Contract Extension for Justin Houston Should Be Kansas City Chiefs' Top Priority

Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey did the right thing when he signed quarterback Alex Smith to a contract extension prior to the season. The Chiefs were able to base Smith’s deal off contracts signed in 2014 and not deals signed in 2015, when the salary cap will inevitably increase again.

Smith’s deal also presumably opened up the franchise tag for outside linebacker Justin Houston if the two sides can't come to an agreement on a contract extension before the deadline. It was an important safeguard against letting their young pass-rusher walk in free agency.

With Houston on pace to break the single-season sack record in 2014, the Chiefs need to loosen the purse strings and make re-signing him a top priority. Using the franchise tag is still an option, but it’s not as good of an option as it once was.

The Chiefs and Houston have been discussing a long-term deal for nearly a year and the two sides remain “worlds apart,” according to Rand Getlin of Yahoo Sports. Per the report, the Chiefs are now likely to let Houston walk or give him the franchise tag.

It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs allowing a 26-year-old pass-rusher like Houston to hit free agency when they can easily control his status for one more year. All signs now point to the franchise tag, but the Chiefs shouldn’t let it get that far.

If Dorsey is smart, he’ll use the franchise tag only as a last resort and he’ll find a way to close the significant gap before next season. Using the franchise tag could kill any chance the Chiefs have to keep Houston long-term, as it may drive costs to astronomical levels in 2016.

By giving Houston the franchise tag, the Chiefs only make things more expensive down the line. He would be a year older and that would put the squeeze on the dollars on the back end of any deal, but he’d still be in his prime and putting the hurt on opposing offensive tackles.

The Chiefs would also have to contend with whatever other megacontracts the top free agents sign in the coming months by waiting. The Chiefs would be letting the market dictate Houston’s value by using the franchise tag, which is unwise considering how good he has been.

Player	Games	Sacks	Sack/Game	2+ Sack Games	3+ Sack Games
J.J. Watt	40	38.0	.95	10	2
Von Miller	32	32.5	1.02	8	2
Robert Quinn	39	32.5	.83	7	4
Justin Houston	34	31.0	.91	8	4
Mario Williams	40	29.5	.74	5	2
Cam Wake	38	29	.76	5	3

Since the start of 2012, only J.J. Watt, Von Miller and Robert Quinn have more sacks than Houston’s 31. Watt and Quinn have also played more games than Houston did over that span. Only Watt has more multi-sack games since the start of 2012 than Houston, but Houtson leads the way with four games with three or more sacks.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Houston has 11 sacks, three quarterback hits and 25 hurries. Houston is by far the most productive pass-rusher at 3-4 outside linebacker per their metrics.

What makes Houston extra valuable is that he’s not just a one-dimensional pass-rusher. Houston is also very good against the run. Pro Football Focus ranks him third among 3-4 outside linebackers against the run behind only Khalil Mack and Terrell Suggs, and he’s only missed one tackle all season.

Houston also drops into coverage a fair amount for a 3-4 outside linebacker and has done well when asked to do so this season. Houston is also so disruptive that opposing offenses have trouble blocking him without getting a penalty called on them, but Houston himself has yet to commit a penalty.

Player	Overall	Rush	Cover	Run	Penalty
Khalil Mack	23 (1)	3.3 (18)	-0.7 (32)	18.9 (1)	1.5 (4)
Justin Houston	22.5 (2)	13.2 (3)	1.4 (5)	6.3 (3)	1.6 (2)
Terrell Suggs	18.7 (3)	12.9 (4)	0.3 (18)	7 (2)	-1.5 (42)
Pernell McPhee	18.4 (4)	16.2 (2)	-0.3 (26)	1.6 (15)	0.9 (11)
Elvis Dumervil	17 (5)	18.4 (1)	-0.3 (26)	-1.4 (35)	0.3 (21)

That kind of all-around production is going to be costly, but the Chiefs should be willing to pay. Rand speculates that it will cost the Chiefs at least what Watt received—or more. Unlike Watt, Houston is in a contract year and should have more leverage.

According to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, Watt signed an extension worth $100 million with $20.9 million guaranteed at signing. Another $10 million is guaranteed if he’s on the roster in 2015 and another $21 million is guaranteed if he’s on the roster in 2016. That’s a total of $51.9 million guaranteed.

The structure of the deal makes it possible for Watt to earn a lot more money, but the structure is team-friendly in that it pushes some of the guaranteed money into future years. Being that Houston is in a better negotiating position, his deal could come in even higher in guarantees, if not also total value.

Houston will age, his cost will continue to go up and the Chiefs can’t afford to lose him. It’s a recipe for disaster if the Chiefs don’t make a push to sign Houston before the franchise tag deadline.

With a Derrick Thomas-like season in 2014, it’s simply silly to choose to pay more just because the Chiefs don’t want to make a big down payment on one of the best defensive players in the entire league. Houston has earned the big payday with his play, so the Chiefs should not delay.