Sammy Watkins Is Proving Worthy of Buffalo Bills' Expensive Investment
Before the 2014 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills weren't expected to trade up for Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
At the time, the Detroit Lions were the favorites to move up, but they ultimately settled for tight end Eric Ebron at their original spot. Instead, the Bills did trade up for Watkins, giving up their 2014 and 2015 first-round picks to move into the top five.
Watkins was supposed to be the final piece of Doug Marrone's long-term play on offense.
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Having already drafted EJ Manuel and Robert Woods, with Cordy Glenn already in place at left tackle, Marrone was set to have youth and talent at crucial spots of his offense. Adding Watkins was supposed to give Manuel a No. 1 receiver.
Unfortunately for the Bills, Manuel quickly proved that he wasn't going to be a long-term option in Buffalo and found his way to the bench. Kyle Orton came in as a proven veteran who could allow the team to win games, but he isn't the kind of player who will be viewed as a franchise quarterback moving forward.
Now, with Manuel benched and no first-round pick in upcoming in the 2015 draft, it would be easy to argue that the trade up for Watkins was a mistake.
It would be easy, that is, if Watkins wasn't excelling as a rookie.
After eight games of the regular season, Watkins has 38 receptions for 590 yards and five touchdowns. He is on pace for 76 receptions, 1,080 yards and 10 touchdowns despite being just 21 years of age. He won't turn 22 until midway through 2015.
Furthermore, Watkins has produced to this level in spite of playing half of his games with Manuel, struggling with some drops and having faced Darrelle Revis.
The fourth overall pick of the 2014 draft has done very little with his performance on the field to suggest that the Bills overpaid for his services. Even though they likely need to find a new long-term option at the quarterback position, Orton is playing well enough to suggest that he can fill in for the next couple of years if required.
That should lessen the scrutiny on how expensive Watkins was and allow fans and analysts alike to marvel at his achievements on the field.
Against the New York Jets' struggling secondary in Week 8, Watkins had his most productive game of the year and should have produced even more. The rookie finished the game with just three receptions, but those three receptions went for 157 yards and a touchdown.
Orton targeted Watkins seven times.
The first of those targets was negated by a holding penalty when Watkins beat Darrin Walls on a slant route. The defensive back was too aggressive through the route and illegally took away Watkins' ability to find the football. Orton threw the ball in his direction, and the penalty converted a 3rd-and-3.
His second target wasn't really a target, but it was credited to Watkins because he was the closest receiver to the ball when Orton threw it away. Watkins was wide open on a shallow crosser, but Orton was rattled by the pressure so couldn't find him. The receiver would have had a huge amount of space to run into.
Presuming Watkins would have caught the ball in both scenarios if he was given the opportunity to, the receiver was likely going to gain at least 13 more yards on those two receptions. Neither is a big play, but Orton would soon go in search of big plays to his most talented receiving option.
For his next target, Watkins ran a sideline route that was well-covered from the start of the play. Orton forced the ball in his direction and badly overthrew him and the defender covering him.
When the Bills were trapped deep in their own territory, Orton dialed up a deep ball to Watkins on a post route when facing 1st-and-10. Watkins beat the defensive back to the inside, and there was space for Orton to lead his receiver into. But the quarterback threw the ball inaccurately.
Watkins still had a chance to make a difficult reception, but he was forced to turn back outside and work through the defensive back to try and get to the ball. He was unable to.
Two plays later, the Bills gave Watkins the same route on 3rd-and-7. He came free again, but this time Orton was able to hit him in stride. This was Watkins' first reception of the game. Even though it will be remembered for his early celebration that cost him a touchdown, he still gained 84 yards with relative ease.
It's this type of play that made Watkins a top draft pick. His speed is incredible, and his all-around natural athleticism allows him to create separation within his routes with relative ease. Throw in comfort as a catcher of the football, and Watkins is going to be a consistent big-play threat throughout his career unless defenses overcommit to taking him out of games.
As the Jets discovered, overcommitting to Watkins may not be as undesirable an option as it initially appears.
After the big play that came at the very start of the third quarter, Watkins came inches away from converting a 3rd-and-13 when he was thrown the ball underneath against a defender in space. He stretched out for the conversion but was marked just short of the first down.
He wouldn't see the ball again until early in the fourth quarter.
On 2nd-and-13, the Bills were enjoying a commanding lead and primarily looking to just run out the clock. The Jets replied to this situation with an eight-man box to set themselves up against the run. Watkins is lined up to the top of the screen, and when the safety drops into the box, his cornerback drops off the line of scrimmage.
This gives Watkins a clean release to run a slant route into space. Orton immediately looks to his receiver and releases the ball at the perfect time for it to arrive when he breaks inside.
When Watkins catches the ball, he is surrounded by Jets defenders. His slant route and the defense's setup has afforded him a pocket of space to work in, and he catches the ball quickly to give himself time to set up his run after the catch.
Importantly, Watkins doesn't hesitate.
He immediately plants his foot and makes a sharp cut against the grain of his momentum. A poor tackle attempt from the outside defensive back aids him, but Watkins easily brushes off that tackle attempt because of his strength and balance.
From there, he is able to accelerate away from the rest of the defenders on the field to score a 61-yard touchdown.
These big plays from Watkins are very impressive, but it's the ease at which they come about for him that really stands out. Even on a play when he stopped early to celebrate, he still gained 84 yards, while the fourth-quarter touchdown reception never really pushed him to the limit of his skill set.
While Watkins was knocked for the offense he played in during his time in college, he is proving to be an exceptionally good rookie receiver in the NFL because of his physical skill set. His talent as a player overrides the limitations of his supporting cast, and it should allow him to continue to prosper over the next decade or so.
Even if Orton isn't the long-term answer at quarterback, there's no guarantee that the Bills would be in position to take a top prospect in next year's draft even if they still had that first-round pick.
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