Bowl Predictions 2014: Playoff Projections Heading into Week 10
There were a lot of College Football Playoff contenders and fanbases hoping that Louisville could hold onto a 21-0 lead on Thursday against Florida State.
Alas, the Cardinals collapsed down the stretch and the Seminoles made the necessary plays to win—which is ultimately far more important than any style points as long as there is a zero in the loss column—and the defending champs still have the inside lane to a playoff position.
With that in mind, here is a look at some updated playoff projections as we head into Saturday’s Week 10 games.
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Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal Winners)
Florida State will win out with the majority of its difficult games behind it. An undefeated defending national champion is absolutely getting into the playoffs.
Michigan State will also win out and get credit for a Big Ten championship. Pac-12 contenders, Big 12 contenders and Notre Dame will all pick up a second loss (look for the Fighting Irish to lose to Arizona State or USC), which will open up a spot for the Spartans.
Alabama will win out and grab a spot as the SEC champion, and Mississippi State will sneak in as the fourth team with only a single loss to the Crimson Tide and noteworthy wins over LSU, Auburn and Ole Miss on its resume.
Game of the Week with Biggest Playoff Implications: No. 3 Auburn at No. 4 Ole Miss
While neither Auburn nor Ole Miss are in these playoff projections, there is no Week 10 game with bigger postseason implications than the SEC showdown between the Tigers and Rebels.
The winner will stay right in the thick of the daunting SEC West race, but the loser will pick up a crippling second loss and a difficult head-to-head defeat against one of the other contenders. It is not an official elimination game in the conference race, but it certainly feels like it with the Crimson Tide hitting their stride and Mississippi State winning every week.
A loss could also mean elimination from the College Football Playoff race.
Neither team was particularly impressive in its last game, although Auburn’s offense and Ole Miss’ defense both get a pass because they played very well.
The Rebels lost 10-7 at LSU but had a chance to tie the game with a field goal in the final seconds. Instead, they went for a deep pass that was intercepted, which ended any hopes of an undefeated season.
The Tigers managed to beat South Carolina 42-35, but the defense allowed five fourth-down conversions and a successful onside kick. While it was one of those defense-optional type of games most of the way, Jonathan Jones did tally two interceptions, including one of the final play, to help secure the win.
Incredibly, Auburn is 8-1 in games decided by eight points or less since the start of last season.
The Tigers beat Ole Miss in 2013, but something will have to give in this matchup. Ole Miss is the one team in the country that has not given up more than 20 points in a game, and Auburn has scored at least 20 in every contest since 2013. The Rebels are also first in the country in scoring defense at 10.5 points a game, while the Tigers are 15th in scoring offense at 39.3 points a game.
The Tigers are also 10th nationally at 281 rushing yards per game, which will prove to be the ultimate difference. It certainly was last year when Auburn ran for 282 yards in a win over Ole Miss.
Ole Miss allowed 264 rushing yards against LSU, and Auburn put 395 rushing yards on the board against South Carolina. What’s more, the Rebels will be without linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche for the season after he broke an ankle in the last game, which is devastating for a squad that relies so heavily on its defense.
That is a lot of momentum on Auburn's side going into this head-to-head showdown.
Cameron Artis-Payne leads the Auburn rushing attack with 831 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, but Nick Marshall is also threat with 581 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
Joe Schad of ESPN highlighted the main storyline of the contest and the fact that Ole Miss has been winning by a different formula than other top-notch playoff contenders this season:
Auburn will win by controlling the clock and tempo with the ground game. That will be critical if and when the game comes down to the final minutes and is a major reason why the Tigers seem to win all those close contests. Artis-Payne suggested as much to STATS LLC, via ESPN.com:
“We found a way to win games late last year and we still feel that same way about this team. We feel like if it's tight in the fourth quarter we will find a way to win."
Artis-Payne is exactly right—this will come down to the final moments, and Auburn will once again find a way to win.
Prediction: Auburn 27, Ole Miss 21
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