Georgia Football: Bulldogs' Road to Making the College Football Playoff

Georgia may be down—ever so slightly—in the first ever College Football Playoff committee rankings, but the Bulldogs aren't out by a long shot.  

And given what these Dawgs have endured over the preceding weeks, it's hard to think a No. 11 ranking will prove any more than a road bump.  After all, Georgia's last two wins came on the road against SEC opponents without the nation's best running back, Todd Gurley.

This team has survived more dire circumstances and with a generally favorable schedule ahead, the Bulldogs are in prime position to climb the inaugural rankings' ladder.

Record	Playoff Committee Poll	AP Poll	Coaches Poll	Strength of Schedule
6-1	11	9	8	22

Biggest Obstacles to Playoff Berth

With three teams in the projected playoff hailing from the SEC West, it's fair to say that division stands in everyone's way.  The Bulldogs aren't an exception in that regard.

Getting to the College Football Playoff will require perfection from Georgia henceforth.  And while Florida (who the Dawgs play this week) is always a tough out, Kentucky is much improved and Georgia Tech has shown flashes of relevancy, the Bulldogs' most blatant opposition will come from the SEC West.

Extenuating circumstances not withstanding, a November 15 game with the Auburn Tigers could prove to be an elimination game for either team.  Though the Tigers are the reigning conference champions and have looked dominant at times this season, there are still three reasons to think Georgia could win this game:

• For the first time since 2011, this annual rivalry game is being played in Athens, Georgia.
• Georgia played Auburn tremendously close on the road in 2013.  Georgia has likely progressed more as a team over the past 12 months than Auburn.
• Despite a loss last season, the Bulldogs have won six of the last matchups with the Tigers.

Additionally, if all goes to plan, Georgia will run into another hurdle from the SEC West in the conference championship game.  Though both divisions are up in the air, Georgia seems likely to face Auburn (again), Alabama, Mississippi State or Ole Miss.  

Three of those teams (Mississippi State at No. 1, Auburn at No. 3 and Ole Miss at No. 4) are currently projected to make the playoff, and the fourth team (Alabama) is playing as well as any team in the conference.

Reaching Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game won't be enough to get Georgia into the playoff.  The Bulldogs will need to claim the conference title and run through the SEC West again.

Help Needed

The most favorable part of Georgia's road to the playoff has nothing to do with Georgia and everything to do with the teams ranked ahead of the Bulldogs.  Beyond games in Georgia's control (such as Auburn and a potential SEC Championship Game), several teams may soon drop below the Bulldogs as a factor of head-to-head losses.

• Mississippi State still has Alabama and Ole Miss on its schedule.  All three of those teams are ranked ahead of Georgia, and only Mississippi State is currently undefeated.  In other words, some team(s) will soon decline.
• In addition to the trip to Georgia, Auburn still must play Alabama and Ole Miss.  Accordingly, at least two of those teams are destined to have two regular-season losses.
• TCU and Kansas State must play head-to-head as well.

In total, five teams currently ranked ahead of Georgia in the playoff rankings will lose at least one more game by virtue of matchups with other Top 10 teams.  Additionally, Georgia can hand out two more losses (one to Auburn and one to the SEC West champion) to such teams.

In light of that, Georgia doesn't really need all that much help.  The Bulldogs just need these games to happen, and Georgia needs to win.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Prediction

The remainder of Georgia's season will be defined by two factors:

1. A relatively navigable remaining schedule.
2. The return of Todd Gurley.

If the schedule shakes out the way it should (Remember: Teams can still improve dramatically—even this late in the season) and Todd Gurley does in fact get back on the field in time for the Auburn game, Georgia will finish the regular season with an 11-1 record.

At that point, Georgia will likely be ranked between No. 3 and No. 6 depending on how Auburn (who is presumed to lose to Georgia in this scenario) holds up in its other games against Ole Miss and Alabama.

Therefore, Georgia's national championship aspirations will once again fall squarely on the SEC Championship Game, just like they did in 2012.  The Bulldogs' odds of victory in that game will depend directly on the opposition.  

Unfortunately for Georgia fans, this game is shaping up to be a rematch of that 2012 game.  Like Georgia, Alabama is in a position to control its own destiny.  And like Georgia, Alabama is playing great football right now.  Expect Alabama to survive against Mississippi State and Auburn, and meet the Bulldogs back in the Georgia Dome.

Given where things stand today, that game would go the Crimson Tide's way and thus eliminate Georgia from the playoff picture.  But this Georgia team's calling card has been ongoing improvement.  

There's still plenty of time for that.

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained firsthand and all stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.