The Good, Bad and Ugly from Oklahoma City Thunder's Early Season
Decimated by injuries, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been forced to reassess the title hopes they carried when they started the new NBA season. Now, their focus is ensuring they stay afloat without Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and don’t slip out of the playoff picture. Though there has been plenty to complain about, there have also been some bright spots amid all the struggles.
The season has just started, but there are a few early observations to take away from the Thunder’s rocky start. From the arrival of Perry Jones to the alarming state of the injury report, we’ll recap the good, the bad and the downright ugly from OKC’s first slate of games.
The Good
The Emergence of Perry Jones III
Despite coming out of high school as one of the most sought-after recruits in the nation, Perry Jones’ play at Baylor didn’t match the hype. It seemed like his ceiling as an NBA player was as an athletic utility defender, and up to this point, that is what he had been.
That all changed when Westbrook fractured his finger against the Los Angeles Clippers, and since that point, Jones has been thrust into a role he hasn’t experienced since he left Waco: “the guy.”
Jones finished that Clippers game with a career-high 32 points and has bested his previous career high (14 in his rookie year) in each of his games since then.
Excluding the season opener (where he went an abysmal 1-of-9 from the floor), Jones is averaging 23.7 points per game and shooting an astonishing 53 percent from the field and 44 percent from beyond the arc.
Is that kind of production sustainable? Probably not. But his performance has been a bright spot in an exceptionally dark period for OKC fans, and we’ve witnessed a new side of the Baylor product—a side captured perfectly by Grantland’s Danny Chau:
"By the third quarter of the Clippers game, he was at the center of defensive huddles, being vocal and demonstrative. In the Nuggets game, he was furiously jostling for post position, demanding the ball. On drives, he was Westbrook incarnate, with conscience, but without fear."
Maybe it’s just an anomaly; a hot stretch helped by an expanded role and opponents that are taking pity on this Thunder B-team. But it could also be a sign that Jones (in only his third NBA season) is starting to put it all together. We’ll get closer to an answer over the next month as our sample size grows, but for now, Jones has been the best thing to happen to the Thunder all year, and it’s not even close.
Serge Ibaka’s Ever-Growing Range
Serge Ibaka’s value comes from his elite rim protection, but the offensive strides he’s made every offseason don’t get enough recognition. Over the past few years, he’s honed his jumper to the point that he’s one of the deadliest mid-range shooters in the league.
Last season, we saw Ibaka start to test the waters from beyond the arc, but he’s taken it to a whole new level this season.
| 2009-10 | 2 |
| 2010-11 | 1 |
| 2011-12 | 3 |
| 2012-13 | 57 |
| 2013-14 | 60 |
| 2014-15* | 349 |
Part of that increase is certainly because he has to take on a greater offensive load without Durant and Westbrook, and those three-point attempts will come back to earth a little bit once OKC is operating at full strength.
But the more important note is that he’s hitting over 41 percent of his long-range shots. For reference, only 26 players shot better than 40 percent from downtown last season.
Much like the aforementioned Jones, Ibaka’s numbers will probably regress to the mean to some extent, but it’s clear that the big man has worked on becoming a more consistent three-point shooter and that he has the confidence to let it fly (as evidenced by the seven threes he hoisted against the Denver Nuggets).
If Ibaka can maintain anything close to his current clip, he’ll be the most valuable stretch 4 in the league, as none of the other candidates come close to replicating what he adds defensively.
Neither Jones nor Ibaka will be able to carry this OKC roster, but they have both shown signs of growth and could contribute to a more balanced Thunder offense when everyone gets healthy.
The Bad
Outside Shooting
Both Perry Jones and Serge Ibaka have been fairly impressive at knocking down the long ball. Unfortunately for the Thunder, that’s about the extent of the three-point shooting on their depleted roster.
The Thunder are playing without their best shooters, as Durant, Anthony Morrow and Jeremy Lamb have yet to play a game. Reggie Jackson’s return should help in this department, but it’s been ugly to this point, with OKC ranking as the seventh-worst three-point shooting team in the league, connecting on a putrid 27.5 percent of its attempts.
It’s going to be challenging to replace the quality of shooting that currently resides on the bench in street clothes, so be prepared to watch a whole lot of Jones and Ibaka from beyond the arc.
Fourth-Quarter Performance
OKC’s late-game offense has been a constant thorn in the Thunder’s side, and that trend has continued to start this season. The Thunder are shooting just 36 percent from the floor in the final quarter, struggling to create offense when defenses ratchet up the intensity.
Without a true go-to scorer, OKC has watched its offense sputter in the fourth quarter, and the presence of Reggie Jackson may not be enough to dramatically reverse the performance.
While offensive talent is in play, fatigue is also surely a factor here. With so many players sidelined due to injury, players are getting more minutes than they are used to, and head coach Scott Brooks doesn’t have the bodies to accumulate rest for his guys.
You can’t help but admire the gutsy performance of this decimated roster, but even if the Thunder hang with their opponents, it’s going to be hard to win games without a substantial improvement in how they close games.
The Ugly: The Injury Report
This one hardly needs any explanation, does it? Kevin Durant, Anthony Morrow, Jeremy Lamb, Reggie Jackson and Mitch McGary. Those are some of the key names that were absent from the Thunder’s season opener.
Four games into the season, Jackson is back on the floor, but Russell Westbrook and now Andre Roberson are on the shelf after suffering injuries.
OKC is facing an unprecedented amount of injuries, and unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like the avalanche is subsiding anytime soon. The medical staff is earning its paycheck right now trying to treat all the injured players, and the Thunder can’t afford to have Durant or Westbrook out any longer than the current estimates.
The Thunder entered the season as one of the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, but injuries have them scrapping to make the playoffs. It's been a gut-wrenching start to the season for OKC fans, but the good news is that it can (hopefully) only go up from here.
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