Bold Prediction for the 2015 Rugby World Cup Final a Year Away

The 2015 Rugby World Cup final at Twickenham is exactly a year away. My prediction is for an England-New Zealand final. This is based on how the draw will pan out and England’s home advantage.

England, at home, should beat Wales and probably Australia in the tough Pool A. Being in the hardest group has distinct advantages for the team who tops it, with the reward of a favourable knockout draw. Should England top the Pool, they are likely to face either Scotland or Samoa in the quarter-final, with a semi-final likely to be against France, Ireland or Argentina.

Then there is home advantage to consider. The host nation has won its own Rugby World Cup in three of the seven editions of the tournament. Only Wales, in 1999, have failed to make the semi-final having hosted the tournament outright.

Year	Host	Stage Reached
2015	England
2011	New Zealand	Winners
2007	France	Semi-Final
2003	Australia	Final
1999	Wales	Quarter-Final
1995	South Africa	Winners
1991	Five Nations teams	England—Final, Scotland—Semi-Final
1987	New Zealand, Australia	New Zealand—Winners, Australia—Semi-Final

New Zealand and South Africa are the two heavyweights on the other side of the draw to England or the winners of Pool A in general. That would be a match to savour.

New Zealand, prior to making the semis, would have to negotiate a tough tie against either their Rugby World Cup nemeses, the French, or an Ireland team who came so close to beating them in Dublin last year. They would then face South Africa, who beat them 27-25 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg in the Rugby Championship and suffered a narrow 14-10 defeat to the All Blacks in Wellington. This semi-final would be very physical and very close, but New Zealand would start as favourites.  

The World Cup final, between England and New Zealand would also be a tight affair, not least because World Cup Finals always are. Even in 2007, when South Africa were a far better team than England, they only won 15-6, and had Mark Cueto’s effort not been controversially disallowed, the scoreline may have been even tighter.

New Zealand, however, should be favourites for the title in 2015 because of their world-class players and strength in depth but more importantly their fitness and mentality. The All Blacks can have an off-day and still win narrowly at the death. That was exactly the case against a much-weakened England in the first Test in June and, most recently, against Australia in the Rugby Championship.

The 2015 Rugby World Cup final will be a great spectacle, and it is now only a year away.