NFL Week 10 Picks: Bears Divided, Cardinals United
Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here's a warped and dented take on this weekend's games, this week featuring a disproportionate number of people with CFL connections, starting with a certain beleaguered head coach.
Note: All times listed are Eastern, lines are via Odds Shark and game capsules are listed in the order you should read them.
Bears at Packers
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Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Packers -7.5
Marc Trestman gets il bacio delia morte "vote of confidence" from management. Brian Urlacher takes talk-radio shots at Jay Cutler. Lamarr Houston and his $35 million contract land on the IR because of a post-sack boogie against a backup quarterback in a blowout loss. Lance Briggs ponders retirement, and not just because he wants to go on radio shows to take shots at Cutler. Media outlets use headlines like "Herd of Scapegoats" to describe the Bears roster. (Goats are usually grouped into "flocks" like sheep, but "Flock of Scapegoats" sounds too much like an 80s one-hit wonder.)
Going on your bye week under the circumstances the Bears faced this week is like going on family vacation when you just got downsized, Junior is flunking three classes and the missus has started taking phone calls from her personal trainer on the back porch. If you think a week off will make everything better, you are crazy.
The Bears now travel to Lambeau to face a team that has beaten them 11 times in the last 14 meetings. The Packers offensive line is banged up as usual (both guards missed practice midweek), but the Bears have even more injuries, and theirs are layered atop shifting substrata of doubt and dissension.
Handicapping games based on "team chemistry" is a great way to go broke by Thanksgiving. But there are degrees of team chemistry issues, ranging from minimum-grade "something to talk about" problems to maximum grade "it's awkward just standing in this locker room" problems that can completely sink a franchise. For instance:
Minimum-strength team chemistry issue: Anonymous sources claim that some players resent the quarterback for being "aloof" and are not 100 percent happy at all times with every decision made by the organization.
Maximum-strength team chemistry issue: A dozen media witnesses just watched three defensive players throw the kicker out of a window. And he was on fire. The coach could not intervene, because he was in the owner's office receiving a wedgie.
The Bears may not have reached maximum-strength yet, but we have reached the point of very public, non-anonymous chirping, growling, scapegoat herding and confidence-voting. It is hard to justify any these guys are ready to rally and silence their doubters' logic. Also, all the group counseling sessions and corporate retreats in the world would not change the fact that the Bears defense is terrible. Throw in a tough divisional foe on the road (and a chance of snow showers!), and it is best to assume that the Bears are too toxic to beat a good opponent until they prove otherwise.
Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 17
49ers at Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints -5.5
How the Saints win the NFC South and become a thorn in everyone's playoff sides:
• They go at least 4-1 at home down the stretch. They face the Ravens (hapless on the road), Bengals (big game against reputable foe: oh nooooooooo!) Panthers (Cam Newton's teammates will be the Broadway cast of Newsies) and Falcons in December (five words: interim head coach Mike Tice) in New Orleans down the stretch. In other words, they do not really need this game, though it is much more winnable than it looked three weeks ago.
• The Steelers beat the Saints in Pittsburgh. Wind and bad weather beat the Saints in Chicago in December, with the Bears running around the field looking busy. But Josh McCown, kept alive by voodoo zombie magic so Lovie Smith can convince himself that a hunk of flesh groaning "braaaainns" gives him a better chance to win than a mistake-prone prospect who can actually throw a football 20 yards, gets the start in the season finale. McCown's right arm rots and falls off late in the first quarter, but he stays in the game.
• The Saints finish 9-7, but the Panthers finish 8-7-1 while the Falcons and Buccaneers run themselves over while backing out of the driveway. They host a Wild Card home game against the 49ers. They travel to Dallas after the win. Who do you like in that game? Thought so.
The 49ers need this win to stay in the playoff pack and avoid some uncomfortable tiebreaker worries as their conference record starts to drop. All they need to do is select one of their 25 offensive gameplans and actually stick to it. That's a tall order.
Prediction: Saints 26, 49ers 20
Rams at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Cardinals -7
Evolution of the Cardinals' 2014 storyline:
Week 1: Beat Chargers. "There was a 10:30 p.m. game? Whose crazy idea was that?"
Week 2: Beat Giants. "Ha-ha, Eli is not elite! That never gets old!"
Week 3: Beat 49ers. "Gosh, you never know what's going to happen in the NFC West."
Week 5: Lost to Broncos. "Phew. Glad I don't have to think about the Cardinals anymore. Not that I was thinking about them before, but I was thinking about starting to think about them."
Week 6: Beat Redskins. "The Redskins obviously have a leadership void caused by the franchise quarterback who has been injured for the last month."
Week 7: Beat Raiders. "Whatever."
Week 8: Beat Eagles. "Those Cardinals sure do find ways to win, don't they? If only someone watched their game film, or their games, or their highlights, or could even name their backup running back, maybe we could determine what those ways are."
Week 9: Beat Cowboys. "If you gave Brandon Weeden a violin, he would try to blow into it."
Instead of criticizing the Cardinals' opponents or invoking mysterious "find a way" causes, I watched a couple of games' worth of their film this week, mostly because I was working on a 49ers article. The Cardinals truly are a hard team to classify, and some of the factors that have made them successful so far (blocked field goals, avoiding interceptions at an unsustainable rate) are likely to abandon them at any moment. The Cardinals play smart offense when trailing and smart defense when winning, which may be a testament to coaching and leadership, but could also be a random element that has not yet sorted itself out.
Two things the Cardinals can count on are their run defense and their turnover-happy secondary. Last week's DeMarco Murray shutdown was not just a Weeden-induced mirage: The Cardinals have stuffed the Eagles and 49ers on the ground this season, and their line-crowding/gap-shooting tactics dissuade teams from trying to pound the ball off tackle. Once opponents take to the air, the Cardinals are happy to blitz, gamble and trade completions for turnovers, as their secondary is designed to capitalize on mistakes.
The Rams want to thump the ball and make life as easy as possible for Austin Davis, who is rapidly running out of tricks, so the Cardinals will reach .500 this week, making themselves mandatory participants in the playoff discussion. Upcoming Seahawks, Niners, Chiefs and Lions games will bring them back to earth a little, but they have done enough in the first half to keep them in the conversation through December. So it is good idea to have something more informative to say about the Cardinals during that conversation than: "How about those Cardinals? They sure do find a way."
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Rams 13
Chiefs at Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even
Last week was Kyle Orton Appreciation Week. If you missed it, there is leftover cake and whiskey.
While Orton enjoyed his bye week with a 3-1 record as the Bills starter/regime savior, Brandon Weeden did more to make Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray look ordinary than Bill Belichick could do if he coached a team of 1985 Bears and 2000 Ravens. Cowboys fans remembered that Orton, while no Troy Aikman, was effective enough to keep nine Cardinals defenders from crashing Murray's rushing gaps, so they cursed the day in mid-July when Jerry Jones decided to lower the premiums on his Romo insurance.
Competence: It should never be taken for granted.
Orton Appreciation Week is officially over. The Bills face the second-toughest future schedule in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. The Dolphins (at Miami), feisty Browns (the Bills are also best classified as "feisty"), Packers, Broncos and Patriots at Foxboro are all on the future slate, with a few respites sprinkled in. Fred Jackson is back at practice and could play a role on Sunday, but Sammy Watkins suffered a groin injury mid-week. The schedule is getting harder, the injuries are mounting and the AFC is loaded with teams that could finish 9-7 or 10-6 thanks to Jets-Raiders-Jaguars record inflation.
The Chiefs are one of those 9-7ish playoff hopefuls, and not much can be said about them that you do not already know: Jamaal Charles and James Houston rock, the downfield passing game is largely mythical, the top opponents generally beat them while the weaklings typically lose. Like the Bills and Browns, they are "feisty," if a little more playoff-tested. There is no such thing as Alex Smith Appreciation Week, but if Colin Kaepernick fumbles at the goal line again …
Prediction: Chiefs 21, Bills 19
Dolphins at Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions -2.5
The Lions and Dolphins have the two best defenses in the NFL right now, according to Football Outsiders. They rank first and third in the NFL in yards per game (with the 49ers in between) and points per game (the Chiefs are in between; Lions lead all categories). Both offenses are coming around: Calvin Johnson is back at practice for the Lions, while Ryan Tannehill is a respectable 6-of-15 for 198 yards on deep passes in his last three games. (He was 7-of-26 with three interceptions in his first five games, but if I claimed he was 0-of-6 with five picks you would probably have believed it.)
Great defenses, improving offenses, guys getting healthy and improving upon their weaknesses…why aren't we taking these teams more seriously? Why isn't this game higher on the preview list? Why not speculate that this is a Lions-Dolphins Super Bowl preview? Oh yeah, they are the Lions and Dolphins, and they are almost guaranteed to be torn apart by mismanagement, coaching blunders or internal strife over the next month.
Those searching for Achilles heels should note that the Dolphins rank 31st in the NFL in special teams, the Lions 32nd, according to Football Outsiders. The Lions perfected the art of missing a last-second field goal, but won two weeks ago. Still, that sort of thing only works in Europe, against Mike Smith. Look for this game to hinge on a blocked kick, missed chip shot or long return that will provide evidence that one of these teams has finally changed its ways while the other spirals uncontrollably back to normal.
Prediction: Lions 21, Dolphins 17
Giants at Seahawks
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -10
Here is what a typical Seahawks offensive sequence will look like on Sunday:
• 1st-and-10, Seahawks 20: Screen to Paul Richardson, no gain.
• 2nd-and-10, Seahawks 20: Marshawn Lynch up the middle, four yards.
• 3rd-and-6, Seahawks 24: Russell Wilson 26-yard pass to Luke Willson is bobbled four times off the tight end's hands, knees and facemask. Officials rule it a catch. Tom Coughlin reaches into his sock for a challenge flag but pulls out a pack of Sen-Sen by mistake.
• 1st-and-10, Midfield: Screen to Doug Baldwin for 31 yards. PENALTY: Holding, Jermaine Kearse. Two Giants defenders injured on the play.
• 1st-and-20, Seahawks 40: Robert Turbin up the middle, two yards.
• 2nd-and-18, Seahawks 42: Wilson's 28-yard pass to Cooper Helfet is accidentally swallowed by the tight end, then regurgitated off his fingertips. Coughlin reaches into the heel of his shoe for a spare challenge flag but throws a Dr. StinkySocks Odor Obliterating Insert instead.
• 1st-and-10, Seahawks 30: Wilson rushes the Seahawks to the line before Coughlin finds either his challenge flag or his straight razor. Giants defenders, who (Coughlin is very clear on this) practice hurry-ups after big plays all the time, wander the field in confusion. Wilson hits Baldwin a 30-yard touchdown. Luckily for the Giants, James Carpenter is called for holding.
• 1st-and-20, Seahawks 40: Wilson options around right end for 19 yards. Antrel Rolle blames rest of Giants roster for everything that has gone wrong this year and is immediately signed by the Bears.
• 2nd-and-1, Seahawks 21: Screen to Richardson, no gain. You were expecting an inside run by Lynch? What year do you think this is, 2013?
• 3rd-and-1, Seahawks 21: You know that play where Wilson drops back, no one blocks for him, he runs around in circles, no one gets open, and he ends up getting sacked—the play that the Seahawks always call when they are in field-goal range? That happens here. Two Giants defenders are injured on the play.
• 4th-and-10, Seahawks 30: Steve Hauschka field goal sails beyond left upright but is ruled "good." Coughlin searches wallet for spare challenge flag but only finds some old war bonds, a buffalo nickel, the expired driver's license he uses to get into matinee movies for a buck and a heavily creased photo of Betty Grable.
Game continues in this manned for 60 minutes. Eli Manning blamed.
Prediction: Seahawks 22, Giants 10
Steelers at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers -3.5
In addition to their many other charms, the Jets have a terrible pass defense. That could mean big trouble when facing the cheat code-enhanced version of Ben Roethlisberger.
Roethlisberger is unlikely to throw six more touchdowns on Sunday, as 12 touchdowns in two weeks is already a record. But only three quarterbacks in history have thrown four or more touchdowns in three consecutive games: Dan Marino in 1984 (four games), Peyton Manning in 2004 (five games) and Drew Brees in 2012 (three games).
Marino, Brees and Manning each threw at least three interceptions during their touchdown streaks. Roethlisberger has not thrown an interception in three games. The Jets have intercepted just one pass all year, a statistic as illustrative and mind-boggling as any crimes against football their offense can be charged with. Only nine quarterbacks have thrown three or more touchdowns with no interceptions in three-plus consecutive games: Peyton Manning (three times), Aaron Rodgers (three times), Tom Brady (twice), Brett Favre (twice), Warren Moon, Erik Kramer, Ken O'Brien, Don Meredith and Butch Songin.
Butch Songin? Yes, Butch Songin: the Patriots' first ever starting quarterback, a 36-year old former All-America hockey star at Boston College who was drafted by the Browns, played a little CFL in the mid-1950s and returned to Boston at the dawn of the AFL.
Roethlisberger has the chance to join some illustrious company on Sunday. The Jets are just hoping to turn the Meadowlands into a no-fly zone after fans rented a "Fire John Idzik" airplane banner to buzz Florham Park. Imagine investing the money, time and thought in renting an airplane banner. Imagine all the things you could do: state a political opinion, spread a positive message, wish your wife a happy anniversary or your mom a happy birthday, advertise your business. Instead, you spend time, money and thought to try to coerce one of the worst organizations in sports to fire an employee who has only been on the job for about 21 months because he could not fix a problem four years in the making. Nice work. Next time, oh enterprising Jets fans, perhaps you should think about a charity.
Idzik does have some mistakes on his resume, but fear not! He has a historically proven plan for finding quarterback relief: He has just invested in some scouting tape of the 2003 Frozen Four.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Jets 17
Cowboys vs. Jaguars in London
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Opened at Cowboys -7.5 but is off at press time due to Tony Romo's injury.
Think of the lengths the Cowboys are going to just to avoid having to start Brandon Weeden.
Tony Romo is a 34-year-old with a significant back injury and a history of back injuries. With all respect to DeMarco Murray, he is the franchise centerpiece, with a contract that could cause a minor stock market crash if his career suddenly ends before Jerry Jones invents a new theory of economics to shrink his salary cap hit. The Jaguars are one of the three worst teams in the NFL, and the Cowboys have a bye next week.
In normal circumstances, Romo would receive two weeks of rest while any competent backup dispatched the Jaguars. Instead, he and his vertebrae boarded a 4,700-mile flight, after which he shockingly needed some more therapy and missed practice. After the Jaguars game, he will fly 4,700 miles home before earning that much-needed week off.
Weeden, in other words, is the kind of employ who single-handedly improves workplace attendance because everyone is afraid to leave him alone in the office. It makes you wonder what effect Weeden might have in other backup roles…
Weeden the Substitute Teacher: "You know what, I will just cauterize this wound and get in there to teach some fractions. And jury duty next week? Eh, I'll just serve a contempt of court sentence in the summer."
Weeden the Alternate Juror: "Neither side wants this trial to run too long. Let's say we plea bargain you down to loitering, Ms. Fromme."
Weeden the Vice President of the United States: "Mister President, we don't think it's safe for you to go golfing 75 feet outside Camp David, even with our drones in the air. Yes, sir, it is imperative that two of us maintain visual contact with you while you are in the lavatory; a slip and fall is just too dangerous. Are you eating a marshmallow treat, Mister President? CODE ULTRA VIOLET: Polyunsaturated fats! Dive on that Mallow Cup, sergeant! DIVE ON IT!"
Weeden the Best Man: "Instead of a bachelor party, why don't we just order pizza and watch movies in Ronnie's aunt's basement? Oh, and make sure the real ring is in the church safe."
Weeden, First Mate on a Ship: "Sit back my friends and you'll hear a tale …"
Prediction with Romo: Cowboys 28, Jaguars 17
Prediction without Romo: Cowboys 20, Jaguars 17
Titans at Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens -10.5
The Titans plan to unveil a secret weapon in the second half of the season: anger.
"We need to play with more anger," tight end Delanie Walker told The Tennessean. "Just go out there and be nasty. Baltimore is a nasty team, but we have guys who can be nasty too."
As Walker notes elsewhere in his interview, the Ravens have been acting like Road Warrior characters themselves lately. If the Titans try to match rage with rage, players will be chewing on each other's spleens by halftime.
Receiver Nate Washington suggests a more measured approach. "Just as we have to be ready to fight and put our dukes up, we also have to be ready to sit down and have a chess match," he said. "You can't say you're going to go out there with a fighter's mentality, then go out there and blow assignments. We have to be enthusiastic, but also smart."
The Ravens shuffled their ultra-thin cornerback depth chart this week, cutting veteran Chykie Brown while re-acquiring Danny Gorrer (who started the season with the Lions) and promoting undrafted rookie Tramain Jacobs from the practice squad. The Titans could grab a win just by letting big-armed rookie Zach Mettenberger throw over the top to their deeper-than-you-think receiver corps, but they may be too busy getting in touch with their many, many feelings.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Titans 20
Falcons at Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Falcons -2.5
Midterm election results are in, and journeyman quarterbacks retained their narrow control of both conferences as Josh McCown replaced Mike Glennon as the Tampa delegate.
McCown's victory came just in time to offset the defeat of Ryan Fitzpatrick by Ryan Mallet in Houston. With Mark Sanchez replacing Nick Foles in Philadelphia, the journeymen now have enough delegates to avoid prospect filibusters and override any vetoes by mid-day talk show hosts.
McCown's victory continued a voter trend toward rejecting 2013 prospect nominations, which began when Kyle Orton defeated EJ Manuel and continued through Michael Vick's victory over Geno Smith. The 2013 midterm results spell trouble for 2014 prospect nominees like Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater, who can now expect stiff competition from journeyman challengers on the 2015 ballot.
"Thanks to Josh, we have them whippersnappers right where we want them," said Matt Cassel, adding that a journeyman super-majority no longer depends on a comeback by Matt Schaub, which political and football pundits agree just ain't gonna happen.
In other political news, Georgia State Resolution 31:60:21, which would provide additional benefit of the doubt to Mike Smith for trying to win with such a young defense and so many injuries on the offensive line, failed unanimously.
Prediction: Falcons 31, Buccaneers 20
Broncos at Raiders
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Broncos -11.5
The Raiders are winless, of course, and according to Football Outsiders they face the NFL's toughest upcoming schedule: two Broncos games, two Chiefs games, the 49ers, Chargers at San Diego, Bills and Rams at St. Louis if they are still there by the end of the month (kidding!). Despite the brutal schedule, the Raiders are unlikely to go 0-16, because young players like D.J. Hayden, Justin Ellis and Andre Holmes are starting to develop, and because the Raiders have taken good opponents like the Patriots and Seahawks to the wall in road games.
A Colorado retailer clearly has a little bare-minimum faith in the Raiders, though they are disguising it as a Broncos promotion. Shoppers who purchased an appliance or mattress from Appliance Factory or Mattress Kingdom from Wednesday through Saturday will get that item FREE if the Broncos shut out the Raiders. If you are reading this on Saturday, there is still time to turn top-mount refrigerator shopping and prop betting into one convenient, fun activity!
Best of all, the Terms and Conditions do not stipulate that Raiders employees are ineligible for the free appliances. So a Raiders offensive player whose season is going down the tubes could sneak off to one of Appliance Factory/Mattress Kingdom's 14 locations, purchase an adjustable mattress, give it less than 100 percent in a game the Raiders were going to lose anyway and still get a good night's sleep. It's the perfect blend of point shaving and microwaving!
No NFL player would ever stoop so low, of course. But Dennis Allen has been overheard bragging about his new double-door oven.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 16
Panthers at Eagles
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Eagles -7.5
Mark Sanchez is a bad quarterback. He was a bad quarterback when he threw 20 interceptions as a rookie. He was a bad quarterback when he led six game-winning drives—several of them outlandishly fluky—and beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the 2010 playoffs. He was a bad quarterback when he threw 26 touchdowns in 2011. He was a bad quarterback when he butt fumbled in 2012.
(I am never sure if "butt fumble" should be capitalized, italicized, bold-faced or illuminated with gold-leaf ink by medieval monks, considering its importance to human history.)
Clearly, there are gradients of "bad quarterback," just as there are gradients of "good quarterback" that we refuse to acknowledge when trying to create a category for Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco and Cam Newton besides "Not Brady or Manning, and therefore doggie droppings." Sanchez has always been an interception-prone, low-percentage passer, but he was a much better bad quarterback at his peak than he was as a rookie or during the era of the …
From about January 9, 2009 until about December 11, 2012, Sanchez was a bad quarterback who was good enough to beat you if given some reasonable offensive weaponry, a good line and a great defense. In other words, he was a below-average quarterback, a designation that is hard to make sense of because: A) There is no real definition of "average" for a quarterback, and B) We consider "average" an insult for quarterbacks, anyway. Sanchez may well return to that 2010-11 form now that he is no longer tied to a stake to be pecked apart by crows in the fallow field of Jets football. The Eagles have the weaponry, the defense isn't bad (and the special teams provide a huge boost) and the offensive line is starting to get healthy. The Eagles are hoping Sanchez is a bad quarterback that they can still win with, just as they are starting to wonder if their starter for the last 19 games was the exact same thing.
Cam Newton proved last Thursday that few quarterbacks in history can look good if forced to take an NFL field with a CFL roster. Offensive linemen Byron Bell, Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner are all practicing at various capacities, so Newton should have most of his starting line back by Monday night. The returnees are not exactly the Hogs, but all former Universite de Montreal multi-sport sensation and CFL first-round pick David Foucault could do at left tackle was swing back and forth as Saints defenders raced past him last Thursday.
Newton also has most of his running backs again, making the Panthers as close to a complete team as they can hope to be this season. It may not be enough, but it will be better than 11-versus-1 football, and it can keep a good quarterback from looking like a terrible one.
Prediction: Eagles 31, Panthers 23
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Statistics via Football Outsiders, unless noted.
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