College Football Playoff Standings: Week 11 Rankings and Bowl Projections
November is here, and in about a month, the College Football Playoff selection committee will choose its four-team field. For everyone else who's eligible, it's bowl season.
Trying to predict bowl games is a science no one can truly master, but it's fun to give it the ol' college try anyway. Predictions are based partially on what teams have done so far but also a projection of how they'll finish. Additionally, bowl pecking order isn't necessarily representative of where teams will finish in their respective conferences—just the order in which they're selected.
Here's how the two major Top 25 polls looked after Week 10. The following slides contain bowl projections heading into Week 11. Click on the following links to view the latest College Football Playoff, Associated Press and USA Today Top 25 polls.
New Orleans Bowl
1 of 39
Dec. 20, New Orleans: Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Cal (Pac-12) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)
Louisiana-Lafayette had a brutal nonconference schedule, but it hasn't lost a Sun Belt game yet. Whenever possible, the New Orleans Bowl loves having the Ragin' Cajuns.
Cal slips into one of the final bowl slots. A shootout ensues, with the Bears, behind quarterback Jared Goff, getting the edge.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Projected Winner: Cal
New Mexico Bowl
2 of 39
Dec. 20, Albuquerque, New Mexico: Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: San Diego State (Mountain West) vs. Western Kentucky (C-USA)
Western Kentucky passes its way to three more wins, just enough to go bowling. However, quarterback Brandon Doughty and the Hilltoppers offense meet San Diego State's shutdown defense.
Western Kentucky is also statistically one of the worst defenses in college football, giving up 43 points a game.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: San Diego State
Las Vegas Bowl
3 of 39
Dec. 20, Las Vegas: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Stanford (Pac-12) vs. Colorado State (Mountain West)
Colorado State has a case as the best group-of-five team in college football. Unless the Rams win the Mountain West, however, it could be tough to get into one of the six major bowls.
Garrett Grayson is one of the best quarterbacks that no one talks about, and Alabama transfer Dee Hart has been a solid addition in the run game. However, Stanford's defense is one of the stingiest in college football. Unless the Cardinal play Oregon.
Colorado State is good, but not Oregon good.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Stanford
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
4 of 39
Dec. 20, Boise, Idaho: MAC vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Akron (MAC) vs. Air Force (Mountain West)
This is an interesting clash of offensive styles between Akron, a team that enjoys airing it out, and Air Force, a team that runs the ball as well as any in college football.
The Falcons have an especially hard time stopping the pass, however, whereas Akron gives up less than four yards per rush. Give me the passing attack of the Zips.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Akron
Camellia Bowl
5 of 39
Dec. 20, Montgomery, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Central Michigan (MAC) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
We'll give Arkansas State a change of scenery from the GoDaddy Bowl, which it's been to three straight years. The Red Wolves have one of the more explosive running backs in college football, Michael Gordon, who averages 8.6 yards per carry. However, the offense runs through quarterback Fredi Knighten.
Combined, Arkansas State does enough offensively to keep this one comfortable.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Arkansas State
Miami Beach Bowl
6 of 39
Dec. 22, Miami: BYU vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: BYU (independent) vs. Cincinnati (AAC)
BYU hasn't been the same since losing quarterback Taysom Hill for the year to a broken leg. Still, Hill's absence doesn't excuse the fact that the Cougars have had a hard time stopping anyone not named Middle Tennessee.
The bad news here is that Cincinnati has an explosive offense...but it also doesn't play great defense. Expect this game to have a lot of points and momentum swings, with the Bearcats getting the edge in the end.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Cincinnati
Boca Raton Bowl
7 of 39
Dec. 23, Boca Raton, Florida: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: UAB (C-USA) vs. Ohio (MAC)
How's this for a yards-per-reception stat? UAB wide receiver Jamarcus Nelson has just 26 receptions on the year, but he averages 22 yards every time he catches the ball.
Is that good enough for UAB to pull off the win? Sure, why not.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: UAB
Poinsettia Bowl
8 of 39
Dec. 23, San Diego: Navy vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: Navy (independent) vs. Nevada (Mountain West)
Without a ton of passing, this bowl could actually feature a lot of offense and points thanks to each team's running game. Additionally, both defenses struggle in that category, giving up more than 4.5 yards per rush.
Wolf Pack quarterback Cody Fajardo is the difference-maker running and throwing, and he makes enough plays to win.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Nevada
Bahamas Bowl
9 of 39
Dec. 24, Nassau, Bahamas: Conference USA vs. MAC
Predicted Matchup: Marshall (C-USA) vs. Toledo (MAC)
As you can see, even the possibility of an undefeated Marshall isn't going to get any love from the playoff selection committee. As a result, the Herd aren't in a major bowl. That's a shame given everything they've accomplished, but the committee is apparently putting all its eggs in the strength-of-schedule basket.
There's a lot of offense in this game, but Rakeem Cato and Co. have the defense to make enough stops to win.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Marshall
Hawai'i Bowl
10 of 39
Dec. 24, Honolulu: Conference USA vs. Mountain West
Predicted Matchup: UTEP (C-USA) vs. Utah State (Mountain West)
For the second year in a row, Utah State has thrived without star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, which says a lot about head coach Matt Wells and the Aggies coaching staff.
Once again, Utah State has a stout defense, allowing just 21 points per game, which is more than good enough to stop UTEP's one-dimensional running attack.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Utah State
Heart of Dallas Bowl
11 of 39
Dec. 26, Dallas: Big Ten vs. Conference USA
Predicted Matchup: Penn State (Big Ten) vs. Rice (C-USA)
Rice has won five games in a row after getting off to an 0-3 start, and the schedule is manageable enough down the road to get at least one more win. However, the Owls don't have a particularly potent offense, and the Nittany Lions have one of the better defenses in the country, ranking in the top 10 nationally in points allowed (17.8).
Behind the arm of quarterback Christian Hackenberg, Penn State is able to muster enough big plays to put this one away early.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Penn State
Quick Lane Bowl
12 of 39
Dec. 26, Detroit: Big Ten vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Iowa (Big Ten) vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
Dare we say that Iowa has actually been an offensive juggernaut lately? The Hawkeyes have scored at least 40 points in two of their last three games, albeit against Indiana and Northwestern.
Western Michigan has been a great turnaround story from its 1-11 season in 2013, but it will have a hard time stopping the Hawkeyes ground attack, led by Mark Weisman.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl
13 of 39
Dec. 26, St. Petersburg, Florida: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Central Florida (AAC) vs. Middle Tennessee (C-USA)
Before a stunning loss to UConn, UCF was on a five-game winning streak. Peeking ahead at the remaining schedule, the Knights should have plenty more wins before the season ends.
Don't bank on UCF quarterback Justin Holman throwing four picks again like he did against the Huskies, who seem to bring out the absolute worst in everyone. UCF rides Holman past Middle Tennessee with relative ease.
Matchup Type: Never in doubt
Predicted Winner: UCF
Military Bowl
14 of 39
Dec. 27, Annapolis, Maryland: American Athletic vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Temple (AAC) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC)
Virginia Tech should have the best player on the field in cornerback Kendall Fuller. He'll shut down any attempt by Temple to get the passing game going, so it's going to be up to the Owls running game to get things done.
The Owls are a great turnaround story, but they probably don't have enough offense to win. Texas Tech transfer quarterback Michael Brewer makes a few key throws to pull off the win.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Virginia Tech
Sun Bowl
15 of 39
Dec. 27, El Paso, Texas: ACC vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Pitt (ACC) vs. Utah (Pac-12)
The Panthers have a bruising running back in James Conner, but the Utes have one of the best rushing defenses in the Pac-12 and thrive in lower-scoring games. Pitt has the edge in the passing game with wideout Tyler Boyd, but Utah is better overall in the trenches and is probably a consistent quarterback away from being even better than 6-2 right now.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Utah
Independence Bowl
16 of 39
Dec. 27, Shreveport, Louisiana: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: North Carolina State (ACC) vs. Louisiana Tech (C-USA)
As Zach Barnett of College Football Talk points out, Louisiana Tech is the best turnaround in college football that no one is talking about. North Carolina State got off to a 4-0 start, but then it hit a four-game slide that it only recently broke with a win over Syracuse.
Wolfpack quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a stud and would be the best player on the field. That gives North Carolina State just enough to avoid an upset in a closer-than-expected game.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: North Carolina State
Pinstripe Bowl
17 of 39
Dec. 27, Bronx, New York: ACC vs. Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Boston College (ACC) vs. Maryland (Big Ten)
A former ACC conference game matches one of the best rushing teams in the country, Boston College, against a team that struggles to stop the run.
The Terps have a pair of good wide receivers in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, but getting them the ball has been a struggle at times. Boston College's pass defense is average enough that Long could get loose for a couple big gains, but it probably won't be enough. Boston College controls this game, even if it's not a blowout.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Boston College
Holiday Bowl
18 of 39
Dec. 27, San Diego: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Nebraska (Big Ten) vs. USC (Pac-12)
Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah is the star of the show. As the game wears on, Abdullah will only get better against USC's already thin depth. It's not like the Trojans have done a good job closing out games this year either.
USC wide receiver Nelson Agholor will get loose a few times, but he can't carry the team by himself. Huskers defensive end Randy Gregory will cause chaos in the Trojans backfield.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Nebraska
Liberty Bowl
19 of 39
Dec. 29, Memphis, Tennessee: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: West Virginia (Big 12) vs. South Carolina (SEC)
The Mountaineers have to figure out a way to get the passing offense going again with wide receiver Kevin White, who has been quiet the past two weeks, while keeping turnovers to a minimum (West Virginia is one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin).
If South Carolina can get Mike Davis going in the running game, it can take advantage of West Virginia's aggressive defense. Still, the Gamecocks have been known to blow leads this year and haven't played consistently.
Matchup Type: Sloppy
Predicted Winner: West Virginia
Russell Athletic Bowl
20 of 39
Dec. 29, Orlando, Florida: Big 12 vs. ACC
Predicted Matchup: Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Clemson (ACC)
By the time bowl season comes around, Clemson freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson should be back from his hand injury and have been 100 percent for some time. That's a good thing, because the Tigers offense looks like a completely different unit when he's under center.
Both defenses are solid up front and have strong pass-rushers, but both quarterbacks—Watson and Oklahoma's Trevor Knight—are threats to scramble and pick up yards with their legs. In this game, Knight's experience gives him a slight edge over Watson in a high-scoring thriller.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Texas Bowl
21 of 39
Dec. 29, Houston: Big 12 vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Oklahoma State (Big 12) vs. Texas A&M (SEC)
This would be a bowl between two teams that started out hot but have since cooled in the past month or so. You'd expect this to be a shootout, but both offenses have struggled more than you'd expect lately. With J.W. Walsh out with a foot injury, Daxx Garman hasn't been able to give the Pokes a threat in the running game at quarterback.
Both teams have big-play weapons in Tyreek Hill for Oklahoma State and Speedy Noil for Texas A&M, but Noil has shown up big at times (36 receptions, 461 yards, four touchdowns) and looks mature beyond his years. He ends up being the difference-maker in a sloppy game that comes down to the wire.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Texas A&M
Music City Bowl
22 of 39
Dec. 30, Nashville, Tennessee: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: Florida (SEC) vs. Georgia Tech (ACC)
A win over Georgia is a huge boost for Florida's efforts to get back to the postseason. Stopping Georgia Tech's triple option can be tough, but the Gators have the athleticism and, given the time to prepare, discipline to do it. With a steady dose of the ground game, Florida grinds out a victory.
And head coach Will Muschamp survives the season.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Florida
Belk Bowl
23 of 39
Dec. 30, Charlotte, North Carolina: ACC vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Louisville (ACC) vs. Missouri (SEC)
It's entirely possible that the SEC East champion could be playing in the Belk Bowl. That's nothing against the Belk Bowl, but it does show how jumbled the East really is.
The Cardinals are transitioning from the Charlie Strong defense-first mentality to Bobby Petrino's more aggressive offensive attack. It's come with some mixed results, but the return of DeVante Parker at wide receiver provides a boost.
The defense still has Strong's stamp on it and forces Tigers quarterback Maty Mauk into more crucial mistakes.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Louisville
San Francisco Bowl
24 of 39
Dec. 30, Santa Clara, California: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Minnesota (Big Ten) vs. Arizona (Pac-12)
An Arizona-Minnesota bowl game would match the best running back no one talks about, the Gophers' David Cobb, up against one of the best freshman players in the country, Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon.
Though Rich Rodriguez's offenses have always been known for the run, the Wildcats rank No. 10 in the country in passing yards. However, the Gophers are one of the best teams against the pass. Still, Solomon can run, and the Wildcats are deep enough to modify their offense.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Arizona
Peach Bowl
25 of 39
Dec. 31, Atlanta: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: Auburn (SEC) vs. Michigan State (Big Ten)
This would have the potential to be the most intriguing matchup of any of the major non-playoff bowls.
The narrative would be offense (Auburn) vs. defense (Michigan State), but the Spartans rank fifth in the country with 45.5 points per game, almost a full touchdown more than the Tigers.
This very much could be a shootout in which the last team with the ball wins. Both offenses have premier quarterbacks—Nick Marshall and Connor Cook, respectively—who bring different things to the table. Cameron Artis-Payne and Jeremy Langford are both every-down backs, and Sammie Coates and Tony Lippett are two downfield threats at receiver.
The point being, there would be an excellent quarterback/running back/wide receiver combo on the field on every drive. That's tough to stop.
Ultimately, the Spartans' ability to force turnovers is the difference-maker.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl
26 of 39
Dec. 31, Glendale, Arizona: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: Arizona State (Pac-12) vs. Boise State (Mountain West)
Arizona State doesn't make the playoff, but it does win the Pac-12 South and gets to stay in the same vicinity for its postseason game. Boise State holds the tiebreaker over Colorado State and, despite two losses, ultimately gets the group-of-five spot.
Both offenses are more than capable of moving the ball through the air, ranking in the top 25 in passing yards, but have underappreciated running games to complement.
Other than one bad game against UCLA, Arizona State's new-look defense has actually played well. It doesn't have to play at Ole Miss' level—the Rebels beat the Broncos 35-13 to open the season—but provided it plays well enough, the Sun Devils offense can take care of the rest.
Matchup Type: Never close
Predicted Winner: Arizona State
Orange Bowl
27 of 39
Dec. 31, Miami: ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Predicted Matchup: Duke (ACC) vs. Mississippi State (SEC)
Duke is able to get an Orange Bowl tie-in because, well, chances are the Blue Devils won't lose another game until the ACC championship. That's not to take away anything from Duke and head coach David Cutcliffe, who could have a double-digit-win season.
If they meet Mississippi State, though, things could get ugly. The Bulldogs control the line of scrimmage well and have a balanced offensive attack. In Duke's only loss of the season to Miami, the Blue Devils gave up five yards a rush. Now imagine trying to stop Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Josh Robinson.
That's a beastly combination.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Mississippi State
Outback Bowl
28 of 39
Jan. 1, Tampa, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. Ole Miss (SEC)
The key matchup, as is the case with any team playing Wisconsin, is how Ole Miss' defense handles Badgers running back Melvin Gordon. Through eight games, Gordon is averaging 7.5 yards per carry. The Rebels defense has been banged up lately, losing linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche for the year to an ankle injury.
Wisconsin doesn't do much else well besides run the ball, so provided Ole Miss can stop Gordon—or at least keep him in check—the game should be close. Then it's up to Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace to play mistake-free football.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
Cotton Bowl
29 of 39
Jan. 1, Arlington, Texas: TBD vs. TBD
Predicted Matchup: Kansas State (Big 12) vs. Notre Dame (independent)
Kansas State falls just short of the Big 12 championship, but it still gets an at-large berth against Notre Dame.
The Irish offense is capable of scoring plenty of points, and the quarterback-wide receiver combination of Everett Golson and Corey Robinson can be lethal. However, K-State does as good a job as any team in the country, even in losses, at dictating the tempo of the game and line of scrimmage.
K-State doesn't show a lot of complexity, but it doesn't shoot itself in the foot with penalties and tackles well on defense. That says a lot about Bill Snyder as a head coach, and it's the difference a tight game.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Kansas State
Citrus Bowl
30 of 39
Jan. 1, Orlando, Florida: Big Ten vs. SEC
Predicted Matchup: Ohio State (Big Ten) vs. Georgia (SEC)
Ohio State appears to have turned a corner on offense since the early-season loss to Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes offensive line has been shored up, and the combination of J.T. Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott could rack up big plays against the Bulldogs defense.
While Georgia will have stud running back Todd Gurley, the Bulldogs must go up against one of the best defensive lines in the country. Gurley will get his carries and his numbers, but Ohio State wins this one if it can get to quarterback Hutson Mason.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Rose Bowl
31 of 39
Jan. 1, Pasadena, California: CFP No. 2 vs. CFP No. 3
Predicted Matchup: Alabama (SEC) vs. Oregon (Pac-12)
What Mississippi State has done this year is incredible. However, the Bulldogs have two crucial games on the road in November: at Alabama and at Ole Miss. The prediction here is that they lose the former to give the Tide the tiebreaker.
Alabama is more explosive on offense than it has traditionally been under head coach Nick Saban. Coupled with Oregon's so-so pass defense, quarterback Blake Sims and wide receiver Amari Cooper will do some damage. The question will be whether Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota has time to throw and how big the windows are he'll be throwing into.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Sugar Bowl
32 of 39
Jan. 1, New Orleans: CFP No. 1 vs. CFP No. 4
Predicted Matchup: Florida State (ACC) vs. TCU (Big 12)
Florida State finishes undefeated in the regular season and wins the ACC for the second year in a row, while TCU remains atop the Big 12 and slides into the final playoff spot.
Both offenses are capable of scoring plenty of points, but the intriguing matchup would be TCU's defensive line versus a Seminoles offensive front that has struggled to run the ball consistently. Florida State's defense matches up well athletically with TCU's skill players, but the Frogs wide receivers make enough plays to keep it interesting.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Florida State
Armed Forces Bowl
33 of 39
Jan. 2, Fort Worth, Texas: American Athletic vs. Army
Predicted Matchup: Houston (AAC) vs. Rutgers (Big Ten)
The Cougars have the weapons to be a potent offense, but they haven't been able to put up the numbers to match. However, Houston has the fifth-best scoring defense in the country, allowing 16 points per game. Part of that may be the competition, but the Cougars defense has nevertheless picked off 15 passes this year.
Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova, on the other hand, has 10 picks on the year (backup Chris Laviano hasn't been much better). In a sloppy game, the Cougars force Rutgers into some costly mistakes.
Matchup Type: Blowout
Predicted Winner: Houston
TaxSlayer Bowl
34 of 39
Jan. 2, Jacksonville, Florida: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
Predicted Matchup: LSU (SEC) vs. Miami (ACC)
Miami's mix of running back Duke Johnson and quarterback Brad Kaaya provides a potent, balanced attack capable of scoring points on LSU's defense. As the season has progressed, Kaaya, a freshman, has improved dramatically, and now the offense seems to be clicking at a high level.
The Tigers don't have the same level of quarterback play, but their bruising running is enough to wear down any defense over the course of the game. If it's close, take Les Miles' team every time.
Matchup Type: Low-scoring
Predicted Winner: LSU
Alamo Bowl
35 of 39
Jan. 2, San Antonio: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: Baylor (Big 12) vs. UCLA (Pac-12)
Baylor holds the head-to-head tiebreaker vs. TCU, but a tough final stretch that features a road game against Oklahoma and a home finale against Kansas State results in a loss somewhere. That puts the Bears in the Alamo Bowl against UCLA in a rematch of the Holiday Bowl a couple of years back.
Both offenses are capable of scoring a lot of points, but both teams also rank among the worst in the country in penalties per game. Expect a lot of defensive pass interference calls while the Bears' athletic defensive line does just enough to pressure quarterback Brett Hundley and be the difference-maker.
Matchup Type: Shootout
Predicted Winner: Baylor
Cactus Bowl
36 of 39
Jan. 2, Tempe, Arizona: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Predicted Matchup: East Carolina (AAC) vs. Washington (Pac-12)
A second loss on the season to Temple knocks East Carolina out of the major bowl conversation, so the Pirates head out west to take on Washington instead.
East Carolina has a quality quarterback (Shane Carden) and enough skill players to move the ball, but Washington's defensive front seven is as good as any in college football. The question will be whether the Huskies have enough offense to break away.
Shaq Thompson is a two-way star at linebacker and running back, though, and he's the MVP here.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: Washington
Birmingham Bowl
37 of 39
Jan. 3, Birmingham, Alabama: SEC vs. American Athletic
Predicted Matchup: Tennessee (SEC) vs. Memphis (AAC)
Memphis is one win away from getting back to a bowl game for the first time since 2008. That's a credit to head coach Justin Fuente, who has turned around a once-abysmal program.
Normally, Memphis getting into Tennessee's backfield would be a good sign; the Vols have had protection issues up front all season. However, with new quarterback Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee is better equipped to handle pressure. There's just enough talent at the skill positions to be too much for Memphis to handle for 60 minutes.
Matchup Type: Close, but never in doubt
Predicted Winner: Tennessee
GoDaddy Bowl
38 of 39
Jan. 4, Mobile, Alabama: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Predicted Matchup: Bowling Green (MAC) vs. South Alabama (Sun Belt)
Dino Babers' first year as the head coach at Bowling Green could have gone south with the season-ending injury to quarterback Matt Johnson, but James Knapke has filled in admirably.
The Falcons would be an interesting matchup against the defensive-minded South Alabama Jaguars, who give up just under 21 points a game. Something would have to give, and if Bowling Green can't make a stop—the Falcons rank 103rd in the nation in points allowed—then its 33 points per game may not matter.
Matchup Type: Nail-biter
Predicted Winner: South Alabama
College Football Playoff Championship
39 of 39
Jan. 12, Arlington, Texas: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Predicted Matchup: Alabama (SEC) vs. Florida State (ACC)
What's been amazing, and frustrating, about Florida State is that it hasn't put together a clean 60 minutes of football. At some point, you have to wonder whether that will catch up to the Seminoles. But when Florida State is on? Boy, is it on.
All the same, Florida State hasn't lost a game in nearly two years. That's impressive.
"[Winning] is so much harder than we make it seem to be out there," head coach Jimbo Fisher told Jared Shanker of ESPN.com. "If it wasn't, guys would be undefeated all the time. ... Why do you think I'm nervous every week? A college kid—think of all the things that went through your head at that age. It's a challenge every week to control their minds to bring them to focus, to understand how to be consistent."
Similar to TCU, Florida State can match up well enough with Tide wide receiver Amari Cooper, but he's going to make plays as long as he's healthy. Both run defenses are athletic and stout, but the edge here goes to the Tide, in both the ability to run and stop it.
Matchup Type: Comeback that falls short
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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