mix and match with early on. He's toyed with the idea of inserting smaller personnel into the triangle, starting Carmelo Anthony at the power forward against the Hawks on Saturday. Whether that becomes the team's go-to look remains to be seen.
Ahead, we'll look at what we've seen so far from New York, and what could be the best way to break down minutes once the team is at full strength.
Current Obstacles
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The way the depth chart stands right now clearly isn't ideal, with Jose Calderon still sidelined with a calf problem and Pablo Prigioni out with an ankle issue.
With two-thirds of the original point guard depth missing from the lineup—Shane Larkin is the lone natural point man healthy at this stage—Derek Fisher has been forced to get creative with those minutes through the team's first slate of games.
Iman Shumpert, who had played just 3 percent of his total minutes at point guard over the last two years, according to Basketball-Reference.com, has seen most of his minutes come at the 1 as of late.
Though his ball-handling skills would make this switch difficult on most teams, the triangle helps alleviate much of Shumpert's weaknesses there. He's logged five or more assists in each of his last three games, and he has nailed seven of his 14 attempts from beyond the arc.
In the long term, Shumpert almost certainly projects to an off-guard or small-forward type, but him honing his playmaking skills can only help his overall development. However, once Calderon and Prigioni return, Shumpert won't factor into the minutes distribution at point guard.
Andrea Bargnani is also sidelined with a hamstring ailment and won't be able to return before New York's Nov. 12 matchup against the Orlando Magic.
Even once he's healthy, though, with several other Knicks forwards performing well through the team's first seven games, it could be a struggle to fit the team's third-highest-paid player into the rotation at all.
Bargnani's role in the offense is to add size and the ability to score from the mid-range, and Jason Smith has filled these needs almost flawlessly.
Ahead, we'll break down what the team's ideal rotation should look like after these players return from injury.
Starting Five
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Seven games into his coaching career, it's clear that Derek Fisher is still experimenting with several lineup combinations to see what fits his personnel.
The team has trotted out five different startling lineups over seven games and 106 different five-man combinations, according to NBA.com.
What's historically worked best for the Knicks over recent years, though, has been playing Carmelo Anthony at the power forward and loading the lineup with three catch-and-shoot options along the perimeter. Fisher started Anthony at the 4 for the first time Saturday against the Atlanta Hawks, and the team enjoyed its most successful offensive half of the season during the first two quarters.
According to 82games.com, Anthony posted a player efficiency rating over 27 at the position last season, contributing 36 points per 48 minutes, compared to a 22 PER and 30 points per 48 at small forward.
Now that we've settled where 'Melo should log most of his minutes, and assuming Jose Calderon will handle the bulk of the point guard duties once he's healthy, this leaves three spots in the lineup to figure out.
By almost every metric, Iman Shumpert was perhaps the Knicks' second-most influential player a year ago, only behind Anthony. His plus-12.4 net rating was second-best on the team, and with him off the floor, opponents scored 9.1 points more per 100 possessions.
As New York's only plus-defender along the perimeter, it's almost mandatory to include Shumpert in the starting lineup, especially with Calderon and Anthony already on the floor.
In deciding Shumpert's partner on the wing, consider lineup data from 2013-14. Among Shumpert's most efficient two-man pairings from last season, the second-best, with a plus-10 net rating, was one with J.R. Smith.
Comparing Smith's list of two-man lineups, his pairing with Shumpert was by far the most efficient—the second-best pair, with Raymond Felton, posted a plus-2.6 net rating.
It's also worth nothing that Smith played his best basketball last year after being inserted into the starting lineup. After Mike Woodson permanently named Smith a starter on March 3, he shot over 46 percent from the field and 43 percent from downtown, averaging 18 points, four rebounds and three assists.
This leaves the center position, which Fisher could go in a number of directions. Samuel Dalembert seems to be the favorite, starting all seven games so far and being able to make plays on the defensive end.
The offense has faltered with Dalembert—and his .391 true shooting percentage—on the floor, but the defense has picked up by over 11 points per 100 possessions with him manning the middle.
Cole Aldrich hasn't received much playing time over the season's early going, and metrics don't exactly support this yet, but the 7-footer has looked promising on both ends in his limited time.
He's been the team's best rebounder so far, and whatever he lacks on offense can't possibly be as noticeable as Dalembert's offensive flaws. Still, inserting Aldrich into the starting lineup doesn't seem realistic just yet.
Starting Lineup:
PG: Jose Calderon (30-33 minutes)
SG: Iman Shumpert (28-31 minutes)
SF: J.R. Smith (27-30 minutes)
PF: Carmelo Anthony (34-37 minutes)
C: Samuel Dalembert (17-20 minutes)
Second Unit
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With Calderon, Shumpert and Smith in the starting lineup, Pablo Prigioni, Shane Larkin and Tim Hardaway Jr. would then make up the smaller positions of the second unit.
Having two lead guards with experience running an offense would come in handy, and the Knicks have benefited from courting dual point-guard lineups over the last few seasons.
Both Prigioni and Hardaway are shooting over 40 percent from three-point range, and Larkin was an established shooter from long range in college two years ago, despite his 33.3 percent clip to date.
The second team could feature Amar'e Stoudemire as a focal point when New York is in need of scoring, though a Stoudemire-Hardaway pairing would feature two of the most unwilling passers in the entire league—Hardaway averaged 17.05 passes per game last season, and Stoudemire just 17.61, according to NBA.com.
This is why having two point guards on the floor—to help promote ball movement—would be ideal.
Fisher should also make it a point to include Jason Smith as often as possible at the power forward slot. Smith has put together a solid stretch offensively so far, knocking down 56.6 percent of his looks—most of which being jumpers in the 18-foot range.
Though both Smith and Stoudemire serve roles in the offense, neither can be relied on to anchor the defense as a center. This makes it essential to pair them with a true center—either Dalembert or Aldrich—whenever possible.
2nd Unit:
PG: Pablo Prigioni (17-20 minutes)
SG: Shane Larkin (14-17 minutes)
SF: Tim Hardaway Jr. (20-23 minutes)
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire/Jason Smith (22-25 minutes)
C: Cole Aldrich (10-13 minutes)
The Leftovers
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The Knicks may not have a supremely talented roster, but most of their 15 men could likely be rotation players somewhere in the league—which inevitably leads to a handful of worthy players getting stuck on the end of the bench.
Quincy Acy has started two games at power forward for New York over the first seven games, but if Fisher makes the necessary adjustment of bumping Anthony to power forward for most of his minutes, Acy's role will likely decrease.
He has a great motor and is deserving of spot minutes in the frontcourt, but as a defensive forward whose primary defensive tactic is to foul—he's averaged 5.3 fouls per 36 minutes over his career—granting him more than spot minutes doesn't really benefit New York.
Cleanthony Early projects to be a decent prospect as a combo forward in the future. He's shot the ball well in limited minutes this season as a rookie and has the athleticism and frame to make an impact defensively. But with so many wing players blocking his way to the hardwood this season, Early may need to wait until his sophomore campaign to see impact minutes.
Travis Wear, the Knicks' other rookie who made the club out of training camp, has shown why he's on the roster in limited time. He played a part in the team's victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers earlier this season, stretching the floor with a long 6'10" frame and even showing a bit of playmaking ability.
But with Anthony, Stoudemire, Jason Smith and other Knicks forwards all deserving burn, Wear may be better off spending some time in Westchester with New York's NBA Development League affiliate.
Lastly, Andrea Bargnani, who still hasn't returned from a hamstring tweak suffered in the preseason, may have seen his role on the team vanish.
Jason Smith is effectively carrying out Bargnani's role, and with no meaningful success in a Knicks uniform to his name, it wouldn't make sense to take minutes away from current rotation members to entertain the thought of Bargnani fulfilling his potential—a pipe dream that has never come to fruition over his eight-year career.
Leftovers:
Cleanthony Early (5-8 minutes)
Quincy Acy (9-12 minutes)
Travis Wear (2-5 minutes)
Andrea Bargnani (0-3 minutes)
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