Ranking the 10 Most Lethal Scorers in the NBA Today
Putting the ball in the basket is as glamorous as it gets for an NBA player, but it's not always easy to identify the league's best scorers.
The two most commonly used statistics—points per game and field-goal percentage—are quite misleading, after all. While the former doesn't take efficiency into account and can erroneously reward volume shooters, the latter is far too simplified. It doesn't factor in work from behind the arc or shooting from the free-throw line. Neither stat allows for differentiation between shot creators and those who are dependent on other players for their scoring.
Fortunately, scorer rating does all of that and more. Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta and I introduced it during the offseason, and now it's time to factor in some of the 2014-15 season's early results.
In order to place the league's best scorers, scorer rating from the 2013-14 campaign matters, as do the returns from this year's opening salvo. Context comes into the equation as well, allowing for some subjectivity, which is necessary given the oft-misguiding nature of small sample sizes.
Don't make the mistake of allowing the points leaderboard to be your sole basis for determining the league's most lethal scorers.
10. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 7.88 (No. 13)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 6.34 (No. 41)
At this point, DeMarcus Cousins' blend of size, physical prowess and skill is undeniably lethal. He's a matchup nightmare for any big man in the league, as he can knock down occasional mid-range jumpers, overpower them in the post, go to work off the dribble and get to the charity stripe at will.
It's the free-throw shooting that has been so huge for the man fondly known as "Boogie" during the early returns of the 2014-15 season.
During a blowout loss against the Golden State Warriors to open his campaign, Cousins worked his way to the line 18 times, connecting on 12 of the attempts. Even after playing only 25 minutes against the Denver Nuggets in his fourth game of the year (he still took nine free-throw attempts), the Kentucky product is averaging 9.5 trips per game and connecting at a 73.7 percent clip.
His free-throw rate is up to a career-best 0.576, per Basketball-Reference.com, and it wouldn't be remotely shocking for the 24-year-old center to keep that up throughout the year. As his jumper continues getting stronger, Cousins should only build upon last season's performance, even if a slight decrease in playing time has prevented him from matching it during the opening portion of the 2014-15 campaign.
Honorable Mentions: LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, John Wall
9. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 3.79 (No. 97)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 11.23 (No. 1)
Talk about a transformation.
If you consider a player's rank in points per game to be how he's generally perceived by the public (which seems fair, given the omnipresent nature of that simplistic stat), then you can determine how overrated he was by looking at the difference between where he ranked in points per game and how he stacked up in scorer rating.
Klay Thompson, by that measure at least, was the league's most overrated scorer in 2013-14, with a 68-spot difference in the two ranks. Andrea Bargnani (54-spot difference), Bradley Beal (58), Wilson Chandler (50), J.J. Redick (62) and Josh Smith (61) were the only other players on the wrong side of 50.
But this year, that's no longer the case. Thompson has shown off a crucial new element to his game—creating shots off the bounce. He's not entirely dependent on receiving on-target feeds from his teammates but is instead hitting pull-up jumpers and driving into the paint, as he did for one thunderous dunk against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, 62.2 percent of Thompson's two-point field goals were assisted last year, and 94.6 percent of his triples required the help of a teammate. This season, which is admittedly still in its infancy, those numbers have fallen to 52.6 and 80, respectively.
That's a huge change, and maintaining his shot-creating growth will be the best way for Thompson to justify that enormous new contract he recently inked.
8. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: Didn't qualify
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 8.55 (No. 15)
Why, you might ask, is Kobe Bryant ranked all the way up in the No. 8 spot if he didn't qualify for placement last season by virtue of playing only six games? Why is that the case if he has been only the No. 15 scorer during the first week of the NBA season?
Reputation and context.
We all know how good Bryant is at putting the ball in the basket, and he's shown no signs of slowing down after returning from the two major injuries he dealt with during the 2013-14 campaign. The 2-guard has knocked down acrobatic shots around the basket, made those patented mid-range shots when he's falling away with a hand in his face and generally looked no worse for the wear.
He might slow down as the season progresses, but there's been no sign of a decline thus far. His 41.2 field-goal percentage through the Los Angeles Lakers' first quartet of games would be the worst mark of his career, but he's getting to the charity stripe with incredible frequency and creating a ridiculous amount of his own looks.
Only 22.6 percent of his two-pointers have required assists, and that would beat the previous career-low mark of 24.7 percent by a significant margin. That number, by the way, was posted all the way back in 2004-05.
And that's where the context comes in.
From a purely statistical standpoint, Bryant doesn't deserve to rank this high. But given the inordinate amount of defensive attention the dearth of quality options on the Lakers roster forces him to endure nightly, he gets the bump. There's a solid chance he only moves up as the season progresses and he makes us forget he was ever hurt.
7. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 7.25 (No. 17)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 8.39 (No. 18)
Consistency, consistency, consistency.
Dirk Nowitzki is not subject to the laws of old age that govern the lives of mere mortals, operating instead in a timeless dimension, one that allows him to continue draining jumpers from all over the court.
New teammates? Doesn't matter. Another year under his belt? Why is that relevant? So many options that he doesn't even need to score 20 points per game? That's silly to worry about.
"I'm not expecting anybody on our team to be a 20-point scorer," Dallas owner Mark Cuban explained at a news conference, via Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News. "Not Dirk. I don't want him to be a 20-point scorer. Seriously. Monta [Ellis] has that capability. Chandler [Parsons] has that capability. Dirk has that capability. Richard Jefferson's got that capability. Jameer [Nelson could score] 15. Raymond [Felton] could do 15, if that was the focus, but that's not our focus."
Except Nowitzki and his one-legged jumper have other plans.
The 36-year-old has spent less time on the court and been less involved than in years past, so he's just upped his efficiency. Through four games, Nowitzki has shot a scorching 57.9 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from beyond the arc.
However, he's been uncharacteristically off from the free-throw line, connecting on just 78.6 percent of his freebies. If he's going to be used less throughout the season, it's not entirely inconceivable to see him maintaining his shooting numbers and regressing back to his career mean of 87.8 percent from the line.
6. Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 8.73 (No. 7)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 8.64 (No. 14)
It's hard to find a more dominant scorer who lags so far behind in terms of popular perception. The other nine names populating these rankings all belong to widely known players who can be called superstars (unless your definition of the term is pretty stringent), and each of them makes quite a bit of money.
Not Thomas.
He's by no means a household name, and the contract he signed with the Phoenix Suns—four years, $28 million—doesn't exactly stack up with those of the players surrounding him in this countdown. But it doesn't matter. Just as he toiled away in relative obscurity with the Sacramento Kings, Thomas has enjoyed fine returns during his first handful of games with the Phoenix Suns.
Despite playing just under 24 minutes per contest in his first three outings, the diminutive point guard is averaging 18.7 points and shooting 56.4 percent from the field. He's picking his spots better than ever, and he's still creating shots for himself without any trouble.
Thomas' percentages will likely drop as the year progresses, but he should become more effective at the free-throw stripe and spend a bit more time on the court, both of which will aid his productivity as a scorer. He may be tiny, but he doesn't need height to create points in bunches.
Sleep on Thomas' offense at your own peril. Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe are better overall players in the desert, but it's the former King who has gone from Mr. Irrelevant to being the most lethal scorer on one of the most dynamic offenses in the Association.
5. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 8.5 (No. 8)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 10.36 (No. 5)
Kyrie Irving is loving the attention that LeBron James and Kevin Love both draw from an opposing defense. We saw it during preseason action, when the young point guard was more efficient than ever before, and the same has remained true now that the games have begun to matter, though it isn't readily apparent from his surface numbers.
The former Duke Blue Devil scored 45 points during his first two games alongside the four-time MVP and dominant stretch 4, and he did so largely without relying on the feeds of his teammates. By scoring 10.5 unassisted points per game, Irving trails only Stephen Curry, John Wall, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joe Johnson in that category.
Of course, it also helps that he's put up some assisted buckets as well, and he's done all of this by playing on a Cleveland Cavaliers squad that has liked to slow it down during the early going. Through their first two games, the Cavs have used just 89.3 possessions per 48 minutes, which gives them the No. 29 pace in the Association.
Scoring over 20 points per game on a quick team is impressive. Doing so when the squad slows everything down and maximizes the value of each possession is even better.
4. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 10.48 (No. 4)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 8.72 (No. 13)
Eventually, Derek Fisher's triangle offense should get the New York Knicks humming and putting up points in bunches. When that happens, there's no telling what will happen to Carmelo Anthony's scoring, as he'll finally get more help from his teammates.
But while the Knicks are still adjusting, Anthony is leaving no doubt that he can score well over 20 points per game while playing in a system that requires more passing.
Through three games, the 2012-13 scoring champion is knocking down half of his attempts from both the field in general and beyond the three-point arc, and he's also connected on 71.4 percent of his shots from the foul stripe. He's probably not going to become the first player in the 50/50/70 club, but there's no doubt he can come close to maintaining this type of scorching start.
After all, Anthony is finally allowing his teammates to feed him the ball and scoring within the flow of the offense. He's been assisted on 42.9 percent of his makes thus far, which is his highest mark since the 2007-08 season with the Denver Nuggets, back when he wasn't the type of player he is today.
It's going to be tougher for Anthony to stand out as a lethal scorer this season, but only statistically. Much like the San Antonio Spurs' system tends to devalue the scorer ratings of its players, due to the ball-sharing ways, the Knicks' new-found triangulating strategies might have the same effect on this particular superstar.
At least he'll always have those ridiculously difficult mid-range shots and fearless daggers on his resume. His status as an elite scorer really just can't be questioned.
After all, it's not particularly easy to top 20,000 points in your career.
3. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 12.55 (No. 2)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 8.97 (No. 12)
How good is LeBron James? Well, it took him only one game to right the ship after a horrific start to his second tenure with the Cleveland Cavaliers, as he's produced the No. 12 scorer rating in the NBA through his first pair of outings.
James simply does it all as a scorer, and that's exactly what makes him so special.
Over the last few years, the four-time MVP has continued honing both his post game and his jump-shooting abilities. He's no longer content to rely on his physical drives to the basket but has instead added new elements that make it even harder to shut him down.
Nonetheless, he doesn't tend to rely on setup passes to get his scoring done, instead creating plenty of looks for himself. During his final season with the Miami Heat, he needed assists on 39.5 percent of his made buckets from inside the arc. This year should produce a comparable number, even in David Blatt's modified Princeton offense.
James' scorer rating will continue to climb throughout the year as he proves his opening night against the New York Knicks was an aberration, not a sign of things to come.
2. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 10.89 (No. 3)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 9.18 (No. 10)
Stephen Curry just continues to do things no studly shooter should be able to do.
During the 2013-14 campaign, Curry continued tracking toward a future status as the greatest three-point sniper of all time, and he did so while creating 54.4 percent of his looks from beyond the arc for himself. No one does that.
Seriously. No one.
Most of NBA history's great downtown shooters have required passes before lofting up attempts, but Curry routinely sets up himself. The percentage of shots that have been assisted are only tracked from 2000 and beyond, but how's this for a comparison? Since that time, Ray Allen has never created even 25 percent of his own looks from deep.
This season, it's looking like more of the same for the baby-faced assassin.
Three of his first six triples were assisted, and he's averaged a career-best 25.3 points per game during his opening trio of outings with the Golden State Warriors. Shooting 96 percent on 8.3 free-throw attempts per contest tends to help the scoring stats quite a bit.
Even with his stroke from beyond the arc struggling, Curry's early returns have led to a top-10 scorer rating. He'll be right near the top of the pack when he begins connecting with more frequency.
And he will.
1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
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2013-14 Scorer Rating: 10.12 (No. 5)
2014-15 First-Week Scorer Rating: 10.71 (No. 3)
James Harden is going to live and die at the free-throw line. And more often than not, he'll be living.
"In order to grasp just how profound an impact Harden's free-throw attempts have had on his output, consider this factoid: Through four games, Harden is shooting just 37.3 percent from the field and is still generating 117.5 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com," Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan wrote during a fantastic breakdown of Harden's special start to the season.
Let's look at a few more numbers.
Despite shooting only 37.3 percent from the field through his first four games of the Houston Rockets' 2014-15 campaign, Harden has an impressive 61.2 true shooting percentage. How good is that? Well, consider that the mark would've placed No. 6 among all qualified players in 2013-14, just behind the 61.8 true shooting percentage posted by, you guessed it, Harden.
The bearded 2-guard is taking 14.1 free throws per 36 minutes. His free-throw rate is a mind-boggling 0.806, which looks crazy when compared to his 0.552 last season. Thanks to his exploits at the charity stripe, Harden is providing fantastic proof that free-throw percentage can often be a meaningless stat.
Until Kevin Durant returns and regains his pre-injury form, it's Harden who stands out as the Association's premier scoring threat.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com. All players who are out for prolonged stretches (Kevin Durant, for example) are not considered for these rankings.
