Breeders' Cup Classic 2014: Vegas Betting Odds, Race Predictions and More
Apart from the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders' Cup Classic presents the largest field of elite competitors in horse racing. With 14 of the world's best horses, regardless of age, the Classic is truly the crown jewel of the sport's most exciting weekend.
This year, the odds have mostly been stagnant since the opening lines, as there have been no scratches to date. However, that also reflects a field full of multiple graded winners that is difficult to handicap, simply due to the quality of competition.
Looking at the updated odds, via Daily Racing Form, let's highlight some of the top horses at Santa Anita Park in projecting the top three finishers.
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| 1 | Shared Belief | 2-1 |
| 2 | Bayern | 5-1 |
| T-3 | California Chrome | 6-1 |
| T-3 | Tonalist | 6-1 |
| 5 | Zivo | 12-1 |
| T-6 | Cigar Street | 15-1 |
| T-6 | Toast of New York | 15-1 |
| T-8 | Moreno | 20-1 |
| T-8 | V. E. Day | 20-1 |
| T-8 | Majestic Harbor | 20-1 |
| T-11 | Candy Boy | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Footbridge | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Imperative | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Prayer for Relief | 30-1 |
| AE | Big Cazanova | 30-1 |
Show: California Chrome
The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner is the biggest name in the field, but rust is a legitimate concern for California Chrome. Since falling short in the Belmont Stakes, Chrome has raced just once, finishing a disturbing sixth in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby.
Chrome has mostly been silent this week, getting his final work in at Santa Anita much earlier in the week than most horses. But as analysis of his workout shows, Chrome's camp has been optimistic about the horse's chances:
Assuming he is recovered from the hoof injury he suffered at Belmont, Chrome is arguably the most talented horse in the field. Nevertheless, the long layoff figures to present some issues. Chrome does get to start from the No. 13 post, where he can trail in from behind from a wide position.
Even though he enters the Classic with less momentum than nearly any other horse, Chrome cannot be overlooked as a legitimate consideration to finish in the money.
Place: Toast of New York
The field's strength means that even the secondary favorites are legitimate contenders to win. Toast of New York, at 15-1 odds, represents one of the best values for bettors looking to unearth a dark horse to contend for the victory.
Though a three-year-old like most of the other horses, Toast of New York is considerably less experienced, having competed in just two graded stakes races. His only Grade 1 race was a place finish at the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes on Aug. 24. However, trainer Jamie Osbourne has been extremely pleased with the horse's form since arriving from the United Kingdom, according to The Telegraph's Marcus Armytage:
"Am I happy with the horse? Yes, he looks marvellous. When we decided to aim here three months ago we wanted him in this sort of form and we’ve got it. My job is to get him here as best I could, now it’s Jamie’s job to do the steering.
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Veteran jockey Jamie Spencer, who is retiring in December, will provide a steady hand for Toast at the unfamiliar California race track.
Toast of New York is a wild card due to his lack of exposure at American race tracks, but as arguably the top international horse in the field, he deserves legitimate consideration for a money finish.
Win: Shared Belief
Shared Belief certainly possesses as much talent as any horse in the field, as evidenced by his undefeated record in seven races. However, jockey Mike Smith, whose presence has been ubiquitous at Santa Anita this weekend, could be the variable that propels the favorite over the top.
Smith has been at the California track for much of the week, racing in Maiden Special Weight races on other horses. The 49-year-old will also have raced in nine of the 13 Breeders' Cup races by Saturday night. According to Daily Racing Form's Steve Andersen, Shared Belief is unlike any other horse Smith has jockeyed, however, after the horse's remarkable victory in the Awesome Again Stakes earlier this summer:
"If there were any doubt in Smith’s mind about the brilliance of the seven-time winner Shared Belief, it was answered in the Awesome Again at 1 1/8 miles. Sent off at 1-5, Shared Belief was carried four wide on the first turn by a rival and was five wide on the backstretch before taking the lead in the stretch and beating a stubborn opponent in Fed Biz.
For Smith, it was a shocking performance. He abandoned hope of extending Shared Belief’s winning streak midway through the race but changed his outlook at the end of the backstretch, where the gelding surged forward.
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Shared Belief faces his most difficult competition yet, and his first encounter with California Chrome is drawing most of the pre-race hype. However, with Smith in the saddle, there is little doubt about the best horse-jockey combination in the field.
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