AP College Football Poll 2014: Official Top 25 Rankings and Week 12 Projections
One of the most unpredictable college football seasons in recent memory kept on delivering in Week 11. The wreckage of a stacked slate of games left the Associated Press voters (and ultimately the College Football Playoff Committee) with some difficult teams to assess before Week 12.
Baylor, Ohio State and Arizona State all scored massive wins that saw them shoot up the polls. The Bears' dismantling of Oklahoma resonated with the voters, as they escalated to No. 6 in the new AP poll. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Arizona State took huge strides toward erasing embarrassing losses early in the season with wins over Michigan State and Notre Dame, respectively.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Those weren't the only teams that were shifted around in the latest rankings. Here's a look at how each team stacks up according to the most recent poll, along with a look ahead to Week 12's marquee games.
| 12 p.m. | No. 18 Clemson at No. 24 Georgia Tech | CLEM -3 | Clemson 27-17 |
| 3:30 p.m. | No. 1 Mississippi State at No. 4 Alabama | BAMA -7 | Alabama 23-20 |
| 3:30 p.m. | No. 11 Nebraska at No. 22 Wisconsin | WISC -6 | Nebraska 38-35 |
| 7:15 p.m. | No. 9 Auburn at No. 16 Georgia | UGA -2.5 | Auburn 45-42 |
| 8 p.m. | No. 1 Florida State at Miami (FL) | FSU -2.5 | FSU 31-28 |
Odds via OddsShark.com as of Sunday, Nov. 9 at 9 p.m. ET.
Storylines to Watch
Can Mississippi State Hold on to No. 1 Ranking vs. Alabama?
Through nine games, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have proved they deserve the No. 1 ranking. Three wins over ranked opponents and a knack for game control have put them at the forefront of the college football landscape in 2014.
However, the Bulldogs' greatest challenge just might come in Week 12. A trip to Tuscaloosa looms large as Dan Mullen and Co. look to secure a berth in the first-ever College Football Playoff.
Mullen has taken the Bulldogs from a team that was 4-5 at this point in the season last year to one who is fighting to remain one of two undefeated teams in the power-five conferences. That being said, the Bulldogs have still shown some weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball, and Mullen acknowledges, via David Brandt of The Associated Press: "I give our guys credit, we're finding ways to make plays, we're finding ways to win the game, even though we're doing a lot of things that you can't do to win games."
Those things that Mullen might be referring to include failing to get the Arkansas Razorbacks offense off the field two weeks ago. Led by Alex Collins on the ground, Bret Bielema's team was able to hold a 38:35 to 21:16 advantage in time of possession, per ESPN.com.
That's something that will need to be fixed, as Alabama's ground game is potent as usual. Here's a look at how the two teams break down offensively and defensively:
The difference in Mississippi State's 17-10 victory over Arkansas was Dak Prescott. The star quarterback was inconsistent early on, but he delivered in a big way when it mattered most and threw for more than 300 yards. Putting up those kind of numbers will be considerably more difficult against an Alabama defense that has been strong against the pass since giving up 365 passing yards to Clint Trickett in Week 1.
Should Florida State Be on Upset Alert?
Moving right down the poll, the No. 2 Florida State Seminoles might not be taking on a ranked opponent, but some seem to have concern the Noles may find trouble in Coral Gables.
Jameis Winston's team will hit the road to renew its rivalry with Miami on Saturday night, and oddsmakers have it pegged as a tough game for the defending national champions. Looking at the odds this week, it wouldn't be a surprise if you had to do a double-take when you saw the Hurricanes are just a 2.5-point underdog.
However, as Clay Travis of Fox Sports points out, the Seminoles haven't been good against the spread this season:
Anyone who has followed point spreads for any length of time knows this—when something appears to be to be too good to be true, there's usually a reason. In this case, a look at the advanced metrics might present a clear picture.
In Football Outsiders' latest batch of FEI-plus numbers, Florida State is eighth overall, while the Canes are not far behind at No. 12. That places Miami as the top three-loss team in the country by that measure. It also doesn't hurt that the 'Canes have played one of the toughest schedules in the country, per Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press:
On paper, this might look like another Florida State blowout. Jimbo Fisher has not lost to Miami as head coach, and the games haven't been close. However, the Hurricanes are undefeated at home this season and just explosive enough on offense to give the Noles a scare.
Which Big Ten West Team Will Make a Statement?
Ohio State was the biggest winner in the Big Ten in Week 11. It took full control of the newly minted East Division with an impressive performance against the Michigan State Spartans.
Now it's the West Division's turn to have the marquee matchup. Nebraska will travel to Wisconsin in a battle of Top 25 teams at the top of the division standings.
The Badgers opened up as a four-point favorite and have since seen the odds only go up in their favor, but Nebraska is the team with a little more on the line. With just a five-point road loss to Michigan State, a final resume that includes a road win over Wisconsin and a win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game might be enough to squeak into the College Football Playoff.
It isn't likely. And that's far from a prediction. However, with the way this college football season has played out thus far, it's not completely out of the question. With Ameer Abdullah expected to play after missing most of the game against Purdue, the Huskers will have the current conference leader in total yards per game:
Wisconsin's offense, of course, boasts one of college football's brightest stars in Melvin Gordon, so what will be the deciding factor in this one? It could come down to who is able to make more plays in special teams. That would likely be Nebraska. According to FEI-plus numbers, the Huskers have the seventh-best special teams in the country. Wisconsin is ranked No. 81.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
