Making the Call on Week 9's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions

Week 9 got off to a maddening start, at least if you are a Carolina Panthers fan or own any of their offensive players in fantasy football.

Who knew the Saints would suddenly be a defensive juggernaut in their 28-10 win on Thursday Night Football? Perhaps there is a new normal in New Orleans. We'll have to take that into account going forward.

There is plenty of other stuff already taken into account for upcoming matchups this Sunday. With six teams on bye (Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay and Tennessee), getting your lineup right might be an especially tricky task.

Here are some of this week's toughest lineup decisions.

Start: Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos

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The Denver Broncos trek to New England to take on the Patriots in the latest installment of Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady.

The future Hall of Fame quarterbacks have staged some epic battles in the past, and there is little reason to believe this weekend won't be another good one. There is some concern about high wind speeds, per CBS Denver. It doesn't concern Demaryius Thomas, however:

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When asked how they can prepare for the wind, Thomas answered, "You really can’t. Last year it was windy. I think our main thing is not turning over the ball. We had a couple of turnovers that were critical to the game they recovered and were able to score. If we can get out there and make sure we don’t turn the ball over, you know that might help us in the game."

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Thomas is a must-start, of course, as are his teammates Emmanuel Sanders, Julius Thomas and Ronnie Hillman. But what about former Patriot Wes Welker?

The 5'9", 185-pound receiver hasn't been the fantasy dynamo of years past, but he has the ability to go off any given week in that offense. Facing his former team, this could be one of those times.

Of course, Welker hasn't exactly ripped his old team yet—he had just eight receptions for 69 yards in two games combined against the Patriots last year. He is fully healthy heading into this matchup, however, and the Broncos are a nightmare to game-plan for defensively.

With high winds expected (around 20 miles per hour, according to Weather.com), the Broncos might be relying on the short game to boot. This is the perfect opportunity for Welker to finally get his revenge.

Fantasy Prediction: Six receptions, 75 yards, one TD.

Final Verdict: It's revenge week for Welker, and the high winds could force the ball into his hands more often than otherwise.

Sit: Michael Vick, QB, New York Jets

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You will be tempted to do it. I have received plenty of questions about him. But stay strong—don't start New York Jets quarterback Michael Vick.

Not on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, that is.

Vick has taken the reins from disappointing second-year man Geno Smith. Whether that is a permanent change remains to be seen, but the former will be starting against the Kansas City Chiefs on the road this weekend. 

That would be the same Chiefs defense that has given up the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last five weeks despite having faced New England's Tom Brady, San Diego's Philip Rivers and San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick.

Vick has the chance to break off a couple of big runs, but he is also liable to turn the ball over a few times. It was easy to overlook his three turnovers—the same number Smith had—against the Bills last week in a 43-23 loss.

Perhaps the Chiefs will get out to a huge lead and give Vick a chance to put up some nice numbers late, but that is a gamble you shouldn't take.

Fantasy Prediction: 18-of-31, 185 yards, one TD, two INTs; eight carries, 55 yards, zero TDs.

Final Verdict: Vick might be as big of a turnover machine as Smith, and starting against a quality pass defense on the road doesn't sound like a formula for fantasy success.

Start: Percy Harvin, WR, New York Jets

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It might be a bad idea to start Michael Vick, but Percy Harvin could finally bust loose this week.

The newly minted New York Jets receiver had a tepid debut last week against the Buffalo Bills, but he still saw nine targets to go along with four carries. His usage showed the Jets were trying to get him the ball despite the fact he was new to the offense.

As he familiarizes himself with the scheme, his playing time should increase. He may not play a full complement of snaps just yet, but a similar workload seems likely.

The Jets offense isn't going to put up a ton of points this week in Kansas City unless the Chiefs turn into pumpkins or the game is an early blowout. But they should be able to move the ball, and Harvin will be a big part of that.

After all, Vick might have a bad fantasy day, but that doesn't mean he will put up negative passing statistics. Someone is going to have to gain those 175 yards projected on the previous slide, and Harvin is a good candidate to get a chunk.

Fantasy Prediction: Five receptions, 80 yards, zero TDs; five carries, 30 yards, zero TDs.

Final Verdict: Harvin was involved plenty in the offense last game, and he could see even more of that this week as he continues to absorb the playbook. He might not get into the end zone, but a few big plays could land him in double digits in the fantasy realm.

Sit: Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders

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Andre Holmes has been a breath of fresh air in Oakland.

The Raiders receiver has ascended to the top of the depth chart, and he has put up some nice fantasy football lines as a result. Last week against the Cleveland Browns, Holmes had five receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown. For the season, he has 23 receptions, 372 yards and four scores.

He might be a nice option on most weeks, but this would be a week to avoid him. Holmes is traveling north to face cornerback Richard Sherman and the Seattle Seahawks defense.

Now, the Seahawks haven't exactly been the dominant defense they were in 2013 this year, even at home where they are buoyed by their boisterous fans. The defensive unit did hold the Panthers to just nine points in Carolina—albeit they only managed 10 against the Saints in Week 9—and the Raiders aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse. 

It's also worth noting Holmes got much of his fantasy output with a late touchdown in garbage time against the Browns last week in a 23-13 loss. That is his best bet against the Seahawks, one his fantasy owners are more likely to lose in Week 9.

Fantasy Prediction: Three receptions, 45 yards, zero TDs.

Final Verdict: This is just a terrible matchup for Holmes.

Start: Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

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All signs point to Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard sitting this week's game out. 

At least that's what Bengals.com editor Geoff Hobson tweeted after Bernard missed yet another practice due to a balky hip this week. It seems Bernard owners are going to be left out in the cold during one of the season's biggest bye weeks.

Hopefully they own his handcuff, Jeremy Hill.

Of course, that might have been difficult during fantasy drafts given Hill was taken so highly. Who wants an eighth-round handcuff?

Those who do happen to have Hill on their rosters should immediately slot him in this week. He was a pretty decent choice before Bernard's injury. Now that it looks like he will be the man in the backfield, Hill is a slam dunk for your starting lineup.

As you will see later, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been tough on defense, so Hill isn't in line for a 30-point fantasy day. But he should still have plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points, and a trip to the end zone is a decent bet.

Fantasy Prediction: 19 attempts, 85 yards, one TD; four receptions, 30 yards, zero TDs.

Final Verdict: Hill has the backfield to himself. He should be in your lineup unless you own two or three studs.

Sit: Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

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Those pesky Jacksonville Jaguars that held Ryan Tannehill down for much of the game last week go on the road to face quarterback Andy Dalton.

True, Dalton should have stud receiver A.J. Green back this week after sorely missing his best option for the past several weeks. Having Green back should certainly help, but it may not be enough to overcome how well the Jaguars defense is playing.

At first blush, Jacksonville is currently ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Yet a closer look at recent events reveals a rather miserly bunch.

Jacksonville has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks. Over the past three? The Jaguars have given up just 13.7 standard fantasy points per game—the fewest in the league.

Dalton won't be that bad this weekend, but he could be in for a slog. Even with all the quarterbacks on a bye, it might behoove you to find a safer option if there isn't already one on your roster.

Fantasy Prediction: 21-of-32, 225 yards, one TD, one INT; three carries, 10 yards, zero TDs.

Final Verdict: The Jaguars have quietly boasted a solid pass defense over the past month. Beware the red-headed Bengal.

Start: Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis Rams

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One of the most under-the-radar options at tight end this week has the San Francisco 49ers in his sights.

Jared Cook hasn't exactly lit up the fantasy football scoreboard (27 receptions, 331 yards, zero TDs), but he is a solid option for fantasy owners hurting during the bye week.

The last time Cook faced the 49ers on Oct. 13, he saw 11 targets, catching just four of them for 74 yards. He didn't get the touchdown—that one went to Lance Kendricks on his only catch—but it was a pretty good game nonetheless.

Receiver Brian Quick's season-ending shoulder injury might be a boon for Cook in terms of fantasy scoring—quarterback Austin Davis could look his way more often.

Fantasy Prediction: Five receptions, 65 yards, one TD.

Final Verdict: Cook was a big part of the offense the last time he faced the 49ers, and that could be the case again this week.

Flex Only: Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets

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Boy, there are a lot of New York Jets in this week's column.

Running back Chris Ivory had a great Week 8 versus the Bills in terms of fantasy football, scoring a pair of touchdowns in a lost cause for the Jets.

This week is also going to be a lost cause for the Jets, and the game script might not be so forgiving. 

Ivory was the beneficiary of a couple of goal-line situations that allowed him to get those touchdowns. This week, he might not get so lucky.

While Ivory is clearly the running back to own in New York, this is not the week to trust him.

Fantasy Prediction: 14 attempts, 50 yards, zero TDs; one reception, 10 yards, zero TDs.

Final Verdict: The Chiefs defense combined with a game script that won't be conducive to fantasy scoring for running backs is a bad combination for Ivory.

Start: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins

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He had been doing well in the fantasy realm for a few weeks, but Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill ran into a buzz saw last game. 

The…Jacksonville Jaguars?

That's right, this is a team that has been rather stingy to opposing quarterbacks in the fantasy department over the past several weeks. The Dolphins were able to overcome that in Week 8, winning 27-13, thanks largely to a strong defensive showing to go with a decent second half from Tannehill.

This week, Miami's third-year quarterback gets a much easier task, at least if recent history is any indication. The San Diego Chargers are coming to town, and that defense has been dealing with injuries the past couple of weeks.

Rookie cornerback Jason Verrett is out indefinitely with a torn labrum, per Michael Gehlken of U-T San Diego. San Diego will likely have cornerback Brandon Flowers back from the concussion he suffered putting a lick on Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles a couple of weeks ago, but he only recently began practicing.

Overall, the Chargers have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past three weeks, and two of those posed no rushing threat. Tannehill, meanwhile, has ramped up his running game in recent weeks thanks to the read-option.

That is not to mention he had been throwing the ball well before running into the tough Jaguars last week. He should bounce back in a game the Dolphins are likely going to need a strong offensive showing to win.

Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-35, 225 yards, two TDs, one INT; six carries, 40 yards, zero TDs.

Final Verdict: The Chargers are hurting on defense, and Tannehill has the legs to make starting him worthwhile.

Flex Only: Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals

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Scared by Michael Floyd's goose egg versus the Philadelphia Eagles last week? You're in good company.

Don't be frightened by the big fat zero the Arizona Cardinals receiver put up last week, however. After all, he was just one dropped pass in the end zone away from having a decent day. 

The reality is Floyd is the No. 2 receiver in Arizona, which is inherently valuable. He is also a big, fast option for quarterback Carson Palmer.

Now, the Dallas Cowboys have been pretty good on defense, so we shouldn't get carried away. Cracks began to develop last week, though, when the Cowboys allowed third-string quarterback Colt McCoy to carve them up (25-of-30, 299 passing yards).

Washington receiver DeSean Jackson burned the Cowboys defense for 136 yards, though he didn't get into the end zone. Floyd nearly caught one in the end zone last week, and he will get off the schneid this game. 

Fantasy Prediction: Four receptions, 55 yards, one TD.

Final Verdict: The Cowboys are a nice matchup for a guy who has the ability to go off any given week.

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