SEC Football: Predicting Final 2014 Conference Standings
With just under a month remaining in conference play, the SEC title race is still up for grabs.
In the East, a surprising loss by Georgia last weekend has helped the Florida Gators make the division a three-dog race. In the West, several key divisional matchups can either clear up the title race or fog it up further.
There’s a good chance both divisions won’t be settled until the final weekend of the regular season.
But why wait till then? Join B/R as we take a stab at predicting the final standings for both the SEC East and SEC West.
SEC East: No. 7 Vanderbilt
1 of 14
Current Record: 3-6 (0-5 SEC)
Predicted Record: 3-9 (0-8 SEC)
The Skinny
It’s hard to imagine that just a year ago, expectations were sky high for the Commodores. Instead, the team is on track for its worst finish since 2010 and first winless SEC season since 2009.
Funny how much can change in just a year.
Through nine games, Vanderbilt has been awful. The team ranks No. 100 or worse in passing yards, rushing yards, points for and points allowed. Not to mention, the Commodores nearly lost to lowly Massachusetts and eked out a one-point victory over FCS foe Charleston Southern.
Although freshman quarterback Johnny McCrary has begun to give the team some consistency under center, Vanderbilt still needs a lot more than that to notch a win over its final three contests.
Hey, there’s always next year…or the year after that.
SEC East: No. 6 South Carolina
2 of 14
Current Record: 4-5 (2-5 SEC)
Predicted Record: 6-6 (2-6 SEC)
The Skinny
Would you believe me if I told you this was a team that opened the season ranked in the Top 10?
Since beginning the year ranked No. 9, the Gamecocks have fallen more and more each week. Following a 3-1 start, the team has now lost four of its last five games, including a surprising 45-42 loss to Tennessee in overtime last Saturday—the second consecutive year South Carolina has fallen to the Vols.
While quarterback Dylan Thompson has been better than expected under center, the team has failed to succeed in an area that was believed to be its strongest: running the ball.
Through nine games, the Gamecocks rank just No. 51 in rushing. Junior running back Mike Davis appeared poised for a breakout year, but he has just rushed for 819 yards and eight touchdowns on 158 carries.
A trip to Florida on Nov. 15 will put the team’s bowl hopes in jeopardy. However, South Carolina will be able to salvage some sort of positivity to close the season with two victories, including against rival Clemson on Nov. 29.
SEC East: No. 5 Tennessee
3 of 14
Current Record: 4-5 (1-4 SEC)
Predicted Record: 6-6 (3-5 SEC)
The Skinny
Year two of the Butch Jones era has been a step in the right direction for the Vols.
Through nine games, the team has battled some of the conference’s top dogs and played them close. Finally, just last weekend, Tennessee earned its first conference victory of the season with a thrilling 45-42 overtime victory at South Carolina last Saturday.
Sophomore quarterback Joshua Dobbs has emerged as a surprising playmaker, making smart decisions with his arm and showcasing excellent skills with his legs—he ran for 166 yards and three touchdowns in the win over the Gamecocks.
The Vols will likely drop their meeting with Kentucky on Nov. 15. However, the team will rebound to upset Missouri and clobber Vanderbilt in its final two games to gain bowl eligibility.
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SEC East: No. 4 Kentucky
4 of 14
Current Record: 5-4 (2-4 SEC)
Predicted Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC)
The Skinny
After an impressive 5-1 start, things took a turn for the worse for the Wildcats.
With confidence running high, Kentucky was brought back down to earth at the hands of LSU during a 41-3 thumping. Mississippi State and Missouri tacked on to the misery, extending the team’s losing streak to three.
With a home game against Georgia on Saturday, don’t expect the pain to stop.
Still, head coach Mark Stoops has done a tremendous job with the Wildcats in just his second season at the helm. The offense has done well with sophomore Patrick Towles at quarterback, and the defense has shown a lot of potential.
It should be enough to help Kentucky win its final two games and end the season on a positive note.
SEC East: No. 3 Missouri
5 of 14
Current Record: 7-2 (4-1 SEC)
Predicted Record: 7-5 (4-4 SEC)
The Skinny
A year after surprising much of the nation in winning the SEC East last year, the Tigers once again sit atop the division entering the final month of the regular season.
However, don’t expect that to last.
Thanks to one of the softest schedules in the SEC, Missouri has skated by relatively untested. Still, the team has done a good job showcasing several of its flaws.
For starters, although quarterback Maty Mauk has limited the mistakes, he hasn’t done much to demand respect from opposing secondaries. In fact, the Tigers currently rank No. 116 in the nation in passing (170.2 YPG).
Combine that with inconsistent play from the running back position and a tough three-game closing stretch—games on the road at Texas A&M and Tennessee before finishing out with Arkansas—and don’t be surprised if Missouri ends on a three-game slide.
SEC East: No. 2 Georgia
6 of 14
Current Record: 7-2 (4-2 SEC)
Predicted Record: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)
The Skinny
Any hope of a run into the College Football Playoff was all but gone after the Bulldogs uncharacteristically got blown out by rival Florida last weekend, 38-20.
It’s a loss that will also leave Georgia on the outside looking in in terms of the SEC East title.
Running back Nick Chubb has been a bright spot, rushing for 725 yards and six touchdowns in the absence of suspended running back Todd Gurley. But even another stellar performance from the freshman couldn’t prevent the Bulldogs from falling to the Gators.
A trip to Lexington to take on Kentucky could pose difficulties, but expect Georgia to come out motivated. Unfortunately, a visit from Auburn the following week will leave the Bulldogs wondering "What if?" this offseason.
SEC East: No. 1 Florida
7 of 14
Current Record: 4-3 (3-3 SEC)
Predicted Record: 7-4 (5-3 SEC)
The Skinny
Last year’s SEC laughingstock, the Gators have actually put together quite a solid season in 2014.
Through seven games, the team has made some impressive strides, including a 38-20 thumping of Georgia last weekend. Even in its losses, Florida has looked like a team full of potential.
Sure, the defense has underperformed in comparison to its lofty preseason expectations. But the rushing attack—No. 38 in the nation—has flourished in recent weeks.
That was especially the case against the Bulldogs, when the Gators racked up 418 yards on the ground behind Kelvin Taylor’s 197 yards and Matt Jones’ 192.
With a relatively easy finish to the SEC schedule—at Vanderbilt and against South Carolina—a 5-3 record in the conference is all but guaranteed.
And with Georgia and Missouri likely dropping a few, that leaves Florida as your unlikely SEC East champions.
SEC West: No. 7 Arkansas
8 of 14
Current Record: 4-5 (0-5)
Predicted Record: 6-6 (2-6)
The Skinny
Although their 0-5 conference record might not show it, the Razorbacks have made tremendous strides in 2014.
Three of Arkansas’ losses were by one score, and another was a 13-point loss against Georgia in which the team valiantly attempted to fight back. It only suggests that a breakthrough is on the horizon.
The key to the Razorbacks charge has been a rushing attack that ranks No. 19 in the country. Junior Jonathan Williams (137 CAR, 877 YDS, 10 TDs) leads the way, while sophomore Alex Collins (134 CAR, 840 YDS, 10 TDs) isn’t too far behind.
With a closing stretch that includes two home games against LSU and Ole Miss followed by a road trip to Missouri, not many people will give Arkansas a shot at winning a game.
But look for the team to catch LSU off guard—a week after it plays Alabama—and to take advantage of a Missouri team that has benefited from a weak schedule.
The Razorbacks will prove they are a team that shouldn’t be taken lightly in 2015.
SEC West: No. 6 Texas A&M
9 of 14
Current Record: 6-3 (2-3 SEC)
Predicted Record: 7-5 (3-5 SEC)
The Skinny
A 5-0 start had the Aggies thinking College Football Playoff. Now the team is fighting simply to remain above .500.
Three consecutive losses to Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama derailed Texas A&M’s ideas of pushing for the SEC West title. It also went a long way in wiping out all the hype quarterback Kenny Hill had built over the first month of the season.
In fact, the sophomore threw six touchdowns and six interceptions over his last three starts after going for 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions during his first five.
Hill’s downward spiral continued, as he was suspended for two games for violating team rules, per ESPN.com’s Sam Khan Jr. Freshman Kyle Allen replaced Hill and struggled to help the Aggies hold on against lowly Louisiana-Monroe, 21-16.
That’s not a good sign for a Texas A&M team that finishes at Auburn and hosts Missouri and LSU. Missouri should be the only team the Aggies beat.
SEC West: No. 5 Ole Miss
10 of 14
Current Record: 7-2 (4-2)
Predicted Record: 9-3 (5-3)
The Skinny
The Rebels’ College Football Playoff and SEC title dreams came crashing down last weekend in a heartbreaking 35-31 loss to Auburn.
Now, the team is most likely playing for bragging rights.
Although quarterback Bo Wallace has looked impressive—2,416 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions on 63.5 percent passing—it’s been the defense that has carried Ole Miss. The unit ranks No. 19 in total defense (327.4 YPG) and No. 1 in points allowed per game (13.2).
Unfortunately, the team didn’t have enough to prevent back-to-back losses by a combined seven points.
A road trip to Arkansas could prove difficult. However, it will be the Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State on Nov. 29 that will put the last nail in Ole Miss’ coffin.
SEC West: No. 4 LSU
11 of 14
Current Record: 7-2 (3-2)
Predicted Record: 9-3 (5-3)
The Skinny
Following a 41-7 clobbering at the hands of Auburn on Oct. 4, the Tigers were assumed to be dead in the water. Instead, the team has reeled off three straight impressive wins against Florida, Kentucky and Ole Miss.
Coming off a bye week, LSU will host Alabama.
In a game that will be a true test in determining just how good they are, expect the Tigers to edge out the Tide. The combination of a rushing attack that has been hitting on all cylinders in recent weeks and a defense that ranks No. 4 in points allowed per game (15.9) should be enough to bring Alabama’s national title hopes crashing down.
Unfortunately, riding the highs of that victory, a road trip to take on Arkansas the following week will be LSU’s undoing.
SEC West: No. 3 Auburn
12 of 14
Current Record: 7-1 (4-1)
Predicted Record: 10-2 (6-2)
The Skinny
It’s been a rather intense month for the Tigers.
After losing to Mississippi State on Oct. 11, the team barely escaped with victories over South Carolina and Ole Miss. Auburn won those games by a combined 11 points.
Although the team’s rushing attack doesn’t pack the same punch as it did last season, the Tigers still have run the ball successfully. Led by Cameron Artis-Payne (178 CAR, 969 YDS, 7 TDs) and Nick Marshall (95 CAR, 631 YDS, 9 TDs), Auburn ranks No. 9 in rushing yards (276.9 YPG).
Look for the Tigers to utilize that rushing attack to dispose of Texas A&M and Georgia over the next two weeks.
Unfortunately, all College Football Playoff and SEC title hopes will fade after Alabama exerts a little revenge on Nov. 29 in Tuscaloosa.
SEC West: No. 2 Alabama
13 of 14
Current Record: 7-1 (4-1)
Predicted Record: 10-2 (6-2)
The Skinny
Even in a rebuilding year, the Crimson Tide are right in the thick of it when it comes to both the national title and SEC title.
After dropping a contest to Ole Miss, Alabama has responded in fashion. The team has won each of its last three games and has jumped back up into the Top Five in the rankings.
Quarterback Blake Sims might not light up the stat sheet, but he has limited the mistakes and managed the game well. Thus far, the senior has thrown for 2,034 yards, 15 touchdowns and three interceptions.
With a visit from current No. 1-ranked Mississippi State looming on Nov. 15, don’t be surprised when the Tide lets their guard down against LSU this weekend. Playing in Baton Rouge, the Tigers will have revenge on their mind from recent years.
Alabama should rebound, knocking off the Bulldogs and beating Auburn in the season finale. But it will be a matter of too little, too late.
SEC West: No. 1 Mississippi State
14 of 14
Current Record: 8-0 (5-0)
Predicted Record: 11-1 (7-1)
The Skinny
Like Auburn the year before, the Bulldogs are college football’s darlings in 2014.
The team has answered each and every challenge this season. Add to that quarterback Dak Prescott, who is having a stellar campaign and is considered a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy.
But as the season winds down, pressure and nerves begin to settle in.
Expect that to come into fruition when Mississippi State travels into Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama on Nov. 15. Especially given head coach Nick Saban’s tendency to get his Tide teams to close out the season strong.
After throwing just 11 touchdowns to two interceptions over the first five games, Prescott has thrown just three touchdowns and five interceptions during the last three.
Although a perfect season will be wiped out by Alabama, expect Mississippi State to rebound against Ole Miss and earn a spot in the SEC title game.
All stats, recruiting information and rankings used in this article are courtesy of CFBStats.com and 247Sports.
For complete coverage and everything college football, you can reach Sebastian on Twitter and via email at Sebastian.LenaBR@gmail.com.
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