Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as Playoff Championship Contender
We've gained a bit of clarity from the College Football Playoff, at least as far as which teams are perceived as the best in the country when a group of impartial voters are locked together in a room for two days every week. But rankings only provide a pecking order; they don't always tell the true story.
Namely, who is really a championship contender and who's just ranked high on a list.
Four weeks are left before we'll know for certain which teams get to play it out in the first-ever playoff at the FBS level, but while we creep toward the official pairings announced on Dec. 7, we take a look at the Top 10 teams and gauge how realistic their chances are to win a national title.
Buy or sell? Check it out, and then let us know what you think.
10. Ole Miss Rebels
1 of 10
Selling
Only with a massive amount of help from other teams—paired with a win over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl—will Ole Miss (8-2) get into the playoff. But even if that were to happen, the Rebels don't have the makeup of a championship-contending team.
For so much of the season, it's been the Ole Miss defense that has been praised—and rightly so. That unit has been one of the best in the country, but in today's college game, being good on defense isn't enough. There's going to be an off game on that side of the ball, and without the ability to pick up the slack with offense, the chances of winning the big games are slim.
After falling behind late at LSU, the Rebels didn't have what it took to make a comeback. Then, in the loss to Auburn, their offense could only do so much before falling short in the end. Both games featured mistakes by quarterback Bo Wallace, who, when push comes to shove, becomes very error-prone.
Ole Miss is a very good team, but it's not a title contender.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 29 vs. Mississippi State
9. Auburn Tigers
2 of 10
Selling
Last year, Auburn (7-2) got by with a defense that wasn't very good because its offense was too tough to stop. But not this season. In 2014, the Tigers are still putting up points, though not necessarily as explosively, which makes each defensive breakdown more pronounced.
All anyone needs to look at for clarity on this topic is how Auburn's defenders tackled—or, rather, poorly tried to tackle—Texas A&M players last week in the 41-38 home loss.
Brandon Marcello of AL.com wrote that Auburn defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson "counted at least 11 missed tackles resulting in 114 yards after first contact" against the Aggies. That accounted for more than 25 percent of the 453 yards Auburn allowed and was a significant contributor to the 35-17 halftime deficit and why it took until the final minutes of the fourth quarter for the Tigers to get close enough to have a chance to win.
In the end, the two late fumbles directly led to the loss, but the problems were there already. And with games at Georgia and Alabama still to come, the opportunities for more mistakes will lead to further defensive breakdowns and likely more losses.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 15 at Georgia
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
3 of 10
Buying
Ever since losing at home to Virginia Tech, it seemed like the entire college football world—outside of the Big Ten, at least—was pretty much done with Ohio State (8-1). Even as the Buckeyes kept putting up huge numbers on offense, led by a fast-rising young quarterback whose performance arc was starting to resemble that of recent redshirt freshman Heisman winners, there was a constant cloud of doubt looming over them.
Then came last week's massively impressive win at Michigan State, the team that had essentially been tabbed as the Big Ten's one and only playoff hope, so now it's time to give Ohio State a much closer look to determine its worthiness as a contender.
Whether it'll move into the top four remains to be seen, but what isn't as debatable is how good this team is and how great J.T. Barrett has been over the past two months.
"The performance by the Buckeyes—and Barrett in particular—was a testament to what may be the nation's most improved team this fall," wrote Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports.
Barrett has 23 touchdown passes and only three interceptions during OSU's seven-game win streak, completing 66.7 percent of his throws while also remaining a viable running threat.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 15 at Minnesota
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Baylor Bears
4 of 10
Selling
Baylor (8-1) has the distinction of being the team that could make or break the College Football Playoff in its current format. By having a head-to-head win over a team ranked above them (TCU), the Bears have something to campaign with. But by also having a woefully weak nonconference schedule, they have a black mark on their record that might be hard to overcome.
Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval noted on Twitter that, if both Baylor and TCU end up tied atop the Big 12 and Baylor gets into the playoff by virtue of its win over the Horned Frogs, "there is no incentive to schedule a tough OOC game ever."
That's the thing that's working against the Bears more than anything when it comes to being looked at as a legitimate playoff contender, basically ignoring anything they've done on the field in Big 12 play. And those results have been pretty good, particularly the second straight blowout over Oklahoma with last week's 48-14 victory coming in Norman.
Yet Baylor has also had far too many stretches of uneven play this season, struggling offensively at Texas and getting taken out of its comfort zone at West Virginia. And though it rallied to beat TCU, the fact the Bears were down 21 at home in the fourth quarter is hard to ignore.
Being down by three touchdowns on a neutral field, in a playoff atmosphere, would be much different.
Next stock evaluation: Dec. 6 vs. Kansas State
6. Arizona State Sun Devils
5 of 10
Buying
It's amazing what beating Notre Dame handily will do for a team's reputation. After winning 55-31 over the Fighting Irish last Saturday, Arizona State (8-1) leaped into a playoff bubble spot and is trending significantly upward at the right time.
"We're done sleeping on the Arizona State Sun Devils," wrote Caleb Calhoun of Sports Illustrated's SaturdayBlitz.com. "Todd Graham has a powerhouse team that might be the best in the Pac-12."
Sure, Everett Golson helped ASU's cause with his many miscues, but the Sun Devils had to capitalize on those mistakes and did so in spades. Their offense wasn't as explosive as in other games, but it didn't need to be with a defense that's making big plays and before the Notre Dame game had allowed 36 points in the previous three contests.
Taylor Kelly missed three games with a broken foot but since returning has been gradually easing back into his role as a productive leader.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 28 at Arizona
5. Alabama Crimson Tide
6 of 10
Buying
Alabama (8-1) will likely never get many votes for flashiness, even with a more modern offensive approach under new coordinator Lane Kiffin. But the Crimson Tide don't need the flair and the style points, not as long as they essentially hold the SEC's fate in their hands.
By hosting both Mississippi State and Auburn over the final three weeks, Alabama has the inside track on the West Division title. It hasn't lost there in two years, and most of the games in Tuscaloosa haven't been close.
But the Tide's value as a contender isn't just because of what's coming up but also what's been done to this point. Their four wins away from home have been only by an average of eight points, but as a team that usually gets the opponent's best effort, being able to win those games is huge in its own right.
Losing at Ole Miss was during Alabama's midseason lull, but since then, the results have been far more impressive. Throw in the ability to rally late at LSU, forcing overtime and then controlling the extra period, and this team has the momentum needed to be a true contender.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 15 vs. Mississippi State
4. TCU Horned Frogs
7 of 10
Buying
TCU (8-1) has been through the gauntlet of its schedule and has come out nearly unscathed. Aside from a late collapse at Baylor, the Horned Frogs looked great during a six-game stretch that featured five games against teams ranked at the time.
There was also that little 82-point explosion against Texas Tech that needs to be pointed out.
By being able to play its style in every game, TCU has been the team that's been in control throughout the season. It hasn't been a matter of the Frogs taking what's given to them, but rather they've been the ones being assertive and, therefore, successful.
Trevone Boykin's rise from a guy without a position to one who could get an invite to New York City for the Heisman ceremony perfectly correlates to how TCU went from a team struggling to find its place in the Big 12 to a true title contender.
The only thing that might get in the Frogs' way now is maintaining that perception through an admittedly soft finish to their schedule. Aside from the Thanksgiving game at Texas, their remaining games are against Big 12 bottom-feeders Kansas and Iowa State. And with no conference title game to use as a resume builder, the chance of getting leapfrogged by teams below it could be TCU's downfall.
What won't, however, is its own play.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 27 at Texas
3. Florida State Seminoles
8 of 10
Buying
Being the defending national champions with the longest win streak in FBS in more than a decade hasn't been enough to keep the selection committee impressed. Florida State (9-0) keeps winning, but its public perception is slipping because the victories aren't whistle-to-whistle dominant performances.
But who says the Seminoles need to roll from the opening kickoff? The slow starts and early deficits are unsettling, yet the ability to rally from a variety of holes and adverse situations should count for something.
"We've won every conference game but one by double digits," FSU coach Jimbo Fisher told Daniel Uthman of USA Today. "I'm very happy with the way we played, and we're winning games. And we're winning games by significant margins also. We're great in our own way. Especially when you get everybody's best week in and week out."
That last point is worth expanding on, as there have been no easy games despite the level of the competition. For North Carolina State, Louisville and Virginia, the game against the Seminoles was the biggest of the season, and each played that way with fire early. Then Jameis Winston and his team took over, turning games they trailed by 17, 21 and six points, respectively, and ended up winning by 15, 11 and 14.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 15 at Miami (Florida)
2. Oregon Ducks
9 of 10
Buying
The playoff selection committee looks like it's pooling its money to purchase Oregon stock, based on lifting the Ducks (9-1) to No. 2 ahead of unbeaten Florida State this past week. And aside from the slow start at Utah last week, the Ducks have been playing like a championship contender for quite a while.
Almost since the moment Oregon lost at home to Arizona in early October, it has been moving up in terms of performance. Getting back some injured offensive linemen helped, but having quarterback Marcus Mariota running things has served as a great bandage for any other wounds.
In the past five games, Oregon has scored an average of 48.4 points per game—50.7 in the three road games during the win streak—and knocked off three ranked teams and five teams with winning records. The Ducks haven't been playing slouches. They've faced the best Pac-12 teams on their schedule during this run and more or less dominated.
Oregon's remaining regular-season schedule is super soft, against conference doormat Colorado at home and then at rival Oregon State in the Civil War. Everything rests on who it plays in the Pac-12 championship next month, but a loss before that would be very bad. Don't expect the Ducks to slack off.
Next stock evaluation: Dec. 5 vs. TBD in Pac-12 title game
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs
10 of 10
Buying
Mississippi State (9-0) has passed all the tests to this point, winning impressively at LSU and dominating Auburn and Texas A&M at home. It's survived the letdown game against Arkansas and kept focus during its most recent game against an FCS opponent.
But the Bulldogs still have their toughest stretch left, starting with a place where they haven't won since 2006: Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Yet until they lose, they have to be considered the favorite because of what they've done and how they've done it.
MSU has a superstar in Dak Prescott, the Tim Tebow/Cam Newton/Johnny Manziel-type quarterback who hasn't been slowed one bit yet. It has a bruising running back in Josh Robinson, who if not for Prescott's mobility would likely have far more than his 984 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Defense has been a bit of a liability, ranking 90th overall, but not enough to be too concerned—not when the Bulldogs offense has seemingly been able to score whenever needed.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 15 at Alabama
Statistical information courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
