Detroit Tigers' Uncertain Future Not an Easy Fix This Offseason

The days of the Detroit Tigers being perennial World Series contenders are no more.

Their star-studded roster is about to become thin, and unless ownership is willing to spend with the likes of the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, the Tigers are going to watch much of their firepower disappear. As for the stars they still possess, those are aging rapidly as they saddle the franchise with expensive, untradeable contracts.

The Tigers are entering their most uncertain offseason in recent memory as the division-rival Kansas City Royals are now a real title threat. Simply put, as of right now, the Tigers’ future is bleak.

“New guys come in and old guys leave,” Justin Verlander told reporters (via The Associated Press) the day Detroit’s season ended last month. “I’m the last guy standing from 2006. I think there’s going to be a bit of a retooling.”

That retooling, which is not quite a rebuild, is not by choice, however. The Tigers are being forced into it by way of free agency.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Ace Max Scherzer is going to be the top pitching target on the open market, and designated hitter/occasional first baseman Victor Martinez is coming off a monster season, the best of his career in which he led the American League in on-base percentage and OPS. He will be one of the top hitters on the market despite him entering next season as a 36-year-old.

Right fielder Torii Hunter is also a free agent and could opt to retire, although he will have his share of suitors. Hunter is a well-liked player, and MLB.com Tigers beat writer Jason Beck called him the “heart of the clubhouse.” If Hunter leaves, it will mean the guys who hit directly in front (Hunter) and behind (Martinez) Miguel Cabrera will be gone.

As for Cabrera himself, the all-world hitter had a screw put into his right ankle late last month and is set to be re-evaluated in three months. Until then, Cabrera won’t have any rehabilitation other than rest. That puts his availability for Opening Day in limbo.

“We have no idea at this point,” general manager Dave Dombrowski told Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. “Time framewise, we’re just going to wait until the three-month period.”

That could leave the Tigers going into next season without huge chunks of their offensive production and their ace over the last two years. Replacing that won’t be an easy puzzle to solve.

The Tigers have a dismal farm system right now, and their top prospect, outfielder Derek Hill (as rated by MLB.com), is still a teenager. Detroit’s system was nominated for a “MiLBY” award for best farm system, but the award is for how a system fared in all of its seasons, not for how much major league talent it's producing or will produce.

There is no help at the top levels of the system, and going after premium talent in the free-agent market would likely cost them a compensation pick—all free agents who received qualifying offers have draft-pick compensation attached to their signing with new teams.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Then there is the bullpen, a source of fan frustration and losses for several years, but it was the clear weak point of this year’s club. The Tigers signed Joe Nathan to be their closer, but he had one of the worst seasons of his career, compiling a 4.81 ERA and blowing seven saves.

One of the team’s best relievers, Joba Chamberlain (3.16 FIP), is also a free agent. His numbers declined in the second half, but that could be because he was used so much early. For a while, Chamberlain was on pace for a career high in appearances.

If the Tigers don’t bring him back, which doesn’t seem likely now that they’ve exercised the $7 million option for Joakim Soria, their shaky bullpen will enter next season without its best arm. Phil Coke is also a free agent, and he had the bullpen’s second-best FIP at 3.98 (minimum 40 innings pitched).

So, basically, what has been their problem area could once again be an issue in 2015. And, as this past postseason clearly showed, you have to have a trustworthy bullpen to advance.

As for whom the Tigers still have under contract beyond Cabrera, Verlander is on the wrong side of 30 and is coming off his worst season since becoming a full-time player in 2006.

Having David Price could mask losing Scherzer, which seems likely since the sides couldn’t come to an extension agreement before the season. But Price can become a free agent after next season, as can Rick Porcello, who pitched 204.2 innings and had a 116 ERA+ (Scherzer’s ERA+ was 127).

There is also catcher Alex Avila, who has somewhat of a murky future, at least behind the plate, because of repeated concussions.

No part of the Tigers’ current situation is promising. Too much production is on the way out, not enough is coming in and the production that can leave after next season likely will if the team’s situation doesn’t improve.  

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The @Tigers’ window to a championship may be closing quickly, writes @castrovince. http://t.co/OKwn4CpgsJ

— SportsonEarth (@SportsonEarth) October 1, 2014"

Using ESPN.com’s Future Power Rankings (subscription required), the Tigers rank 13th in the majors, two spots behind the Royals. In many minds, that is accurate, and the gap may grow after 2015.

No other contending team has as much uncertainty about its future as the Tigers, and now that the Royals are a legitimate threat to take the top spot in the AL Central, the Tigers are in sink-or-swim mode, sinking being more likely in the coming years.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.