Fantasy Football Week 10: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

With the third major wave of byes coming in Week 10—the NFL laid off six teams previously in Weeks 4 and 9—waiver-wire prioritization again hits the forefront as we assess the next seven days at large.

The notable absences cloud every sentence. With Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers on bye, Michael Vick transforms from totally irrelevant to "well, I mean, I guess if you're desperate." This is a week where you're kind of sad Trent Richardson is on a bye.

Yes, fantasy football is the cruelest of all mistresses.     

Looking on the bright side, we've reached the point where one or two dummy teams have made everything easier. Owners of 1-8 or 2-7 outfits have begun the mourning process of their season. Owners of 3-6 teams are in two categories: 1) Desperate enough to do anything to make the playoffs; 2) Not confident enough in their ownership skills to have given up.

That's basically the only benefit of the midseason 13-game week. Otherwise, it's all about picking up the pieces and twisting your body in a pretzel hoping that Semi-Terrible Player X works out. Let's hop into the Week 10 ranks and start the process of making those decisions.

Thursday, Nov. 6	Time (ET)
Sunday, Nov. 9	Time (ET)
Monday, Nov. 10	Time (ET)
Bye Week Teams
Cleveland at Cincinnati	8:25 p.m.
Kansas City at Buffalo	1 p.m.
Miami at Detroit	1 p.m.
Dallas at Jacksonville	1 p.m.
San Francisco at New Orleans	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Baltimore	1 p.m.
Pittsburgh at NY Jets	1 p.m.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay	1 p.m.
Denver at Oakland	4:05 p.m.
St. Louis at Arizona	4:25 p.m.
NY Giants at Seattle	4:25 p.m.
Chicago at Green Bay	8:30 p.m.
Carolina at Philadelphia	8:30 p.m.
Indianapolis	Minnesota
New England	San Diego
Washington	Houston

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 10 or are on the schedule for Monday night.) 

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Peyton Manning, DEN	25 Points
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	23 Points
3	Drew Brees, NO	20 Points
4	Cam Newton, CAR	20 Points
5	Matt Ryan, ATL	18 Points
6	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	18 Points
7	Carson Palmer, ARI	17 Points
8	Matthew Stafford, DET	16 Points
9	Jay Cutler, CHI	16 Points
10	Mark Sanchez, PHI	16 Points
11	Colin Kaepernick, SF	16 Points
12	Russell Wilson, SEA	15 Points
13	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	15 Points
14	Eli Manning, NYG	15 Points
15	Michael Vick, NYJ	14 Points
16	Joe Flacco, BAL	14 Points
17	Andy Dalton, CIN	14 Points
18	Alex Smith, KC	13 Points
19	Kyle Orton, BUF	13 Points
20	Mike Glennon, TB	12 Points

Top Dog: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Even when Manning tells reporters he needs to "play better," as he told reporters following Sunday's loss, he's doing more than enough for his fantasy owners. The reigning MVP had one of his worst games of 2014 in Sunday's loss to New England but still managed 21 points for his fantasy owners. Of course, Peyton Manning cares as much about your fantasy team as you do about how his Papa John's stock is doing.

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Good thing for all involved that Manning will be back to being awesome at real-life and fantasy football this week. The Broncos head to Oakland for their second of three straight road games for about the most self-explanatory sentence that exists on this planet. "Peyton Manning visits the Raiders" is the football equivalent of "Charlie Sheen gets arrested." 

You don't need the rest of the story. It pretty much explains itself. 

Sleeper: Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

I was Ron Burgundy for Halloween this year, mostly because I wanted to emulate the most serious journalist I know. "Mark Sanchez, viable fantasy option" sounds like something Mr. Burgundy would say after one or six too many scotches.

For his first five NFL seasons, Sanchez's career arc ranged from pretty bad to abysmal in New York. Even his "good" 2011 season was mostly his typical below-averageness with a few extra touchdowns thrown in. The Butt Fumble might be the defining NFL play of this digital age.

Yet here I am betting on Sanchez to competently run Chip Kelly's system. The former USC star showed some good and some bad after taking over for Nick Foles on Sunday. He got the ball out quickly and completed 15 of his 22 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns but also threw two picks while being handled with kid gloves. Only once in his 22 attempts did Sanchez attempt a pass traveling longer than 20 yards through the air, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

With the Panthers continuing to be not very good at the whole defense thing, it'll be interesting to see how Sanchez's first start since 2012 goes.

Beware: Michael Vick, New York Jets

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

Vick is a better quarterback than Geno Smith. Not that being better than Smith is particularly hard or anything, but Vick is Rex Ryan's best option in a bad situation. The offense noticeably moves at a crisper pace with him on the field, and even at age 34 Vick remains a viable scrambling option off the edge.

Vick also remains a terrifying person to watch play professional football. Every hit he takes looks like someone took an aluminum baseball bat to the particular body part they are targeting. Only Robert Griffin III can play ball at Vick's cringe-hit level. Nowhere at any point in any particular Michael Vick game does he ever look more than 75 percent healthy.

The Steelers team New York hosts Sunday isn't being mistaken for the Steel Curtain anytime soon. Unfortunately for owners, a Damp Washcloth defense can typically get enough hits on Vick to make him a risky play.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	18 Points
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI	18 Points
3	Andre Ellington, ARI	17 Points
4	Jamaal Charles, KC	17 Points
5	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	16 Points
6	Matt Forte, CHI	16 Points
7	Ronnie Hillman, DEN	15 Points
8	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	15 Points
9	Mark Ingram, NO	14 Points
10	Denard Robinson, JAX	14 Points
11	Jeremy Hill, CIN	13 Points
12	Justin Forsett, BAL	13 Points
13	Eddie Lacy, GB	12 Points
14	Lamar Miller, MIA	12 Points
15	Rashad Jennings, NYG	12 Points
16	Frank Gore, SF	11 Points
17	Bobby Rainey, TB	10 Points
18	Anthony Dixon, BUF	9 Points
19	Tre Mason, STL	9 Points
20	Darren McFadden, OAK	9 Points
21	Joique Bell, DET	8 Points
22	Bishop Sankey, TEN	8 Points
23	Steven Jackson, ATL	7 Points
23	Darren Sproles, PHI	7 Points
24	Terrance West, CLE	6 Points
25	Chris Ivory, NYJ	6 Points
26	Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL	5 Points
27	Ben Tate, CLE	5 Points
28	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	5 Points
29	DeAngelo Williams, CAR	5 Points
30	Pierre Thomas, NO	4 Points

Top Dog: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Murray did not rush for 100 yards or score a touchdown in Sunday's loss to the Arizona Cardinals, which can only mean we only have six seconds left on this earth and this entire process is pointless. Murray has been so phenomenal this season that a perfectly OK performance feels downright disappointing. Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch hasn't had so much as 79 rushing yards since Week 3.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Tony Romo's latest back injury knocks down Murray's ceiling a bit. You'll be surprised to hear that defenses aren't as afraid of Brandon Weeden beating them over the top. And, indeed, the Cardinals cheated toward the line of scrimmage on most run downs.

That Murray still managed four yards per carry and got 20-plus touches is a promising sign. The Jaguars aren't as cushy of a matchup as they seem on paper, but Murray has been too good this season for one OK game to knock him down.

Sleeper: Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For all the excitement about Charles Sims' return, Rainey continues to be a perfectly effective back when given the opportunity. The former Western Kentucky standout gained 121 total yards on his 20 touches in Sunday's loss at Cleveland, giving him his fourth double-digit fantasy day of the season. We're yet to see Sims on an NFL field, so it's hard to pass judgement on where he stands against Rainey.

But when it comes to a Rainey vs. Doug Martin discussion, there isn't one. Rainey has been the better player all season. With Martin hobbled by an ankle injury and Sims' activation proving nothing but a token for Week 9, Rainey appears to have the inside track for the starting job next week against Atlanta.

Playing against the Falcons hasn't been a half-bad deal for offensive players in 2014. 

Beware: Bad RB By Committee Teams

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Talking to you, Jets, Browns and Panthers. Couldn't you at least pick one of your bad running backs to gain three yards on every carry so we know which one of them might sneak his way into the end zone on accident? Oh, you're not reading this because you have a football game to prepare for, a job that is far more complicated than my feeble mind can comprehend?

Oh, OK. Carry on. 

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	18 Points
2	Antonio Brown, PIT	17 Points
3	Calvin Johnson, DET	17 Points
4	Jordy Nelson, GB	16 Points
5	Julio Jones, ATL	15 Points
6	A.J. Green, CIN	15 Points
7	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	15 Points
8	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	15 Points
9	Dez Bryant, DAL	14 Points
10	Sammy Watkins, BUF	12 Points
11	Randall Cobb, GB	12 Points
12	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	11 Points
13	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	11 Points
14	Percy Harvin, NYJ	10 Points
15	Rueben Randle, NYG	10 Points
16	Vincent Jackson, TB	10 Points
17	Brandon Marshall, CHI	9 Points
18	Golden Tate, DET	9 Points
19	Steve Smith, BAL	9 Points
20	Doug Baldwin, SEA	9 Points
21	Mohamed Sanu, CIN	8 Points
22	Anquan Boldin, SF	8 Points
23	Mike Wallace, MIA	7 Points
24	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	7 Points
25	Roddy White, ATL	7 Points
26	Mike Evans, TB	7 Points
27	Martavis Bryant, PIT	6 Points
28	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	6 Points
29	Kenny Stills, NO	6 Points
30	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	6 Points
31	Marques Colston, NO	6 Points
32	Eric Decker, NYJ	5 Points
33	Dwayne Bowe, KC	5 Points
34	Michael Crabtree, SF	5 Points
35	Allen Robinson, JAX	5 Points
36	Kenny Britt, STL	4 Points
37	Wes Welker, DEN	4 Points
38	Brandin Cooks, NO	4 Points
39	Michael Floyd, ARI	4 Points
40	Kenny Britt, STL	4 Points

Top Dog: Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

It's almost comical at this point to reminisce on the hand-wringing that went on after Thomas' slow start. The former Georgia Tech star was averaging 47 yards per game before Denver's bye and had seemingly become third in command behind Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Times have changed. Thomas has racked up five straight 100-yard games since the bye, catching at least seven passes in every contest during that span. While he's gone scoreless the past two weeks, anyone with remote awareness of a Manning offense knows that's bound to turn around. Manning does not Stafford the ball into his target; he takes what's open near the goal line.

Thomas is one of the most physically talented receivers in football and is valuable because of his consistency. Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown was the only other player to receive consideration for the top spot.

Sleeper: Percy Harvin, New York Jets

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

When the Jets acquired Harvin, simple logic said it would take him a few weeks to regain fantasy relevance. Learning an offensive playbook midseason is a near-impossible task, as is getting enough practice time with a quarterback to know what he's thinking on particular reads. Receivers and quarterbacks are codependent, which is why you see so few of them acquired and thrown to the wolves right away.

The Jets had no such waiting-around plans for Harvin. He received seven touches in his debut despite playing about half of the offensive snaps, and upped that number to 12 in Sunday's loss to the Chiefs. Vick and Harvin connected 11 times for 129 yards through the air, and he carried the ball once for eight yards. It was Harvin's first 100-yard game since his address line said Minneapolis.

If the Jets are going to continue using him like this, it won't be his last. 

Beware: Marques Colston and Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Drew Brees spreads the ball around. This is neither new nor particularly illuminating news. Saints players have value by the sheer volume of Brees' work, not because he's fond of one player over another.

Those socialistic tendencies become a problem when there is less wealth to spread around. After averaging nearly 43 touchdown passes over the last three seasons, Brees is on pace for a relatively disappointing 30 at 2014's midpoint. He remains relatively consistent on a yardage and production basis, throwing multiple scores in six of New Orleans' eight games.

Brees just is yet to have the massive win-your-week outcome. This makes starting Saints receivers about as much fun as drinking week-old milk. You can do it and might be safe—I just wouldn't advise it. Stills and Colston each have only one touchdown reception, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to tell which one will receive more work.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Jimmy Graham, NO	12 Points
2	Julius Thomas, DEN	10 Points
3	Greg Olsen, CAR	7 Points
4	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
5	Delanie Walker, TEN	6 Points
6	Travis Kelce, KC	6 Points
7	Jason Witten, DAL	5 Points
8	Mychal Rivera, OAK	5 Points
9	Heath Miller, PIT	5 Points
10	Zach Ertz, PHI	4 Points
11	Charles Clay, MIA	4 Points
12	Vernon Davis, SF	4 Points
13	Jared Cook, STL	4 Points
14	Owen Daniels, BAL	4 Points
15	Jermaine Gresham, CIN	4 Points

Top Dog: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints

After an injury- and performance-related absence, Graham ascends back to his perch atop the tight end rankings. Which can only mean one thing: a return of Jimmy Graham Nonsense Theatre.

This one goes out to all the everyday Jim Grahams and Jimmy Grahams who have had their resumes pushed to the bottom of the pile because employers have to sift through 10 pages of articles to find the person they're attempting to hire.

May the world be your oyster.

Sleeper: Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Rivera was covered in this space last week, which means 95 percent of his continued presence is to allow me to gloat. Hey, I mean, I didn't rank him in the top 15 or anything but...TOOOOOOOOOLD YOU SO ANYWAY.

The Seahawks have been vulnerable to tight ends in the red zone all season and were again in Week 9, allowing Rivera to touch paydirt twice. His 4.8 yards per reception isn't exactly great, but he's received 20 targets over Oakland's last two games and has become a favorite of Derek Carr.

The Broncos, while not as touchdown-prone as Seattle, have also had a rough time covering opposing tight ends this season. Even before Gronkowski's blast off, Denver allowed more than eight points per game to the position. 

Beware: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

USA TODAY Sports

Dude has been abysmal. After catching two passes for 19 yards in San Francisco's frustrating loss to St. Louis, Davis has scored three or fewer fantasy points in five of six games in 2014. Some of that is injury-related, but it was clear even in Week 1 that the 49ers were placing less emphasis on the tight end this season.

Davis is floating bye on his reputation at this point. Tight end is so shallow that some are still forced to start him, but even Heath Miller types are preferable on a week-to-week basis for now.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	Baltimore Ravens	vs. Tennessee Titans	15 Points
2	Arizona Cardinals	vs. St. Louis Rams	13 Points
3	Dallas Cowboys	at Jacksonville Jaguars	11 Points
4	Denver Broncos	at Oakland Raiders	11 Points
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	at New York Jets	10 Points
6	Cincinnati Bengals	vs. Cleveland Browns	9 Points
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	vs. Dallas Cowboys	9 Points
8	Kansas City Chiefs	at Buffalo Bills	8 Points
9	Atlanta Falcons	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7 Points
10	Seattle Seahawks	vs. New York Giants	7 Points
11	Miami Dolphins	at Detroit Lions	6 Points
12	Detroit Lions	vs. Miami Dolphins	6 Points
13	Buffalo Bills	vs. Kansas City Chiefs	6 Points
14	Philadelphia Eagles	vs. Carolina Panthers	6 Points
15	New York Jets	vs. Pittsburgh Steelers	5 Points

Top Dog: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens don't look exactly like top anything after getting ripped to shreds by Ben Roethlisberger. Luckily for them, Zach Mettenberger is not Ben Roethlisberger. What Mettenberger is, however, is a rookie sixth-round pick about to make his second NFL start.

Don Wright/Associated Press

The sixth-round pick distinction typically evokes images of Tom Brady, the best to ever slip through the NFL draft cracks. Sixth-round pick should instead evoke images of Craig Whelihan. Who, you say? Exactly. The history of late-round quarterbacks is littered with 50 Whelihans for every one Brady, especially during their rookie seasons.

Mettenberger has thrown two interceptions in his first 46 NFL passes, a rate that's roughly on par with Kirk Cousins. The sample size is too small for that number to bear any weight, but history suggests far more struggles than successes are coming for the LSU product.

Sleeper: Jacksonville Jaguars

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

One word: Weeden.

Let's move on.

Beware: Seattle Seahawks

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

The Seahawks have given up 30 points to Dallas, 28 points to St. Louis and 24 points to Oakland in the last four weeks. Fourteen of those points were the direct result of special-teams shenanigans, but this isn't the same world-beating unit from 2013. Seattle ranked 16th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA entering Week 9 and probably won't see much of an uptick after an OK performance against the Raiders.

The home-field advantage and Eli Manning's Eli-ness makes this seem like a tasty matchup on paper, and I wouldn't even necessarily suggest sitting the Seahawks. Just recalibrate expectations closer to a top-10 defensive unit rather than the clear No. 1.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Cody Parkey, PHI	12 Points
2	Justin Tucker, BAL	12 Points
3	Phil Dawson, SF	11 Points
4	Chandler Catanzaro, ARI	11 Points
5	Shaun Suisham, PIT	10 Points
6	Mason Crosby, GB	10 Points
7	Steven Hauschka, SEA	9 Points
8	Matt Bryant, ATL	9 Points
9	Graham Gano, CAR	9 Points
10	Caleb Sturgis, MIA	9 Points
11	Shayne Graham, NO	8 Points
12	Dan Bailey, DAL	8 Points
13	Dan Carpenter, BUF	7 Points
14	Brandon McManus, DEN	7 Points
15	Robbie Gould, CHI	7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles

Expect the drop-off from Foles to Sanchez to be smaller than conventional wisdom. At least smaller than the drop-off from Romo to Weeden, which knocks Dan Bailey's projections down. (Bailey would be No. 1 with Romo in the lineup.)

Sleeper: Shaun Suisham, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are scoring a ton and the veteran is steady. As always, ride the hottest offenses when it comes to kickers.

Beware: Dan Bailey, Dallas Cowboys

Weeden, Brandon. 

Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or less of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Carson Palmer	QB	Arizona Cardinals	42.8%
Ryan Tannehill	QB	Miami Dolphins	40.5%
Bobby Rainey	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	42.7%
Terrance West	RB	Cleveland Browns	30.9%
Anthony Dixon	RB	Buffalo Bills	21.5%
Jonas Gray	RB	New England Patriots	17.7%
Rueben Randle	WR	New York Giants	45.8%
Greg Jennings	WR	Minnesota Vikings	45.6%
Mike Evans	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31.6%
Martavis Bryant	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers	21.9%
Kenny Stills	WR	New Orleans Saints	6.4%

Grab Him Now: Mike Evans (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Evans is far from a finished product, but it appears he's beginning to emerge as a co-lead with Vincent Jackson in the Tampa Bay passing game. The former Texas A&M standout set career highs with seven receptions for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's loss to Cleveland. While his rookie campaign has been interrupted by nagging injuries, Evans has now scored in three of his last four games.

Jason Miller/Getty Images

That the Buccaneers were actively engaging in trade talks for Jackson is telling. Lovie Smith and Co. are preparing to wipe the slate clean and start anew, which means high-priced veterans like Jackson may be fazed out down the stretch.

Despite being targeted 23 fewer times, Evans has as many receptions and more yards than Jackson in 2014. Rookie receivers are always a risk, but a changing of the guard is afoot.

Stash Him While You Can: Kenny Stills (WR, New Orleans Saints)

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Contradiction, you say? Well, yeah, OK. That's probably true. This isn't the best time to suggest grabbing Stills, mere paragraphs after saying to not trust Saints receivers.

But the two are related. It's impossible to trust Colston or Stills right now because the latter is impinging on the former's production. Stills has compiled 272 receiving yards on 14 receptions over the last three weeks, while Colston has gone for 196 yards on his 13 receptions during that span. A fifth-round pick in 2013, Stills' calling card has long been his breakaway speed, but he's also flashing much more polish as a route-runner this season.

With the former Oklahoma star's injury issues over, he might be on the brink of an emergence. Remember: The cap-strapped Saints can save more than $4 million by releasing Colston this offseason, per Spotrac. Sean Payton isn't going to purposely lose games with a long-term picture in mind, but he may want to see if Stills has the goods for No. 1 billing in 2015. At the very least it's worth monitoring the situation.

Wondering who to drop? Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or more of ESPN.com leagues you can feel free throwing back into the waiver pool: 

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Andy Dalton	QB	Cincinnati Bengals	72.6%
Andre Williams	RB	New York Giants	76.0%
Doug Martin	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	68.3%
Zac Stacy	RB	St. Louis Rams	51.5%
Michael Floyd	WR	Arizona Cardinals	79.0%
Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	Minnesota Vikings	72.9%
Wes Welker	WR	Denver Broncos	64.2%
Jordan Cameron	TE	Cleveland Browns	67.9%

Top Drop of the Week: Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Minnesota Vikings)

Hi everyone, thanks for coming. I'm sure you all know why I've gathered you here today. I have a confession to make. I, despite my public decries to the contrary, am too a hype addict. I bought into the preseason swirl surrounding Cordarrelle Patterson despite his grand total of 469 receiving yards as a rookie and the general rawness of his skill set.

Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

A fourth-round pick was wasted in his honor. The team in said league is currently sitting at 1-7, as I blissfully await waking up Wednesday morning to see someone other than Cordarrelle Patterson occupying a bench spot in said league.  

Given the way the season has gone, the move is more symbolic than anything. No matter, it'll still be the best move I made in that league all of 2014. I implore you to join this journey with me.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All ownership percentages are via ESPN