Breeders' Cup 2014: Updated Weather Forecast, Odds and Field Predictions
Massive amounts of money will change hands at the 2014 Breeders' Cup, a premier showcasing of horse racing highlighted by Saturday's Classic.
Throughout the day, $19.5 million in prize money will be allocated over nine events. The main event, the Breeders' Cup Classic, boasts the best of the best, with a lofty $5 million purse at stake.
A loaded field will burst out of the opening gates. After failing to seize the Triple Crown more than five months ago, California Chrome returns to the spotlight with redemption on his handlers' minds. To do so, he'll have to get through a familiar foe in Tonalist as well as an emerging stud in Shared Belief.
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Now Mother Nature just needs to cooperate in Arcadia, California, on Saturday afternoon.
Weather Forecast
The weather could dampen Saturday's slate at Santa Anita, with a small chance of rain throughout the day.
Weather.com forecasts temperatures ranging in the low- to mid-60s, with a 10-20 percent chance of rain throughout the afternoon. The first of nine races will begin at 12:05 p.m PDT, with the Classic taking off at 5:35 p.m. The chances of precipitation drop to 10 percent at 5 p.m., but the competitors could have to deal with a slippery track.
The forecast earlier called for unpleasant conditions at night with ideal weather during the day. Perhaps that changed projection will prove right instead of this more threatening one.
Classic Odds and Predictions
| 1 | Prayer for Relief | 30-1 |
| 2 | Cigar Street | 12-1 |
| 3 | Imperative | 30-1 |
| 4 | Moreno | 20-1 |
| 5 | V. E. Day | 20-1 |
| 6 | Shared Belief | 9-5 |
| 7 | Bayern | 6-1 |
| 8 | Zivo | 15-1 |
| 9 | Toast of New York | 12-1 |
| 10 | Footbridge | 30-1 |
| 11 | Tonalist | 5-1 |
| 12 | Candy Boy | 20-1 |
| 13 | California Chrome | 4-1 |
| 14 | Majestic Harbor | 20-1 |
Some will be surprised to see that California Chrome doesn't carry the best odds heading into Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic. That honor instead belongs to Shared Belief, who has yet to not win a race in seven tries.
Shared Belief's most recent first-place finish came at Santa Anita, where Jerry Hollendorfer's colt won the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes on Sept. 27. This torrid stretch has him seizing the spotlight from California Chrome, the reigning Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes champion.
Along with an unblemished record, Shared Belief has jockey Mike Smith at the helm. Since debuting in 1982, the 49-year-old has won 5,226 races and four Triple Crown events, per Equibase.com. Placing in 48 percent of events this years, he hasn't lost his touch.
“Horses have always been there for me,” Smith told Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden. “I feel more comfortable on a horse than I do sitting around the house. You put me on a horse, and man, I’m home.”
Then again, the bigger concern is whether his horse loses a step after dominating four races over the past five months. Smith doesn't think so, as he relayed strong practice results to NTRA's Joan Law.
Meanwhile, after falling shy of a Triple Crown during the final leg, California Chrome placed sixth at the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 20. Racing four times in two months (winning all of them) wore down the Steven Coburn's esteemed colt, but that showing at Parx Racing represented his only event since June's Belmont Stakes.
With a familiar name from Triple Crown season clashing against an undefeated adversary, the Classic is naturally framed as a two-horse battle between a pair of ferocious contenders. They're not, however, the only names in town.
Tonalist ended Chrome's Triple Crown quest at the Belmont Stakes, and he has earned a top-three finish in each of the last seven races. USA Today's Jennie Rees believes the Belmont champion deserves more recognition.
"Tonalist isn't getting the hype of California Chrome and Shared Belief," Rees said, "but he never runs a bad race, including winning the Belmont and beating older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He has looked great training here.
He'll once again trump pass Chrome on the track, but this time a surging Shared Belief will be there to snipe his eighth consecutive victory. With no signs of the 7-0 thoroughbred slowing down, why pick anyone else?
Predictions: 1. Shared Belief 2. Tonalist 3. California Chrome
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