Bowl Projections 2014: Updated Playoff Predictions Before Week 11 Showdowns
LeBron James would be proud.
We have not one, not two, not three, but six Week 11 showdowns between ranked opponents on the college football calendar for Saturday. There is little doubt that the entire College Football Playoff race will look completely different come Sunday.
With that in mind, here is a look at some updated playoff predictions before looking at the Week 11 game to watch.
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Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal Winners)
Criticize the fact that Florida State is winning by closer-than-expected margins all you want, but as long as the Seminoles keep racking up victories, they will be in the playoff field. They will do just that, and an undefeated resume from the defending champions that features wins over Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma State and Louisville will be more than enough to make the postseason.
Alabama will also win out and capture the SEC championship. The Crimson Tide control their own destiny when it comes to the SEC title game now that Ole Miss has two losses, and Nick Saban’s team is just starting to hit its stride.
Mississippi State will have enough substance on its resume to make the playoff field, even with a loss to Alabama, thanks to wins over Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss.
That leaves Michigan State. The Spartans will defend their home field Saturday against Ohio State and win the Big Ten crown. It will be enough to get them into the playoffs when Notre Dame and the remainder of the Big 12 contenders and Pac-12 contenders each lose at least two games.
Game to Watch: Kansas State at TCU
College GameDay may be in East Lansing for a showdown between Ohio State and Michigan State, but there is only one game on the Week 11 schedule that features two teams in the Top Seven of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Kansas State heads to TCU for a critical Big 12 showdown that will also serve as a virtual postseason elimination game.
Whoever falls short Saturday will have two losses, and there are simply too many one-loss teams remaining for a two-loss TCU or Kansas State team to climb back into the field.
ESPN College Football pointed out the remaining schedule for each team, and it is crystal clear why this game is so important for TCU. If the Horned Frogs beat Kansas State, they will easily win out against weak opponents in Texas, Iowa State and Kansas, which could mean a spot in the playoffs.
Whenever a team that scored 82 points in a single game takes the field, the offense against the opposition’s defense will be a matchup to watch.
TCU is second in the nation with 48 points a game, and it is little wonder why. Trevone Boykin is a dual-threat quarterback who is second in the conference with 22 passing touchdowns. He will look to get game-changing wide receivers Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee in space early and deliver with timely deep balls.
Boykin and running back B.J. Catalon also spearhead a ground attack that ranks 33rd in the nation in rushing yards per game.
TCU’s balance has been a problem for every team it has faced this season, but Kansas State brings a fundamentally sound defense to the table. Michael Felder of Bleacher Report recently praised the Wildcats for their approach:
That defense is 12th in the nation in points against at 18.6 a game, and it shut down Oklahoma State’s and Texas Tech’s attacks and contained Auburn’s lethal rushing game. The Tigers scored only 20 points, although it was enough to beat Kansas State.
While much of the focus will be on the showdown between Boykin and the Kansas State defense, something will have to give on the other side of the ball.
TCU leads the nation with 26 forced turnovers, but Kansas State has coughed it up a Big 12-low seven times. What’s more, the Wildcats are the country’s least-penalized team, so it will be difficult for TCU to rely solely on Kansas State’s mistakes Saturday.
Following the narrative, Kansas State’s Jake Waters has not thrown an interception in conference play, which allows him to find the speedy Tyler Lockett for big plays. Lockett is not the only weapon the TCU defense has to worry about, though.
Curry Sexton has made defenses pay for focusing too much on Lockett all year, and he has the speed to be a problem for the TCU secondary.
TCU’s turnover-hungry defense will have the help of the crowd Saturday as it tries to knock off Kansas State following losses to the Wildcats the past two years. Coach Gary Patterson commented on the home-field advantage, per Stats LLC, via ESPN.com.
"I'm a happy camper," he said. "They have to come to our house. Because of our mindset, this will be a different team than they have played the last two years. Both of us can play ground and pound or play action. It's a different animal."
Even with a raucous crowd, Kansas State is the exact type of disciplined football team that will be a problem for TCU.
The Horned Frogs rely on turnovers to make defensive stops, but that will not be the case Saturday. Kansas State’s defense is also the toughest TCU will face all season, and the Horned Frogs’ dynamic offense won’t make as many plays as it is accustomed to, which could force it to tighten up as the game progresses.
TCU will have the home crowd on its side, but the Wildcats have thrived in those situations before and have won four of their last five road games against Top 25 opponents. One of those games came at Oklahoma earlier this year.
Kansas State will silence yet another home crowd Saturday.
Prediction: Kansas State 34, TCU 31
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