Dolphins Have No Margin for Error in Tight AFC Wild-Card Race

The Miami Dolphins have come a long way from the team who had to fight off a 1-2 start to the season, but they will have to come even further between now and the end of the season if they want to make the playoffs.

They have no choice after losing a heartbreaker to the Detroit Lions, 20-16, in Week 10. It's a tight race for the wild card, with nine AFC teams sporting a record of 5-4 or better, including three teams in the AFC East. 

The Dolphins have the talent and potential to make the playoffs, and now, they just have to play up to that standard. 

We see the talent from the Dolphins defense on a weekly basis. The unit ranked third in the league headed into Sunday's game and held the Lions offense to only 13 points (seven points coming off an interception return), 63 rushing yards on 19 attempts, 280 passing yards on 40 attempts and three third-down conversions on 12 attempts.

It struggled on the final drive but only after playing a dominant game and giving the offense multiple opportunities to win.

We were seeing the potential of quarterback Ryan Tannehill over the previous three weeks, in which he completed 68.4 percent of his throws, threw six touchdowns, only one interception and had earned a passer rating of 109.1.

Tannehill struggled on Sunday for the first time in a month and earned a passer rating of only 81.8. That's good but not good enough; the Dolphins are 15-1 when Tannehill earns a passer rating above 90 but only 5-20 when he falls below 90.

We saw the potential of the Dolphins' offensive line, but it took a step back this week as well. It allowed Tannehill to be sacked only eight times in the previous five games but yielded three sacks and a ton of pressure on the quarterback against the Lions. It averaged 4.6 yards per carry in those five games but only 2.6 against the Lions.

Those offensive struggles are to be expected against a Lions defense that is one of the best in the league and was coming off a bye. The Dolphins also didn't do themselves any favors with some missed opportunities, including a dropped would-be touchdown by tight end Charles Clay.

Things won't get any easier, though. The Dolphins have a fairly difficult schedule to close out the season, and they will have to win more games than they lose down the stretch in order to contend for the wild card.

Week	Opponent	Current record
11	vs. Buffalo Bills (Thursday Night Football)	5-4
12	at Denver Broncos	7-2
13	at New York Jets (Monday Night Football)	2-8
14	vs. Baltimore Ravens	6-4
15	at New England Patriots	7-2
16	vs. Minnesota Vikings	4-5
17	vs. New York Jets	2-8

With showdowns against Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco and New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady still ahead on the schedule, the Dolphins' margin for error is exceedingly small.

They can't even afford to look further than four days down the line. The Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills for a huge AFC East divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Bills are coming off their own devastating four-point loss, but they have had the Dolphins' number lately with three straight wins and a 1-4 record against Tannehill. 

Beyond the schedule, the Dolphins are facing some on-field challenges as well. The offensive line could be moving on without one of its key players after left tackle Branden Albert went down with a knee injury in the second quarter against the Lions.

Albert's injury begins some flux on the offensive line, with rookie right tackle Ja'Wuan James moving from the right to the left and Nate Garner subbing in at right tackle for James. If Albert is indeed done for the year, the offensive line is going to have to maintain its high level of play and without its best player, or it will need to make some adjustments and hope that the offense doesn't take a step back in the process.

The Dolphins will need to pull off an upset down the stretch at some point this season, and aside from a road game against the Broncos, there are no games on the schedule that look patently unwinnable.

It may be too much to ask for the Dolphins to go 6-1 down the stretch in the season, but a 5-2 or 4-3 finish in the final seven games of the season will be enough to keep them in the hunt for the playoffs until the end of the season.

With strong performances against playoff contenders like the Patriots and San Diego Chargers this season, along with close finishes against the Lions and Green Bay Packers, the Dolphins have shown that they can hang with some of the best teams in the NFL.

Now, they just need to prove it for the next seven weeks, and they will earn a playoff bid for the first time since 2008.

Follow @ErikFrenz