Michael Carter-Williams a Reminder of Philadelphia 76ers' Risky Rebuild
By adopting a strategy of asset-hoarding and extreme salary reduction, GM Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers are banking on a bevy of factors breaking exactly their way.
Chief among them: that the injuries to Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid—the No. 6 and No. 3 overall picks in the past two drafts, respectively—will soon be forever in the rearview mirror.
Just not before the two’s season-long absences help Philadelphia double down on its lottery largesse.
Now, the lingering recovery of Michael Carter-Williams—the reigning Rookie of the Year and the Sixers’ floor general of the future—has cast into high relief just how risky Philly’s rebuilding project really is.
If rebuilding in the NBA is a high-wire act, the Sixers have tethered their tightrope to two towering skyscrapers in a winter blizzard with no net below. The most minuscule of missteps will be met with certain death. In league-speak: another decade of dwelling in the doldrums.
It was all but expected that Noel and Embiid would be sidelined as long as possible, a precaution based on reasons both medical and managerial.
Losing Carter-Williams for five-months-plus with a torn labrum in his right shoulder? That wasn’t on the agenda—neither the tear nor the timetable.
Complicating matters further, the NBA is gearing up to approve changes to the league’s lottery system that would make the odds of landing a No. 1 pick much more of a crapshoot. This despite an early defeat for the proposed legislation during a recent Board of Governor’s meeting.
Temporary setback aside, the writing is all but lit in neon on the wall: Lottery reform is coming, and the Sixers—whose vocal criticism thereof speaks volumes about the team’s perspective—may have the most to lose.
A quick look at the team’s ledger reveals why: With only Embiid’s contract officially on the books for the 2015-16 season, the Sixers stand to have an ocean liner’s worth of cap space next summer. And while Philly is sure to retain or re-sign some of its legion of young talent, the goal seems to be to have the right mix of cornerstones, cap space and tradable talent.
That last factor may be most relevant as it concerns the league’s hoped-for lottery overhaul. Indeed, there can be a big difference—in both talent and trade implications—between having the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick and, say, the No. 9 or No. 10.
From Hinkie’s perspective, having the latter almost necessarily gives him a better chance of either a) reeling in another potential cornerstone in the draft (one capable of eventually attracting top-shelf free agents, even) or b) packaging that pick in a trade for an established star.
Just how committed is Hinkie to maintaining maximum asset flexibility? According to Grantland’s Zach Lowe, not even Carter-Williams is beyond being a bargaining chip:
"They tried hard [to trade Carter-Williams] during the draft, but they couldn’t draw the trove they envisioned or guarantee that the player they wanted with an acquired pick would be there, per several league sources. Expect Philly to repeat the exercise. It’s not a shot at Carter-Williams, or even a signal that the Sixers are dying to trade him. He may well end up a long-term cog in Philly.
The team knows point guard is the most replaceable position in the league today, and it will seek out any deal that adds to its stockpile of high-value draft picks.
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Given Lowe’s chronology of events, is it possible that Hinkie and the Sixers looked to unload Carter-Williams out of concern over the wiry point guard’s long-term durability? It’s certainly possible. Then again, Philly may simply be looking to sell high in a point guard market flooded with fungible talent.
Indeed, the Carter-Williams situation puts the Sixers in a tricky position. On the one hand, they can hold him out in the hope that nothing comes of the league’s lottery designs while risking reduced returns on any trade involving the injured point guard. On the other, they can bring him back immediately upon official clearance, showcasing him for potential trades while at the same time jeopardizing their lottery chances.
Not that Carter-Williams is Philly’s only attractive asset, of course. Noel has been a revelation since hitting the hardwood for July’s Las Vegas Summer League, while Embiid—thought to be a surefire holdout—has been “progressing fantastically” after undergoing foot surgery, according to Sixers’ head coach Brett Brown, via CSN Philadelphia’s Dei Lynam.
And that’s just the upper crust. Tony Wroten, K.J. McDaniels, Hollis Thompson, Jerami Grant: Brown’s ranks are rife with intriguing prospects and high-upside talent.
From Hinkie’s perspective, Philly is more of a marble slab in need of chiseling than a haphazard pile of levers and gears. From a recent press conference, via Derek Bodner of Liberty Ballers:
"A lot of what we try to find out is to separate the known from the unknown. And right now we have lots of unknowns as we look at our players. We'll look around to try to see which ones can be keepers. Which ones will really fit in our culture, and fit in to a place where we try to be really hard working everyday, and try to be really selfless, and try to lay it on the line for a teammate. We have estimates of all those, we have guesses, but they're just guesses. We'll know a lot more, even here in the next month.
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What Carter-Williams’ injury does, then, is add yet another factor in a formula Philly has scarcely begun to find—a degree of difficulty to be somehow shoehorned between the billions already there.
Perhaps Carter-Williams will return in short order, no worse for wear and raring to replicate last season’s breakout performance. Perhaps the doubters dogging Hinkie will be proven wrong sooner than later. Perhaps in two year’s time we’ll be talking about the Sixers in the same revelatory terms as we have the Oklahoma City Thunder, those paragons of proper planning and asset management.
However Philly’s death-defying feat unfolds, you can’t say it lacked for philosophical suspense, even if the X-factors—the bones and muscles of so many young players—were only too human.
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