Tomoki Kameda vs. Alejandro Hernandez: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
This Saturday in Chicago, undefeated WBO bantamweight champion Tomoki Kameda defends his belt against hard-knocks veteran Alejandro Hernandez. Tomoki is the youngest of the three famed Kameda brothers and quite possibly the best.
At only 23, Kameda has already started to attract attention as an emerging star. Now signed with power broker Al Haymon, this will be Kameda's second straight fight in the United States.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Tomoki Kameda | Alejandro Hernandez |
| Record: | 30-0, 19 KOs | 28-10-2, 15 KOs |
| Height: | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Reach: | 66" | 66" |
| Weight: | 118 lbs | 118 lbs |
| Age: | 23 | 28 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Tokyo, Japan | Mexico City, Distrito Federal |
| Rounds: | 188 | 292 |
The height and reach are listed as pretty close to equal for Tomoki Kameda and Alejandro Hernandez, but Hernandez is a former flyweight, and Kameda has always fought at 118, where he looks big. Expect him to look like the bigger man in the ring.
Kameda turned professional at 17, and Hernandez went pro at 16. They are both extremely experienced for their respective ages.
Main Storylines
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Tomoki Kameda is the youngest of the three Kameda brothers. His brother Daiki is the former IBF super flyweight champion.
Eldest brother Koki is the WBA bantamweight champion and one of the most popular boxing stars in Asia. He'll also be on the card Saturday.
Tomoki looks poised to be the biggest international star of the three. Called "The Ultimate Weapon of the Kamedas" at the start of his career, he has also earned the nickname "El Mexicanito," having trained in Mexico since his amateur days, where he has become popular with the fans.
Kameda is advised by Al Haymon. In his last fight, he stole the show on the Saul Alvarez-Erislandy Lara undercard, when he stopped former champion Pungluang Sor Singyu.
Alejandro Hernandez is a fighter who truly built himself into a contender the hard way. After turning professional as a teenager, he lost his first fight. He's lost 25 percent of his fights in his career.
But he's on a three-fight winning streak and became Kameda's mandatory challenger when he captured the vacant interim belt against Daniel Rosas last June.
Strengths
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Tomoki Kameda has very quick feet and fights well on the outside behind his jab. He varies his punches and uses sharp, crisp combinations, working to both the body and head.
When an opponent is hurt, Kameda shifts quickly to the offensive, closing distance and unloading. He has very good power for a bantamweight fighter. The liver shot he stopped Pungluang Sor Singyu with last July was blistering.
Alejandro Hernandez is a rugged, busy fighter. He throws a good selection of punches and sits down well on his power shots.
Hernandez is very good at timing his opponents and finding the space to land on them between punches. He's a tough, veteran fighter, despite being only 28 years old.
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Weaknesses
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Tomoki Kameda is quick and uses the ring, but he does sometimes come to a complete stop and offer his opponent a stationary target. He uses little head movement, relying on his guard to catch punches, which leaves his body open.
Alejandro Hernandez has a bad habit of bending at the waist behind wide, lunging punches. This will make him extremely vulnerable to the uppercut, which is a very good punch for Kameda.
Hernandez maintains a good activity level, but his combinations are not fluid. He throws his punches one at a time. Hernandez has a lot of trouble fighting off his rear foot when his opponent pushes him backward.
Tomoki Kameda Will Win If...
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This is a stay-busy fight against an alphabet-soup, mandatory challenger. It's the kind of fight Tomoki Kameda needs to win with style to keep all the positive momentum he has built up.
That shouldn't be a problem for the talented champion. Kameda needs to use his legs and jab to fight on the outside, forcing Alejandro to chase him.
Kameda should use the ring and set traps for Hernandez. When the challenger comes forward, Kameda should drill him with the right uppercut and then step around the outside and throw the lead hook to the body.
When he slows Hernandez's forward momentum with the jab, he should follow up with the straight right and lead hook, looking to drive Hernandez backward and off balance.
He wants to frustrate Hernandez and get him to starting lunging out of desperation. Once that happens, Hernandez will start to open himself up to the kind of shots that can end the fight in a hurry.
Alejandro Hernandez Will Win If...
6 of 7Alejandro Hernandez has had a journeyman's career, scraping and battling every step of the way. He's been in the ring with world champions Omar Narvaez and Leo Santa Cruz and earned this shot by beating hot prospects Marvin Mabait and Daniel Rosas in his last two fights.
At 28, he's likely facing the last big break of his career, if he doesn't win. I expect him to fight with urgency. He'll need to, if he wants to have any hope of winning against Tomoki Kameda.
But he's going to need to fight with intelligence, as well as emotion. To beat Kameda, he'll need to cut off the ring on Kameda and not simply follow him, flailing away.
That's a simple thing to do, but simple is not always easy, especially when you are facing a much better athlete. Hernandez is going to need to remain patient, moving side to side behind his jab, in order to keep Kameda in front of him.
If he gets too aggressive moving forward, Kameda will easily slip around the side of him. So Hernandez has to keep Kameda in front of him, looking to time openings with his straight punches while also scoring to the body with his hooks.
If Hernandez can slow Kameda down with a smart, patient body attack over the first half of the fight, he might have a chance to take control of the fight late.
Prediction
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Tomoki Kameda is a young champion, but he's hardly untested, at least not in regard to fighters like Alejandro Hernandez. The fighter Kameda knocked out last July, Pungluang Por Singyu, was a former world champion with 50 professional fights.
Against Singyu, Kameda looked like a potential superstar. He is a talented young fighter on the rise, and there's no reason to expect anything but another glittering performance Saturday.
I expect Kameda to use his movement to frustrate Hernandez and to use his uppercuts and hooks to beat up the challenger.
Hernandez has only been stopped once in 10 fights, against Leo Santa Cruz. But he'll be very lucky to see the final bell against Kameda. If the fight does go the distance, Kameda will win by wide margins.
I also think Kameda is on a collision course with Santa Cruz. Both fighters are exciting, undefeated young champions who are advised by Al Haymon.
Haymon has put his fighters, including Santa Cruz, in some ridiculous mismatches in 2014. But if the final result gets us a fight like Kameda vs. Santa Cruz, nobody will complain.
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