Full Houston Texans Report Card Heading into Week 10 Bye
Going into the bye week with a losing record is disappointing for any team and its fans, but at 4-5 after nine games, the Houston Texans are on pace to hit the predictions and expectations that most people had for them before the year started.
My prediction was 7-9, so with three games remaining against the bottom-feeders of the AFC South, hitting at least that final win total feels like a near lock.
Most teams don't want to admit when they're in a rebuilding or transition phase because of the fear of what it might do to ticket sales, but most observers had to know that this team was never going to be a contender this season.
They had what most believe to be a pretty good draft class back in May, but as we've been forced to remember, relying on rookies isn't a sure bet. Without the rookies stepping up into major contributing roles, this squad just doesn't have enough talent to be considered a top-notch team.
If your expectations were reasonable coming into the season given the questions about talent and experience at several key positions, 4-5 shouldn't feel like a letdown. Sure, they've lost several close games that they could have won, but losing winnable games by a small margin is how average teams typically perform.
The goals for the 2014 season should have been and should continue to be more about identifying the strengths and weaknesses of this team and figuring out which players they want to build around as their cornerstones going forward rather than pushing for a playoff spot.
That goal is on track at most positions, but it still needs to be addressed at quarterback.
I'll go more into the performance of Ryan Fitzpatrick later on, but the team's potential upside with him under center isn't great and isn't worth sacrificing the opportunity they have over their final seven games to get a look at quarterbacks who could possibly be their future at the position.
The only way to have a clear picture on what they should do in terms of addressing the quarterback position in the draft or free agency is to get a look at what the younger quarterbacks on this roster are capable of doing on the field. If that picture isn't clear after the next seven games then this season was a failure.
Normally success for each NFL team is easily defined by their win total, but it's a little more complicated than that for the Texans this season. If Ryan Mallett is a disaster then you can always go back to Fitzpatrick, but at least then you'll know what he's capable of before a contract decision on his future is due.
You could certainly argue that Fitzpatrick gives them the best chance at winning games now, but I could easily and reasonably counter with the obvious opinion that, so far, Fitzpatrick has been an impediment to their success.
What win on their schedule was because he put the team on this back and had an amazing game? Every win they've had was because of either stellar play from Arian Foster or the defense, in my opinion—or in most cases both.
What was the Texans' record in 2004? Did you know it right away? I'm guessing that most of you didn't. I did, but it's only because I have a sickness. But my point is that after 10 years, no one remembers that 7-9 season as special or any more fondly than the four- and five-win seasons that preceded that year.
So who cares if Fitzpatrick leads this year's team to one or two more wins than Mallett is capable of doing? No one will remember the few extra meaningless wins five to 10 years from now.
What you will remember is how they did or did not address the quarterback position, and that process starts by getting a look at the players who could possibly be their future at the position. If those players stink then at least they'll have that information before they reach the draft.
Quarterback
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It's unfortunate that he's played so poorly, because Ryan Fitzpatrick is a player that I want to root for and who seems like a great guy, but his performance this season hasn't been any better than his mediocre to below-average track record over his previous nine seasons.
All of the negative traits we heard about Fitzpatrick from fans and media members who watched him play for other teams have been true. His arm strength is well below average, his accuracy is inconsistent at best and his decision-making under pressure can lead to committing turnovers.
Not that checking off all of those boxes should have been a surprise. The surprising thing would have been a NFL veteran of almost 10 years suddenly and drastically improving as player.
Go back and compare his stats this season to his previous two years in Tennessee and Buffalo. This is who he's always been. His numbers this year for completion percentage, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, yards per completion and yards per game are all very similar to what he did in 2012 and 2013.
There are certainly more factors than just his performance as to why the Texans have lost five of their nine games this season, but obviously his play has been poor.
His stat line deserves a lower grade than I'm giving him, but considering his track record, he's given the team exactly what we should have all expected. Fitzpatrick isn't playing worse than he has in any other year, so hard to kill him over it; if anyone should be blamed it would be the decision-makers who signed him.
Grade: C-
Running Back
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At age 28, all Arian Foster has done is come in and have his best season ever in terms of yards per attempt and yards per game as a runner. Just like we all expected right?
Currently, Foster ranks second in the league in yards per game with 102.8, fourth in yards per attempt at 5.1 and tied for first in combined rushing and receiving touchdowns with 10; without a doubt, he's been the Texans' best and most valuable offensive player this season.
"This just in: @ArianFoster is really good. And has been for a while now. #Texans pic.twitter.com/j1J2cvXADM
— Chris Spisak (@ChrisSpisak) November 2, 2014"
Just look at the one game this season when Foster didn't play. The Texans were destroyed by the New York Giants 30-17 in the only loss this season when they were never competitive or didn't have a chance to win late.
When the time comes for the league to announce their Comeback Player of the Year, Foster should be at the top of that list after many fans left him for dead coming off the back surgery that ended his 2013 season.
Grade: A+
Wide Receiver
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It's difficult to evaluate this position because of how limited the Texans are at quarterback. I think the receivers should be graded on a curve here, as their stats haven't been amazing, but considering the circumstances that are out of their control, they've actually played pretty well.
Both Andre Johnson—1,001—and DeAndre Hopkins—1,216—are on pace to go over the 1,000-yard mark for the season; the Texans have never had two receivers go over that mark in a single season in franchise history.
As good as those two players have been, the Texans have received close to nothing from their slot receivers. Damaris Johnson and Keshawn Martin have combined for 15 receptions and 225 yards over their nine games this year.
Again, it's tough to grade them accurately by their stats because of the poor quarterback play, but overall as a group, the receivers have seemed to run their routes well and catch nearly everything that hits their hands.
Grade: B
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Tight End
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The tight ends have been a completely invisible position group on this team so far this season.
The trio of Garrett Graham, C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin has combined for a total of 16 receptions for 152 yards and zero touchdowns—one fewer receiving touchdown than defensive end J.J. Watt.
As bad as they've been as receivers, they've also contributed next to nothing as blockers, either. Fiedorowicz doesn't seem to know his assignment half the time as a run-blocker and has run the wrong way on occasion, and as a group they've committed just as many if not more false-start or holding penalties than they've had receptions.
"Fiedorowicz busts by stepping in Brown and all heck break loose. -6 yards on the play. #Texans https://t.co/X5dNzutEvG
— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"
"Problem all evening. TEs could not cut off the backside end. Graham can't get to him. #Texans https://t.co/tMp19gXsNl
— PDS (@PatDStat) October 23, 2014"
It's been an awful and very disappointing year for the tight ends so far.
Grade: F
Offensive Line
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By just the rushing numbers, it would appear that the offensive line has done a pretty good job this year, but sometimes stats can be deceiving.
Sure, they've run the ball well, but many of Arian Foster's big runs have come on plays in which he's found huge lanes away from the direction that the run was actually intended. That success is more due to his great vision and burst than it is great blocking from the offensive line.
"Look at Foster set it up with that dip inside the hole to bounce it outside. #Texans https://t.co/tg013mUPo4
— PDS (@PatDStat) October 26, 2014 "
"Arian has developed knack for turning bad blocking into a positive. Gets everybody sucked up to the line, then blasts the void behind them.
— Seth Payne (@PayneNFL) October 26, 2014"
Across the line—except for Derek Newton, because the expectations on him were already low—they've all had a down season this year, which includes former Pro Bowl players Duane Brown and Chris Myers.
They struggle to get push in the run game, they're getting beaten one-on-one in pass protection and they have had too many busts with their assignments allowing free-rushers to get into the backfield to make a play on Ryan Fitzpatrick or the running back.
Right now, the Texans are right in the middle of the league—14th—in sacks allowed with 20, but that number could easily be 30 or higher if not for the mobility and athleticism of Fitzpatrick, who avoids several potential sacks each and every game.
Grade: C-
Defensive Line
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When J.J. Watt is part of your position group, the grade is obviously going to be a good one. However, the strong play from the defensive line has come from more than just Watt.
Ryan Pickett has been an immovable object at nose tackle since signing with the Texans after their first three games. As more of a true two-gap nose than what the Texans have used in years past, Pickett regularly takes on double-teams from opposing offensive lineman and often doesn't move an inch.
"Nose tackle time? Ryan Pickett splitting the double team. #Texans https://t.co/kQ4yoxguH1
— PDS (@PatDStat) October 23, 2014"
His play has not only plugged holes, but by being able to hold his ground, he's given room to and allowed the linebackers to make plays instead of having to dodge blockers who were getting up to the second level.
Then, of course, there is the incredible Watt, who appears to be running away with the Defensive Player of the Year award for the second time in three seasons.
On the year, Watt has 8.5 sacks, seven passes defensed (which is the most among non-defensive backs), 11 tackles for loss (which ranks third in the league), has blocked a kick and returned two turnovers for touchdowns.
To put it simply, Watt has been brilliant. His moves to get around blockers are just ridiculous. It's hard at times not to feel a little bad for the lineman he's embarrassing each play.
Unfortunately, though, as the picture on the intro slide might indicate, it's been a one-man defense at times.
Grade: A
Linebackers
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To the pleasant surprise of many, Whitney Mercilus has stepped out of nowhere recently. In two games against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Mercilus has combined to produce four sacks, four tackles for loss and four quarterback hits.
Where has that production been his entire year?
Besides the recent surge in good play from Mercilus, it's been a down year for the linebackers.
"Sigh. #Texans https://t.co/pFzHzgFPfr
— PDS (@PatDStat) October 21, 2014"
Obviously, the injuries to Jadeveon Clowney and Brian Cushing have been a major part of that. Their replacements have played well at times, but as a group, the linebackers are still missing too many tackles and struggling in coverage too often.
Grade: C
Defensive Backs
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It's been a bumpy road for the Texans defensive backs this season.
Going into the bye week, the Texans rank 29th in passing yards allowed per game, 29th in passing touchdowns allowed, 24th in opposing quarterback completion percentage and dead last in passing plays over 40 yards allowed.
In particular, the play from the safeties has been awful at times. Their poor technique and tendency to be out of position has allowed too many receivers to run right past them while they're supposed to be in deep coverage. They've failed in the concept of "being deeper than the deepest."
Safety D.J. Swearinger has also struggled with the fundamentals of tackling, as he often flies in with his shoulder instead of breaking down in time and wrapping up with his arms.
If you've ever played the video game Madden, it seems like Swearinger is using the "hit stick" on every play. He just goes flying in with no control and too often bounces off the offensive player or flies right past him as they pick up more yards.
Grade: C
Special Teams
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Despite the crucial missed field goal from Randy Bullock last week, the kicking and punting part of the special teams unit has been exceptional this season.
On the year, Bullock has made 15 out of his 18 kicks, including a perfect 2-of-2 on attempts 50 yards or longer.
Punter Shane Lechler has also played well and ranks second in yards per punt, has the third-longest single punt this year and has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line 15 times, which is just three behind the leader.
Where the special teams unit has struggled is with the return game. Danieal Manning ranks 29th in kick-return average at 19.6 yards—he's actually averaging fewer yards than they would get with taking a touchback.
If I were an opposing coach, I would start asking my kicker to purposefully kick the ball just to the goal line or a little shorter to force the Texans to return the ball. Kicking it deep for touchbacks would actually cost them yards.
The punt-return game hasn't been much better, as Keshawn Martin ranks 26th in yards per punt return with 6.6 yards per return.
If they evaluate their roster during the bye week and openly consider making changes, the return game certainly deserves a look.
Grade: B+
Coaching
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Overall, I've liked the job that Bill O'Brien has done. Sure, going into the bye week with a 4-5 record isn't great, but we have to keep in mind that he took over a two-win football team in a rebuilding phase.
Two things have impressed me so far with Coach O'Brien. First, his willingness to be flexible with his system on offense instead of trying to force what he wants to do onto players that it doesn't fit.
Most noticeably that's been the case with the running game. The roster along the offensive line and at running back was acquired to run a zone scheme under the previous regime, with more emphasis on athleticism and agility than raw strength.
In the past, O'Brien has used some zone, but more often a traditional power scheme. However, when you watch the Texans play, the inside and outside zone run plays that were the staple of Gary Kubiak's playbook are still being used, which benefits the offensive line and takes advantage of Arian Foster's great vision.
The other thing that has impressed me is his ability to make adjustments and make comebacks when the team appeared to be dead. Those comebacks have fallen short, but not every team would have even rallied to get within a score.
The best example of that, of course, was when the Texans trailed the Indianapolis Colts 24-0 after the first quarter but rallied to where they actually had the ball down just five points with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter.
Some of his decision-making on when to be aggressive and how often he uses empty formations when the strength of the team is with its star running back have confused me, but he's a rookie too, like many of the players, so hopefully those issues correct themselves as he gains more experience.
Grade: B
Overall
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| Quarterback | C- |
| Running Back | A+ |
| Wide Receiver | B |
| Tight End | F |
| Offensive Line | C- |
| Defensive Line | A |
| Linebackers | C |
| Defensive Backs | C |
| Special Teams | B+ |
| Coaching | B |
| Overall | C+ |
Follow me on Twitter for more opinion and analysis on the Texans: @sackedbybmac
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