
The Definitive Blueprint for a Successful Baltimore Orioles Offseason
With the World Series ending last week, the MLB offseason has officially begun. And that, in turn, means that the winter market is open for business.
With the Baltimore Orioles winning the AL East and advancing to the ALCS (both for the first time since 1997), now is not the time for the team to be a huge player on the free-agent and trade markets this offseason.
Having had success in 2014, it's evident that a strong core is currently in place. The Orioles are molding their own stars; they don't need to buy them from someone else.
Instead, the O's front office needs to focus on keeping the current group together while adding complementary pieces and depth throughout the organization. Easier said than done.
The following are the Orioles' main points of focus in order for them to have a successful offseason.
Keep MIller, or Add Someone Like Him
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At the July 31 trade deadline, the O's dealt top prospect Eduardo Rodriguez to the Boston Red Sox for lefty reliever Andrew Miller, and Miller did not disappoint.
In 20 innings pitched as a late-inning set-up guy, Miller posted a 1.35 ERA, allowing just eight hits and four walks while striking out 34 batters. In short, he was everything the team wanted him to be, proving to be the completing piece to a dominant Orioles bullpen.
Miller is now a free agent, and the O's would absolutely love to keep him. The problem is that it's almost a positive that other teams, such as the Red Sox and Detroit Tigers for instance, are sure to throw stupid money at him.
Left-handed relievers who dominate batters from both sides of the plate are rare, and Miller fared pretty evenly against left-handed and right-handed batters (.163 BAA compared to .145, respectively).
Plenty of teams will bid on Miller's services, and hey, some could even offer him a closer's job. And if late-inning reliever Koji Uehara just received a two-year, $18 million contract extension from the Red Sox as he's going on 40 years of age, then what's Miller going to be seeking?
For those reasons, it's hard to see Miller sticking in Baltimore because it's hard to see Baltimore being the top bidder for his services.
Even though their bullpen is strong without Miller, they're certainly going to need to find a replacement for him should he end up signing elsewhere. It'll be hard to find and add a pitcher just as good as Miller, but the team should be able to succeed at adding a guy who can dominate in a seventh- and eighth-inning set-up role, thus being "like Miller."
Darren O'Day and Zach Britton are exceptional pieces at the back end of the bullpen, but they can't do it all on their own. They'll need at least one more arm to help them.
Make Sure the Run Production Remains
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The Orioles were pretty good at scoring runs during the 2014 season.
Their 705 runs scored ranked eighth in the major leagues, and they led the majors in homers with 211, smacking over 200 dingers for the third straight season.
If the Birds want to make the playoffs again in 2015, it's no secret that they're going to need to at least maintain the run production that they posted in 2014.
The team has some good offensive pieces already in Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters and Chris Davis. But Baltimore may need to make some additions this offseason in order to keep its lineup just as potent.
Outfielder and DH Nelson Cruz and right fielder Nick Markakis are both on the free-agent market, and it's thought the O's would like to bring both of them back. The odds of Markakis remaining an Orioles appear to be good, while Cruz will be more difficult to bring back after a career year.
If the O's do lose Cruz's bat, they'll need to find an adequate replacement. There's one other free-agent option (Victor Martinez) who will likely bank around as much as Cruz, as well as some free-agent options that will likely come cheaper than Cruz (Billy Butler, Michael Morse).
The goal for the O's offensively this winter should be to add to their on-base ability while keeping the homer totals up there. And if they can't add OBP, then at least make sure they can rake just like they have the past few seasons.
Don't Touch the Starting Rotation
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For once, the Orioles' starting rotation is a bit of a strength.
For once, the O's don't need to go into the winter looking to add arms to bolster their starting five.
For once, the O's rotation is alright.
Seemingly every offseason, the O's look to add pieces to improve their starting rotation. Last season it was Ubaldo Jimenez. At the 2013 trade deadline, it was Bud Norris and Scott Feldman.
Right now, the O's don't need to add anything but depth to their rotation.
With a starting five of Chris Tillman (pictured), Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris and Kevin Gausman to close the season, the O's had a rotation that featured pitchers who all had ERAs of 3.65 or below. Only Gausman didn't reach double digits in wins, having started 20 games on the season. The rotation became so good that Jimenez, whom the O's had just signed to a four-year, $50 million contract before the 2014 season, found himself in the bullpen, on the outside looking in.
Sure, the O's don't currently have a bona fide ace, but they have some guys who could develop into one in Tillman, Gausman, and Dylan Bundy in the minors. They don't need to go paying for one right now.
The only work they need to be doing on the rotation this winter is adding a couple of depth arms who can wait in the minors in case they're needed. Otherwise, they're set.
Unless they can find a way to deal Jimenez, but that's a topic for another time.
Continue to Enhance Depth
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Speaking of adding depth, the Orioles have become one of the best teams at it, and it's helped them tremendously during their success the last three seasons.
Executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette has done a fantastic job at finding guys with ability that other teams have given up on, stashing them in the minors, then calling upon them when they're needed to watch them succeed.
Miguel Gonzalez. Nate McLouth. Delmon Young. Steve Pearce. Do those names ring any bells?
Pearce (pictured) stepped up huge for the Orioles in 2014, contributing extremely well both offensively and defensively when first baseman Chris Davis went down with an injury earlier in the season, third baseman Manny Machado injured himself later in the year, and most importantly when Davis was suspended for 25 games in September—effectively ending his season.
It isn't a stretch to say that Pearce saved the Orioles' season, because without his .293 BA, 21 homers and .373 OBP at a time when the team was missing Machado, Davis and catcher Matt Wieters, who knows where the O's would be.
And of course, Pearce isn't the only guy who stepped up and contributed to the Orioles' winning without some of their better players. But he's the staple for the Duquette is always trying to do: Add a ton of guys with ability to the organization and hope that a few of them stick at the major league level.
These moves are always low-risk, high-reward situations. And Duquette seems to be either lucky, brilliant or a little bit of both when it comes to choosing whom he wants to add to the organization.

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