Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs: Betting Odds, Analysis and Pick

Not too long ago, Florida owned the rivalry with Georgia, winning five of six meetings. But the Bulldogs have turned the tables on the Gators, winning the last three meetings, going 2-0-1 against the spread. The 6-1 'Dawgs will try to beat 3-3 Florida for a fourth straight time when the teams meet for the big cocktail party in Jacksonville Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: Bulldogs opened as 10-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.5-30.7 Bulldogs

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

The Gators are coming off a disheartening 42-13 loss at home to Missouri in which they held the Tigers to just 119 yards of total offense but gave up four Mizzou touchdowns on returns. Florida allowed the Tigers to return the opening kickoff for a score and never recovered.

The Gators committed six turnovers, but the defense did its part, stuffing the Missouri offense to the tune of just over two yards per play. Two weeks ago, Florida put on a decent performance at LSU, losing 30-27 on a 50-yard field goal at the buzzer. The Gators rank just 99th in the country in total offense but 12th in total defense, holding foes to 313 yards per game.

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

Since losing at South Carolina back in September, the Bulldogs have won their last five games in a row, four in blowout fashion, going 3-2 ATS. Three weeks ago, Georgia, suddenly playing without Heisman candidate running back Todd Gurley, won at Missouri 34-0, and two weeks ago the 'Dawgs bolted out to a 38-6 halftime lead on their way to a 45-32 victory at Arkansas.

Toting the load in place of Gurley, freshman Nick Chubb chugged for 202 yards and two scores against the Razorbacks after going for 143 against Mizzou. And the Georgia defense, which ranks 13th in the nation against the run, held the ground-oriented Hogs to 126 yards on 37 carries.

Smart Pick

Georgia is rolling with or without Gurley, while Florida looks like a lost cause and is probably heading for a coaching change. So while this spread might seem a bit inflated, the smart choice is with the Bulldogs, minus the points.

Betting Trends

• Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when playing on the road against Georgia
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of Georgia's last 13 games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.